How soon do you think we will put humans on Mars?

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willpittenger

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You might prefer to reply with your reasons for your vote.<br /><br /><span method="POST" action="/dopoll.php"></span> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <hr style="margin-top:0.5em;margin-bottom:0.5em" />Will Pittenger<hr style="margin-top:0.5em;margin-bottom:0.5em" />Add this user box to your Wikipedia User Page to show your support for the SDC forums: <div style="margin-left:1em">{{User:Will Pittenger/User Boxes/Space.com Account}}</div> </div>
 
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scottb50

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In 2000 I thought we could be there by 2010. If we had started then I still think we could be there by then. As we haven't started I would say we could be there 10 years after we decide we really want to go.<br /><br />Ten years ago we had all the technology we needed to do it, now we have improved that and added even more. What is holding us back is the desire to go not the ability to go. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>
 
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qso1

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I voted 2021-30 which is based on the timeline in my graphic novel. However, there is also a driver that gets humans to mars. Discovery of indigeonous life which is hard to confirm even with a sample return mission. But enough data was available to mount the human mission which was approved in 2011. The first humans landed in 2024.<br /><br />In reality, I doubt will get there much before 2050 without the life confirmation or the private sector bringing the cost of low orbit access down dramatically. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><strong>My borrowed quote for the time being:</strong></p><p><em>There are three kinds of people in life. Those who make it happen, those who watch it happen...and those who do not know what happened.</em></p> </div>
 
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qso1

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I remember when I thought (In 1974) that we'd get there by 1986. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><strong>My borrowed quote for the time being:</strong></p><p><em>There are three kinds of people in life. Those who make it happen, those who watch it happen...and those who do not know what happened.</em></p> </div>
 
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docm

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I voted 2021-30 as well. IMO either nations will team up to do it or competitive/PR pressures will force someone to do it individually. Might not even be government(s) based. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>
 
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willpittenger

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Uh, in 1974, we were already retreating from the Moon to LEO. There was also a gap from the remaining Apollo missions to the first useful STS missions. So how would anyone expect at that time us to reach Mars by 1986?<br /><br />BTW: Odd that you picked that year. We flew into (or almost into anyway) space once that year. We then spent the next two years on the ground. <img src="/images/icons/frown.gif" /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <hr style="margin-top:0.5em;margin-bottom:0.5em" />Will Pittenger<hr style="margin-top:0.5em;margin-bottom:0.5em" />Add this user box to your Wikipedia User Page to show your support for the SDC forums: <div style="margin-left:1em">{{User:Will Pittenger/User Boxes/Space.com Account}}</div> </div>
 
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qso1

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I picked 1986 because in 1974...I was 18 and did not have a full picture of how serious the post Apollo situation would turn out to be budget wise. In addition, I thought there would be a drastic turnaround with shuttle. The shuttle design was basically set in stone in 1974 but the flight rate was published as being on the order of 60 flights per year. That seemed to solve the cost of getting to orbit, a situation that I was aware of even then. I also factored in something else. I figured if a manned mars program was not approved by 1978 at the absolute latest...a 1986 landing was out of the question.<br /><br />In 1986 we did fly a Columbia mission so we did fly once in 1986 before Challenger. When I picked 86, non of that was a factor. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><strong>My borrowed quote for the time being:</strong></p><p><em>There are three kinds of people in life. Those who make it happen, those who watch it happen...and those who do not know what happened.</em></p> </div>
 
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holmec

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I voted 2051-2060 because I figured if NASA wants to get to the moon by 2025, then it should take another 25 years to get Mars. The reason is:<br /><br />1. There is a whole lot of experimenting and testing needed for all the unknowns about a trip to Mars.<br /><br />2. If many nations want to go to the moon NASA may be involved in some international effort there and that would take time. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p> </p><p><font color="#0000ff"><em>"SCE to AUX" - John Aaron, curiosity pays off</em></font></p> </div>
 
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wick07

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I picked 2031 to 2040. We are going to need a really good reason to go to Mars, we still have a lot of good exploring to do with unmanned spacecraft, the risk/reward payoff is not great enough yet for the majority of people to get strongly enough behind a Mars mission for it to happen. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#3366ff"><strong>_______________________________<em> </em></strong></font></p><p><font color="#0000ff"><em>"</em>If you are surrounded by those who constatly agree with you, then you're in an intellectual vacuum.  If you feel like trying to make a difference, you have to BE different.  How can you do that without interacting with those who are different from yourself?"</font></p><p><font color="#0000ff">-  a_lost_packet_</font></p> </div>
 
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mooware

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I picked 2101 to 2130.<br /><br />I just don't see the political will to go.<br /><br />
 
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usn_skwerl

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2040 to 2050.<br /><br />I think we're going to have a large gap because some sort of catastrophe will happen with NASA rockets, whether due to managerial issues or hardware. This will lead to probably a grounding, investigation, and possible redesign. If we're supposed to be there by 2030 according to the VSE, we will have an accident, so it'll be put on hold for 2 or 3 years. that'll lead to new practices and procedures. Rehab, if you will. Walking before running again. 2040-2050, IMO <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>
 
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j05h

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I voted 2021-2030 but want to hedge it: humans will walk on Mars about a decade after there is a reason to go. <br /><br />Things that could spur this: MSL, Phoenix or the MERs discover life, a unique resource is found, a Prize is established or the business case is closed for water/CH4 export to LEO. The motivation for the US, other industrial nation or the "international community" going to Mars appears to be lacking. Governments will not go to Mars by space-program inertia - I'd put an Apollo/ISS-type effort landing on Mars in the 2050 range, there's just no reason for them to go as of now. Discovering life puts Mars on the fast-track, otherwise there is little political will. The other scenarios create a commercial reason to go. <br /><br />Josh <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <div align="center"><em>We need a first generation of pioneers.</em><br /></div> </div>
 
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thereiwas

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I'd be interested to see how the argument would go to convince people that "there is/was life on Mars" leads to "therefore we should go there".<br /><br />As opposed to it meaning "therefore we should stay the heck away" or "who cares"?<br /><br />Now <i>intelligent</i> life on Mars, that would be something else. But then somebody would want to send missionaries to "save" them, and that never ends up well.
 
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itsfullofstars

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I think it will be 2021 through 2030 but with private money and with space agencies such as NASA providing the management and logistic support. <br /><br />Governments just wont have the needed funds .<br /><br />itsfullofstars
 
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haywood

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Governments have the "needed" funds to run a $600 Billion unnecessary war.<br />Once that ends (presuming it does) and those in power figure out that there is just as much money to be made preparing for a manned trip to Mars, the necessary funds will be made available for a mission in 2031-40.<br /><br />I used to wish that I would live long enough to see people on Mars. That's probably pushing things now (currently 55).<br />So I will just have to settle for a return to the Moon.
 
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qso1

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I voted 79-70% gov. This based on my previous timeline vote of landing by 2030. All based on both the discovery of life on mars and the ability of private industry to take over LEO transit ops by about 2025. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><strong>My borrowed quote for the time being:</strong></p><p><em>There are three kinds of people in life. Those who make it happen, those who watch it happen...and those who do not know what happened.</em></p> </div>
 
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willpittenger

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Please don't confuse this poll with previous polls. Thank you.<br /><span method="POST" action="/dopoll.php"></span> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <hr style="margin-top:0.5em;margin-bottom:0.5em" />Will Pittenger<hr style="margin-top:0.5em;margin-bottom:0.5em" />Add this user box to your Wikipedia User Page to show your support for the SDC forums: <div style="margin-left:1em">{{User:Will Pittenger/User Boxes/Space.com Account}}</div> </div>
 
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yoda9999

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I vote 2040 to 2050 for a realistic timeframe to put humans ON Mars. That means we can start manned roundtrips to Mars in 2030. We could get there in 2020-2030, but I think there will be lots of delays and testing that need to be done.<br /><br />2020 - manned mission to Moon<br />2030 - manned roundtrips to Mars<br />2040 - manned mission to Mars<br />
 
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earth_bound_misfit

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I voted 2051-60, because it ain't going to happen in my lifetime (at this rate anyhow).<br /><br />I can't private business putting any money into unless there's for them to expoilt or make a buck of it. Maybe advertising, like it won't be a US flag getting planted, but a Coca cola logo or something. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p> </p><p> </p><p>----------------------------------------------------------------- </p><p>Wanna see this site looking like the old SDC uplink?</p><p>Go here to see how: <strong>SDC Eye saver </strong>  </p> </div>
 
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keermalec

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The Vision for Space Exploration plans on setting up a permanent presence on the Moon in 2020.<br /><br />Mars and beyond is mentionned but no date is given.<br /><br />However, if Lunar Oxygen production becomes a reality, going to Mars via a LOX/LH2 powered rocket drops dramatically in price, as 88% of propellant will be lunar oxygen.<br /><br />All in all, departing from Low Lunar Orbit somewhere around 2030 involves 1.6 tons from Earth for every ton at mars capture (link).<br /><br />Departing from LEO in 10 years (using nuclear rockets) involves 3.2 tons from Earth for every ton at mars capture, or twice the lift cost.<br /><br />I therefore believe that, if we do go to Mars, it will not be before 2030 so I voted 2031-2040.<br /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><em>“An error does not become a mistake until you refuse to correct it.” John F. Kennedy</em></p> </div>
 
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keermalec

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Actually I was thinking:<br /><br />1. Build Mars ship on Earth<br />2. Launch Mars ship to Moon orbit with only LH2 on board<br />3. Refuel the oxygen from lunar oxygen in moon orbit<br />4. Launch from Moon orbit<br /><br />NB: Launching from LEO requires 3.6 km/s for a Hohmann transfer to Mars<br /><br />Launching from Low Lunar Orbit requires only 1.6 km/s for Hohmann transfer to Mars!!!<br /><br />Launching from LLO is all good... <br /><br />Only downside is you have to build a Moon base first, to mine the LOX. Zubrin was against this, but considering NASA has decided to do just this, we may as well plan along! <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><em>“An error does not become a mistake until you refuse to correct it.” John F. Kennedy</em></p> </div>
 
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