bdewoody":1d30yog0 said:
I really hope they succeed. But considering the fact that private space ventures (Space Ship One) have only managed to repeat what NASA did in the early 1960's (the Bell X-15) and pretty much the same way, the X-15 was dropped from a B-52, it will be a long time before any private venture will put humans in orbit. As far as a private venture having the first colony on the moon, I'm not holding my breath.
Maybe, maybe not. I think that commercial spaceflight has suffered the same paradigm that personal computers did during the late '70s-early '80s; i.e. why would the average Joe need a computer at home? The difference is that developing a manned rocket - even one that goes suborbital - is infinitely more complex and expensive than developing a personal computer. Steve Jobs and Steve Wozniak built the Apple I in Wozniak's parents' garage using parts bought from Radio Shack. In comparison, the SS1/WK1 combo cost somewhere around $20 million. The start up cost alone has prevented many would-be rocketeers from even beginning down the journey that Scaled Composites successfully finished.
Regardless, the Apple I was a watershed moment in the PC industry. Once people saw exactly what the average Joe could do with a computer at home, everyone wanted to jump on board. Likewise, I think that the X-prize competition was a watershed moment in commercial manned spaceflight. Now that Virgin Galactic has several hundred people lined up to take a 15 minute hop into space, more people are starting to take this new industry seriously. I don't think it will take quite as long as you think for commercial manned orbital spaceflight to fully develop.