Impacts from outside our solar sytem?

trumptor · Jan 10, 2009

We always assume that there will be and have been threats to the Earth from comets and asteroids from within our solar sytem. But are there objects in interstellar space that occassionally pose a danger? I know that interstellar space is very sparcely occupied by matter but what are the chances of running into some of it?Is it possible that at some point in the past a rogue planet has crossed through our solar system and disrupted orbits or is there a chance of it happening in the future? Has our solar system in its orbit around the galaxy's center ever gone through interstellar clouds that may have altered our solar system in any way? How likely is it that debris from a distant supernova may hit a planet in our solar system or that we may one day get close enough to another star that it causes disruptions in our Oort cloud resulting in increased bombardment of the planets?I'd assume that the chances of dangers affecting us from interstellar space are far more unlikely than from those within our solar sytem, but would also think that the amount of damage from these dangers could possibly be much greater. It'd be pretty scary to hear that a rogue planet the size of Jupiter is heading for our solar system and may cross the orbits of the inner planets in its journey through space. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> ______________Caution, I may not know what I'm talking about. </div>

BoJangles · Jan 10, 2009

All the scenarios you propose seem plausible if not probable at some point in time (past or future).  We fly through the galactic plane and get caught up in spiral arms cyclically not to mention the plethora of formidable objects lurking in interstellar space. Though as you have pointed out, the chances are indeed small that any of these will pose a real danger (at least in our short life time).Additionally, it would indeed be scary knowing such a disruption were imminent, and would make for a great book

As for the real odds or any hard numerical facts, I don’t really have any of them.<Edit>More on the book :-A small fast moving brown dwarf (previously undetected) is on a collision course with the solar system in 120 years or so. How will humanity cope with its future demise?  How will people go about their day to day lives as threat gets ever closer?  This is a story of 5 generations of the same family and their personal struggle with day to day life as the world comes to grips with its impending doom. You could use a ”Lost” type format where it is continually zooming in on the lives of particular family members in particular generations, all chopped and disjointed of course. The main plot (used as flash backs), could zoom in on a father and son struggle (generation 2 and 3) to design and build a space craft to save certain kinds of life from the (what seems like) guaranteed sterilisation of the earth This could be a trilogy, the first being about a young rebel fighter called Luke skywalker… oh , that’s been done before.Anyway *goes back to the shadows*</Edit>  <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> -------------- Let me start out with the standard disclaimer ... I am an idiot, I know almost nothing, I haven’t taken calculus, I don’t work for NASA, and I am one-quarter Bulgarian sheep dog. With that out of the way, I have several stupid questions... *** A few months blogging can save a few hours in research *** </div>

trumptor · Jan 10, 2009

Write it and I'll read it. Sounds interesting, lol. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> ______________Caution, I may not know what I'm talking about. </div>

michaelmozina · Jan 10, 2009

Replying to: <DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>We always assume that there will be and have been threats to the Earth from comets and asteroids from within our solar sytem. But are there objects in interstellar space that occassionally pose a danger?</DIV>http://www.space.com/businesstechnology/technology/cold_plasma_000724.htmlDefinitely.  Even coronal mass ejection events can pose a very severe risk to astronauts inside interstellar space.  We better figure out how to make this technology work.

<div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> It seems to be a natural consequence of our points of view to assume that the whole of space is filled with electrons and flying electric ions of all kinds. - Kristian Birkeland </div>

trumptor · Jan 10, 2009

Are you suggesting that we may get fried by a strong coronal mass ejection? It says in the article that plasma is very effective at killing off even bacterial life, but can it be possible for the sun to have a CME strong enough to endanger life on our planet?And how would this be associated with dangers from outside our solar system? Are you saying that we may be affected by CMEs from other stars? <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> ______________Caution, I may not know what I'm talking about. </div>

MeteorWayne · Jan 10, 2009

Replying to: <DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>We always assume that there will be and have been threats to the Earth from comets and asteroids from within our solar sytem. But are there objects in interstellar space that occassionally pose a danger? I know that interstellar space is very sparcely occupied by matter but what are the chances of running into some of it?Is it possible that at some point in the past a rogue planet has crossed through our solar system and disrupted orbits or is there a chance of it happening in the future? Has our solar system in its orbit around the galaxy's center ever gone through interstellar clouds that may have altered our solar system in any way? How likely is it that debris from a distant supernova may hit a planet in our solar system or that we may one day get close enough to another star that it causes disruptions in our Oort cloud resulting in increased bombardment of the planets?I'd assume that the chances of dangers affecting us from interstellar space are far more unlikely than from those within our solar sytem, but would also think that the amount of damage from these dangers could possibly be much greater. It'd be pretty scary to hear that a rogue planet the size of Jupiter is heading for our solar system and may cross the orbits of the inner planets in its journey through space. Posted by trumptor</DIV> In reality they are far,far,far,far,far,far,far,far more unlikely.   <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id. I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function </div>

trumptor · Jan 10, 2009

I did assume that the chance was very remote considering that there is an unimaginable amount of empty space even between objects within our solar system. I couldn't even begin to comprehend the extent of empty space between objects in interstellar space.But 10 billion years is a long amount of time. With 5 billion years behind us, and I'm assuming about 5 billion more to go before our sun goes through its red giant phase, wouldn't there be a credible chance of some type of interaction of our solar system with some type of interstellar body or debris? <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> ______________Caution, I may not know what I'm talking about. </div>

3488 · Jan 11, 2009

Replying to: <DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>In reality they are far,far,far,far,far,far,far,far more unlikely.   Posted by MeteorWayne</DIV> I agree Wayne, probably will never happen, though it is not impossible. Replying to: <DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>I did assume that the cha............................................... Posted by trumptor</DIV>IMO intersteller space is actually quite littered with rogue planets, comets & asteroids. Wayne is correct in saying that a Jupiter type object barrelling through the inner solar system causing mayhem eith the four inner planets is extremely unlikely, but is NOT impossible. Extremely unlikely yes, will it happen, don't know but highly unlikely. Think of this, we KNOW that rogue comets exist, those we kbow that have been thrown out of our own solar system not to mention five spacecraft on solar system exit trajectories launched by humans.There was speculation (remains unproven) that TNOs 90377 Sedna, 2000 CR105 & Comet 94/P Macholz may be intersteller bodies captured by our own Sun. Some comets like C/2006 M4 Swan are thought to be in the process of leaving the solar system forever.Comet C/2006 Swan. More on Comet C/2006 Swan. Also worth mentioning, we have seen many young stars now with proplyds (planet forming disks) & now two stars with planetary companions for sure:Fomalhault / Alpha Piscis Austrini .HR8799.Possibly also. Beta Pictoris. All of these stars have circumsteller disks& the fact large planets exist, raises the pobbility of many objects already been ejected into intersteller space from these sytems.Also: Vega / Alpha Lyrae , being a possible source of intersteller rogue bodies.So in short, yes the possiblity although very small is also very real of impacting bodies originating from outside of the solar system.  Andrew Brown. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> "I suddenly noticed an anomaly to the left of Io, just off the rim of that world. It was extremely large with respect to the overall size of Io and crescent shaped. It seemed unbelievable that something that big had not been visible before". Linda Morabito on discovering that the Jupiter moon Io was volcanically active. Friday 9th March 1979.http://www.launchphotography.com/ http://anthmartian.googlepages.com/thisislandearthhttp://web.me.com/meridianijournal </div>

MeteorWayne · Jan 11, 2009

Found this:[García-Sánchez et al.1999] used Hipparcos data to investigate close stellar encounters with the Solar system, the consequences for cometary cloud dynamics, and the evolution of the comet population over the history of the Solar System. Effects of individual star passages on comet orbits were studied through dynamical simulations. Algol was the largest perturber in the recent past (although other stars have passed even closer), passing at a distance of about 2.5 pc (~516,000 AU) about 7 Myr ago. Gliese 710 is the most significant known future perturber. At 19 pc from the Sun and approaching at about 14 km s-1, it will pass through the Oort Cloud, at about 69000 AU from the Sun, in about 1 Myr. But [García-Sánchez et al.1999] concluded that none of the predicted passages could have caused a significant disruption of the Oort Cloud, which supports the hypothesis that the currently observed flux of long-period comets corresponds to a steady-state value.  <dt><a name="gpj+99"></a>García-Sánchez et al.1999 </dt><dd>García-Sánchez J., Preston R. A., Jones D. L., Weissman P. R., Lestrade J. F., Latham D. W., Stefanik R. P. 1999, Astron. J. 117, 1042 </dd>  <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id. I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function </div>

trumptor · Jan 11, 2009

Wow, something as large as Sedna may be from outside our solar system? You said this was just speculation but has there ever been a comet or other object that was more conclusively determined to be from outside our solar system?It says on Wikepedia that we have been travelling through an interstellar cloud anywhere from 44,000 to 150,000 years so far and we have another 10,000 to 20,000 to go before getting through it. It says that effects on Earth from the cloud are cancelled out by the Sun's magnetic field and the solar wind. Does this cloud in any way affect our solar system? <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> ______________Caution, I may not know what I'm talking about. </div>

MeteorWayne · Jan 11, 2009

Replying to: <DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>Wow, something as large as Sedna may be from outside our solar system? You said this was just speculation but has there ever been a comet or other object that was more conclusively determined to be from outside our solar system?It says on Wikepedia that we have been travelling through an interstellar cloud anywhere from 44,000 to 150,000 years so far and we have another 10,000 to 20,000 to go before getting through it. It says that effects on Earth from the cloud are cancelled out by the Sun's magnetic field and the solar wind. Does this cloud in any way affect our solar system? Posted by trumptor</DIV> Nothing has been conclusively proven. There have been a few possibles, but that's about it, ranging from Scattered disk objects, to some comets (96P/Machholz), and interstellar meteoroids. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id. I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function </div>

trumptor · Jan 11, 2009

Passing through the Oort cloud at about a ly away would put Gliese 710 about 4 times closer to us than Alpha cCntauri is, right? I'd assume that this will also mean that our sun and us will be going through Gliese's own Oort cloud (is it still called an Oot cloud?). Would that be expected to significantly increase chances of impacts with planets in our solar system? I think I fail to always grasp the vastness of space so that's why I ask. I'm clueless as to whether this would greatly increase chances of collisions between objects or just slightly increase them. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> ______________Caution, I may not know what I'm talking about. </div>

MeteorWayne · Jan 11, 2009

Replying to: <DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>Passing through the Oort cloud at about a ly away would put Gliese 710 about 4 times closer to us than Alpha cCntauri is, right? I'd assume that this will also mean that our sun and us will be going through Gliese's own Oort cloud (is it still called an Oot cloud?). Would that be expected to significantly increase chances of impacts with planets in our solar system? I think I fail to always grasp the vastness of space so that's why I ask. I'm clueless as to whether this would greatly increase chances of collisions between objects or just slightly increase them. Posted by trumptor</DIV> Of course Gliese 710 is a red dwarf, and it is unknown how much of (or even if) an "Oort" type cloud it might have.AFAIAK, none has been detected, but I'm sure we will continue looking for one for the next 10 million years or so

<div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id. I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function </div>

thnkrx · Jan 11, 2009

The 'extra-solar planet encyclopedia' lists one or two 'planets' that do not have primaries (suns).

MeteorWayne · Jan 11, 2009

Replying to: <DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>The 'extra-solar planet encyclopedia' lists one or two 'planets' that do not have primaries (suns). Posted by thnkrx</DIV> I don't understand how that is related to this discussion, since none are expected to come anywhere near the solar sytem. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id. I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function </div>

michaelmozina · Jan 12, 2009

Replying to: <DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>Are you suggesting that we may get fried by a strong coronal mass ejection? </DIV>Only if we are out in space, outside of the magnetosphere.  CMEs can generate powerful radiation that is harmful to humans if they are not protected properly.  On Earth it's not a problem because we have the magnetosphere and the atmosphere protecting us from such events. Replying to: <DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>It says in the article that plasma is very effective at killing off even bacterial life, but can it be possible for the sun to have a CME strong enough to endanger life on our planet?</DIV>Not likely. I'm not aware of any sort of extintion event in Earth's history related to CME events.   Replying to: <DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>And how would this be associated with dangers from outside our solar system? Are you saying that we may be affected by CMEs from other stars? Posted by trumptor</DIV>No, I think it's more likely that we will have to deal with small high velocity particles as we get outside of our solar system, and it would be a good idea if we could vaporize some of them before they reach the hull.  The danger from CME's would be limited to areas inside the heliosphere and outside of the magnetosphere, in otherwords, everywhere in interplanetary space.   <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> It seems to be a natural consequence of our points of view to assume that the whole of space is filled with electrons and flying electric ions of all kinds. - Kristian Birkeland </div>

thnkrx · Jan 12, 2009

[/quote]I don't understand how that is related to this discussion, since none are expected to come anywhere near the solar sytem. [/quote]None of the ones discovered so far...although, as pointed out, Sedna might be such an object that was captured by our sun.  As I recollect, the free floating 'planets' in the Extra solar planets encylopedia are very roughly comparable to Jupiter.  Having the sun snag one of those on a cometary path could be...disruptive.

michaelmozina · Jan 12, 2009

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/01/090111141246.htm <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> It seems to be a natural consequence of our points of view to assume that the whole of space is filled with electrons and flying electric ions of all kinds. - Kristian Birkeland </div>

michaelmozina · Jan 12, 2009

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/01/090107174617.htm <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> It seems to be a natural consequence of our points of view to assume that the whole of space is filled with electrons and flying electric ions of all kinds. - Kristian Birkeland </div>

derekmcd · Jan 12, 2009

There's always Nibiru (aka. planet x).But on a more serious note, while not exactly "impacts" there are a couple reasonable hazards proposed that may come from outside the Solar system.The first is based on the past pattern of exinction events that seem to happen once every 26myrs or so.  A companion star proposed by Richard Mueller (physics for future presidents lecture series) may exists where its orbit gets close enough once every 26myrs (or so) that distrupts the orbits of comets in the Oort cloud (or is it Kupier belt?) which results in the frequency of planetary impacts from said comets.  While this idea is legitimate, searches have been underway for the "Nemesis", but the results have been negative and the odds are slim that this hypothesis will see the light of day.The second is the idea of gamma ray bursts from supernovae literally frying the Earth's ozone.  When stars go supernova, they release a ridiculous amount of energy.  Much of this energy is directed through through collimated beams originating from their polar axes.  Should this massive amount of Ultra High Energy Cosmic Radiation (UHECR) be focused on Earth, it could very well result in a very bad day for us.  UHECR is a very real phenomena as we detect these particles on a regular basis, though in very small amounts.  Should we end up in the line of fire of UHECR from a gamma ray burst, it will ionize the upper atmosphere. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <div> </div> <div>"If something's hard to do, then it's not worth doing." - Homer Simpson</div> </div>

secondAttempt · Jan 12, 2009

Replying to: <DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>Wayne is correct in saying that a Jupiter type object barrelling through the inner solar system causing mayhem eith the four inner planets is extremely unlikely</DIV> I would agree with this for 2 reasons.  First, a Jupiter type object barrelling through the inner solar system is extremely unlikely.  Second, even if it did, it would have to pass very close to a planet or to the sun to cause any mayhem.  The odd are it would just pass through and be a pretty sight, without significantly perturbing anything.Replying to: <DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>As I recollect, the free floating 'planets' in the Extra solar planets encylopedia are very roughly comparable to Jupiter. Having the sun snag one of those on a cometary path could be...disruptive.</DIV> It is extremely unlikely that the sun could snag free-floating planets.  The capture hypotheses have the sun capturing an object orbiting another star or brown dwarf as it passes close to the sun.  This was most likely to happen in the sun's early days when it was likely part of a star cluster when it was born.  Then close stellar encounters were more common, and had slower encounter velocities.  It would be difficult for the sun to steal orbiting members of  nearby star systems today because the encounter velocities are too high. The paper at http://trs-new.jpl.nasa.gov/dspace/bitstream/2014/20146/1/98-1008.pdf gives a formula for computing how often close stellar encounter happen.  I made a calculator based on this formula:  http://orbitsimulator.com/formulas/cse.html Using this calculator, one way to roughly guess the likelihood of a rogue planet passing through the inner solar system (~5 AU from the sun)  is to compute the likelihood that a star will pass through the inner solar system, then take a guess as to how many rogue planets are produced by each star, and multiply your result by that number.  For example, using the above calculator shows that we can expect another star to pass within 5 AU of the sun every 1.4 * 10^16 years.  So if each star on average ejects 10 rogue planets during its planet-forming phase, then on average we would have to wait 1.4 * 10^15 years to see one in our inner solar system.  If each star on average ejects 1 trillion rogue comets (10^12) then we would expect to see one pass closer than Jupiter about every 10^4 or 10,000 years. My guess at 1 trillion rogue comets per star is probably extremely high, making 10,000 years extremely low.  And this is just to pass through the inner solar system.  An actual collision with Earth is even much more unlikely.  That's one of the biggest problems of the panspermia theory: Earth getting seeded with life from beyond the solar system. Here's my webpage describing a reproduction of Alessandro Morbidelli and Harold F. Levison's numerical experiment where Sedna is captured by the sun.  These scientists favor a home-grown Sedna being perturbed into a higher orbit by a passing star over the capture hypothesis, but demonstrate that capture is at least possible under the right circumstances. --------------------------------------------------- secondAttempt = tony873004 from the old forum.

MeteorWayne · Jan 12, 2009

Replying to: <DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>secondAttempt = tony873004 from the old forum.  Posted by secondAttempt</DIV> Hey Tony, thanx and it's good to see you again!!Wayne <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id. I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function </div>

bearack · Jan 12, 2009

Replying to: <DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>In reality they are far,far,far,far,far,far,far,far more unlikely.   Posted by MeteorWayne</DIV> What about black hole gamma radiation?  I have heard that there is a good (relatively speaking) chance of Earth getting into the line of fire of such expelling of radiation, considering the gamma radiation can travel at at much greater speeds than light and greater than 4000 lights years.  <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <img id="06322a8d-f18d-4ab1-8ea7-150275a4cb53" src="http://sitelife.space.com/ver1.0/Content/images/store/6/14/06322a8d-f18d-4ab1-8ea7-150275a4cb53.Large.jpg" alt="blog post photo" /> </div>

MeteorWayne · Jan 12, 2009

Replying to: <DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>What about black hole gamma radiation?  I have heard that there is a good (relatively speaking) chance of Earth getting into the line of fire of such expelling of radiation, considering the gamma radiation can travel at at much greater speeds than light and greater than 4000 lights years.  Posted by bearack</DIV> First, Gamma Rays can not travel faster than the speed of light; in fact, since they are EM radiation, that's exactly the speed they travel.Second, I'm not sure that the "impact" you are referring to is the same as what the Original Poster had in mind. It's a different definition of impact. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id. I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function </div>

secondAttempt · Jan 12, 2009

Replying to: <DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>...Here's my webpage describing a reproduction of Alessandro Morbidelli and Harold F. Levison's numerical experiment where Sedna is captured by the sun.  These scientists favor a home-grown Sedna being perturbed into a higher orbit by a passing star over the capture hypothesis, but demonstrate that capture is at least possible under the right circumstances.-- </DIV>and I see I forgot to give the link :  http://www.orbitsimulator.com/gravity/articles/sedna.html

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