>I can envision a 20-person suborbital tourist craft in that timeframe. Orbital tourism of that size by then is simply not within the bounds of reason.<br /><br />(and we drift fully offtopic...) I have to disagree. 25 years is a LONG time. Mr. Bigelow is planning on having the first Nautilus stations flying within 5-8 years (giving it some slippage). After that, it just becomes an question of manufacturing new units, production-line style. And, of course, coming up with new add-on modules to make the Nautilus more useful - control blocks, aerobraking ballutes, nodes, greenhouses etc.<br /><br />It is completely conceivable in the next 25 years to have multiple orbital tourist hotels with 20-40 person occupancy, along with an array of corporate and govt. stations. The Nautilus modules appear ideal for generic housing, entertainment and research purposes, each will by their nature be outfitted onorbit. Cheap lift and water from an outside source (lunar, NEO comet) are the two enabling techs to make this practical. This can be in the form of one hotel/commercial research complex for the ultrarich (a slight progression from status quo) or something many thousands a year experience (w/ cheaper lift). Or, we fart around w/ the ISS, declining engineering interest and the governments of the world somehow keep space utilization from blossoming. The Bigelows and Musks are aiming to blow the whole thing open, someone eventually will succeed. I think the tipping point of public acceptance was SpaceShipOne's successful flights - the next real challenge is getting to-orbit human flight more affordable.<br /><br />Josh <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <div align="center"><em>We need a first generation of pioneers.</em><br /></div> </div>