Interesting Asteroid 2009 AV

MeteorWayne · Jan 8, 2009

Currently it's the highest risk object on the JPL Sentry Risk page among recently observed objects (Torino Scale -2.59 on Feb 21,2010).It's a large asteroid, (~ 900 meters diameter) and if the best fit orbit is correct can never actually hit earth since it's aphelion (furthest distance from the sun) is inside of earth's perihelion (closest to the sun).However, the node (where it crosses the plane of the earth's orbit, i.e. the only time an impact can occur) is close to earth. It's in a highly inclined (42 degree) orbit, close to circular, and basically orbiting between Venus and the Earth's orbital distances.The uncertainties are quite large since the entire observational arc is less than a full day so far, on January 3rd.Here's the 3D orbit page from JPL:http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?sstr=2009+AV;orb=1 You can use the handle at the very bottom to zoom in, and the handle on the right to change the view from overhead in the solar sytem (which shows the orbit is inside that of the earth) to along the plane of the solar system (which shows it's large inclination).As you can see if you run the animation, the best fit orbit places in nearly a quarter of an orbit past the earth on Feb 21, 2010. The reason the risk is so high is that with such a short period of observation (only 1 day) the uncertainties in it's orbital speed are so large it could actually wind up closer the earth.It should be interesting to watch things change as new observations come in to constrain the uncertainties in the orbit.If you've got a REALLY big scope it is visible at ~ Magnitude +20 between Virgo and Libra in the early morning sky.Wayne <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id. I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function </div>

bearack · Jan 8, 2009

Replying to: <DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>Currently it's the highest risk object on the JPL Sentry Risk page among recently observed objects (Torino Scale -2.59 on Feb 21,2010).It's a large asteroid, (~ 900 meters diameter) and if the best fit orbit is correct can never actually hit earth since it's aphelion (furthest distance from the sun) is inside of earth's perihelion (closest to the sun).However, the node (where it crosses the plane of the earth's orbit, i.e. the only time an impact can occur) is close to earth. It's in a highly inclined (42 degree) orbit, close to circular, and basically orbiting between Venus and the Earth's orbital distances.The uncertainties are quite large since the entire observational arc is less than a full day so far, on January 3rd.Here's the 3D orbit page from JPL:http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?sstr=2009+AV;orb=1You can use the handle at the very bottom to zoom in, and the handle on the right to change the view from overhead in the solar sytem (which shows the orbit is inside that of the earth) to along the plane of the solar system (which shows it's large inclination).As you can see if you run the animation, the best fit orbit places in nearly a quarter of an orbit past the earth on Feb 21, 2010. The reason the risk is so high is that with such a short period of observation (only 1 day) the uncertainties in it's orbital speed are so large it could actually wind up closer the earth.It should be interesting to watch things change as new observations come in to constrain the uncertainties in the orbit.If you've got a REALLY big scope it is visible at ~ Magnitude +20 between Virgo and Libra in the early morning sky.Wayne Posted by MeteorWayne</DIV>Based upon the computer model, it looks like Venus could be in a world of hurt on 10-13-09.  They perfectly intersect at that date. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <img id="06322a8d-f18d-4ab1-8ea7-150275a4cb53" src="http://sitelife.space.com/ver1.0/Content/images/store/6/14/06322a8d-f18d-4ab1-8ea7-150275a4cb53.Large.jpg" alt="blog post photo" /> </div>

MeteorWayne · Jan 8, 2009

Replying to: <DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>Based upon the computer model, it looks like Venus could be in a world of hurt on 10-13-09.  They perfectly intersect at that date. Posted by bearack</DIV>Not even close. If you grab the handle on the right and tilt your view to above, you can see it's about halfway between earth and Venus, and if you look along the plane of the solar system you can see the asteroid is WELL below the plane of the planets. That's why I suggested looking at the different views. What you were seeing is an artifact of the particular default 3D view.In fact if you look at the nodes (the point between tha dark and light blue portions of the orbit when it crosses the plane of the solar system) you can see Venus is never in any danger.In fact the perihelion (closest to the sun) of the asteroid is 0.807 AU, while Venus' aphelion (furthest from the sun) is only 0.728 AU, so they never even come close. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id. I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function </div>

silylene · Jan 8, 2009

I'll keep a watch on this new asteroid.  (It's nice that I can finally open some threads on this forum again.) <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> petet = silylenePlease, please give me my handle back ! </div>

trumptor · Jan 9, 2009

What type of damage would this do if it hit Earth? <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> ______________Caution, I may not know what I'm talking about. </div>

MeteorWayne · Jan 9, 2009

Replying to: <DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>What type of damage would this do if it hit Earth? Posted by trumptor</DIV> Just to update, this object has been removed from the impact list for the next century. That means I'll have to figure out the energy another way (the impact page give the TNT tonnage equivalent)The impact speed would be pretty slow, since it is in a near circular orbit at 1 AU so would have a similar orbital speed to earth; any pre gravitational speed would be from the high inclination (~ 45 degrees). So I'll plug those numbers in and see what comes up a little later.Recent obs have extended the arc to 6 days and this has refined the orbital elements. In fact the object now appears to orbit outside the earth's orbit, possibly coming pretty close.MW   <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id. I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function </div>

jakethesnake · Jan 9, 2009

Hey Wayne,  Long time no talk to.  Wow, check out Feb, 22nd 2013… looks like a very close call there! <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>

MeteorWayne · Jan 9, 2009

Replying to: <DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>Hey Wayne,  Long time no talk to.  Wow, check out Feb, 22nd 2013… looks like a very close call there! Posted by jakethesnake</DIV> Hey jakethesnake, good to hear from you again!Be sure to change the perspective handle on the right side. The closest approach (even using the low resolution/ low accuracy 3D display) is 0.05 AU, which is 20 times the distance to the moon. Close, but not really that close

<div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id. I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function </div>

trumptor · Jan 9, 2009

The asteroid that was believed to have caused the K-T extinction event was supposedly 10km across and this a little less than one, which would mean it should be about 1000 times less massive if they are at the same density, which I wouldn't even know where to begin at finding out. And since you've stated that the impact speed would be slow, how much would we have to worry? Would it be able to create a short-term nuclear winter, increased volcanic activity, earthquakes or much more localized problems? <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> ______________Caution, I may not know what I'm talking about. </div>

jakethesnake · Jan 9, 2009

Yep, that’s a lot of error and I’m sure only one day of viewing time adds to uncertainty as well.  Still the closest approaches in the next 50 years with what they know at this point looks like their Feb 22nd 2013 & Feb 14th, 2038. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>

MeteorWayne · Jan 9, 2009

Replying to: <DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>Yep, that’s a lot of error and I’m sure only one day of viewing time adds to uncertainty as well.  Still the closest approaches in the next 50 years with what they know at this point looks like their Feb 22nd 2013 & Feb 14th, 2038. Posted by jakethesnake</DIV> My best advice is to give it a few more days. The observation arc is up to 6 days now, and the asteroid is well placed for early morning observations at this time, so I suspect by the time it is no longer visible the arc will be weeks long and the orbit will have much less uncertainty.If you'd like to get the exact distance based on the current orbit, you can click on the "Ephemeris" link at the bottom of the page : http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?sstr=2009+AV;orb=1 and insert the appropriate dates. That is a much more precise 3D calculation, rather than the 3D projection of a 2D solution that is used in the graphic orbit. As it says the graphic "should not be used for determining accurate long-term trajectories (over several years or decades) or planetary encounter circumstances. For accurate long-term ephemerides, please instead use our Horizons system." (The Ephemeris link I mentioned)Still, I'd suggest waiting a few more days for more orbital data.MW <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id. I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function </div>

jakethesnake · Jan 9, 2009

Cool, thanks, I will deffinitely be watch this Asteroid. Also, I find it interesting that this Asteroid orbits around the Sun at about the same distance as the earth or as you said 1 AU.  Being within the Habitable Zone albeit at an inclination of 45º this Asteroid would definitely be a cool place to check out and explore, but at only 900 meters that might be a pretty difficult object to land on. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>

MeteorWayne · Jan 9, 2009

Replying to: <DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>Cool, thanks, I will deffinitely be watch this Asteroid. Also, I find it interesting that this Asteroid orbits around the Sun at about the same distance as the earth or as you said 1 AU.  Being within the Habitable Zone albeit at an inclination of 45º this Asteroid would definitely be a cool place to check out and explore, but at only 900 meters that might be a pretty difficult object to land on. Posted by jakethesnake</DIV> You just need to land very gantly, and DON'T SNEEZE! <img src="http://sitelife.space.com/ver1.0/content/scripts/tinymce/plugins/emotions/images/smiley-laughing.gif" border="0" alt="Laughing" title="Laughing" /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id. I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function </div>

jakethesnake · Jan 9, 2009

That’s Funny! <img src="http://sitelife.space.com/ver1.0/content/scripts/tinymce/plugins/emotions/images/smiley-laughing.gif" border="0" alt="Laughing" title="Laughing" />But think about it… with all the new places that are being considered for the possibility of sustaining life, like Jupiter’s Moon Eurropa, Saturn’s Moon Enceladus, and even Mars; this type of object and it’s location to the Sun should put it pretty high on the list <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>

MeteorWayne · Jan 9, 2009

Replying to: <DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>That’s Funny! But think about it… with all the new places that are being considered for the possibility of sustaining life, like Jupiter’s Moon Eurropa, Saturn’s Moon Enceladus, and even Mars; this type of object and it’s location to the Sun should put it pretty high on the list Posted by jakethesnake</DIV> Indeed, that's why I titled the thread "Interesting" asteroid. It's in a very interesting orbit. And since it does come close to earth, hopefully we can visit it in a few decades when we have the instruments, the money, and have examined the dangerous asteroids closely enough so that we know we won't get eradicated

<div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id. I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function </div>

jakethesnake · Jan 9, 2009

Replying to: <DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>Indeed, that's why I titled the thread "Interesting" asteroid. It's in a very interesting orbit. And since it does come close to earth, hopefully we can visit it in a few decades when we have the instruments, the money, and have examined the dangerous asteroids closely enough so that we know we won't get eradicated

Posted by MeteorWayne</DIV>You would think that with events like Tunguska, Shoemaker – Levy 9, and finding Asteroids like Apophis and other “close call” NEO’s we would be a little more aggressive in protecting this planet.    Leading theories suggest that the Dinosaurs were killed off 65 Million years ago and lately they are seeing signs that maybe the Wooly Mammoths, Saber – toothed cats and mastodons may have been wiped out 12,000 years ago by an asteroid.  Even though these events are rare… they do happen, and when you have identified a threat of potential extinction and the technology is within your grasp to deal with such and event if detected early enough and you basically do nothing then I guess we just have to go with the odds maker in Vegas???  Kind of sucks!<img src="http://sitelife.space.com/ver1.0/content/scripts/tinymce/plugins/emotions/images/smiley-frown.gif" border="0" alt="Frown" title="Frown" />  <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>

tanstaafl76 · Jan 9, 2009

Well, whether the technology to deal with it would be "within our grasp" would greatly depend on the size and velocity of the asteroid in question methinks!  <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>

MeteorWayne · Jan 10, 2009

Replying to: <DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>You would think that with events like Tunguska, Shoemaker – Levy 9, and finding Asteroids like Apophis and other “close call” NEO’s we would be a little more aggressive in protecting this planet.    Leading theories suggest that the Dinosaurs were killed off 65 Million years ago and lately they are seeing signs that maybe the Wooly Mammoths, Saber – toothed cats and mastodons may have been wiped out 12,000 years ago by an asteroid.  Even though these events are rare… they do happen, and when you have identified a threat of potential extinction and the technology is within your grasp to deal with such and event if detected early enough and you basically do nothing then I guess we just have to go with the odds maker in Vegas???  Kind of sucks!  Posted by jakethesnake</DIV> Well, we are taking the first step, that of detecting such asteroids. The discovery rate has been quite high since the Catalina Survey went online (3 observatories participate) as you can see in the discovery statistics here:http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/stats/You can also see that while the discovery rate of all asteroids has greatly increased, the rate of larger (> 1km) has slowed considerably. This seems to indicate that we have discovered a large percentage of the larger asteroids. We are now catching asteroids small enough to just make a bright fireball (~ 10 meters in diameter). We've come a long way in the last decade.1998 652 NEAs (246 Large)2008 5863 NEAs (763 Large)So far none have more than 1 in a few tens of thousands chance of hitting the earth, so we can feel somewhat safer than we were before such dedicated searches began.The wild card of course would be a large comet from the Oort cloud, which could always surprise us, but they are not detectable at that distance with current technology. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id. I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function </div>

BrianSlee · Jan 10, 2009

Replying to: <DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>Well, we are taking the first step, that of detecting such asteroids. The discovery rate has been quite high since the Catalina Survey went online (3 observatories participate) as you can see in the discovery statistics here:http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/stats/You can also see that while the discovery rate of all asteroids has greatly increased, the rate of larger (> 1km) has slowed considerably. This seems to indicate that we have discovered a large percentage of the larger asteroids. We are now catching asteroids small enough to just make a bright fireball (~ 10 meters in diameter). We've come a long way in the last decade.1998 652 NEAs (246 Large)2008 5863 NEAs (763 Large)So far none have more than 1 in a few tens of thousands chance of hitting the earth, so we can feel somewhat safer than we were before such dedicated searches began.The wild card of course would be a large comet from the Oort cloud, which could always surprise us, but they are not detectable at that distance with current technology. Posted by MeteorWayne</DIV> Wayne,  Have there been any proposals floated to install an early warning system in orbit or further out to provide better early detection capabilities for Oort cloud objects? <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> "I am therefore I think" "The only thing "I HAVE TO DO!!" is die, in everything else I have freewill" Brian P. Slee </div>

MeteorWayne · Jan 10, 2009

Replying to: <DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>Wayne,  Have there been any proposals floated to install an early warning system in orbit or further out to provide better early detection capabilities for Oort cloud objects? Posted by BrianSlee</DIV> There have, but it's not clear that would provide much benefit. Earth based observations can in general provide far deeper coverage than comparable scopes that could be launched to orbit (or further out) at a reasonable price.The only applicable scopes (Hubble and Switzer) have a pretty full slate and are really not best used for that purpose.  <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id. I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function </div>

BrianSlee · Jan 10, 2009

Replying to: <DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>There have, but it's not clear that would provide much benefit. Earth based observations can in general provide far deeper coverage than comparable scopes that could be launched to orbit (or further out) at a reasonable price.The only applicable scopes (Hubble and Switzer) have a pretty full slate and are really not best used for that purpose.  Posted by MeteorWayne</DIV> How big of a ground based scope do you need to realistically have a probability of detection of large planet killers that far out? <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> "I am therefore I think" "The only thing "I HAVE TO DO!!" is die, in everything else I have freewill" Brian P. Slee </div>

MeteorWayne · Jan 10, 2009

Replying to: <DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>How big of a ground based scope do you need to realistically have a probability of detection of large planet killers that far out? Posted by BrianSlee</DIV> That's hard to say off the top of my head. I'd have to do some magnitude calculations for multi km objects at that distance

That's maybe a light year away! <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id. I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function </div>

Boris_Badenov · Jan 11, 2009

Hmmmm, in the middle to late 30's this puppy could be a candidate for capture & mining. It's approaches are quite close at that time again. Another question is what would the necessary Dv be to get a probe there & possibly back again? It has very close approaches in the next 6 years or so & something could surely be put together in that time. The Dv budget for a small probe on the lines of Hayabusa could be very small. Maybe even a Falcon 1, or another rocket in that class, could put something like that up. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <div align="center">. </div><div align="center">Never roll in the mud with a pig. You'll both get dirty & the pig likes it.</div> </div>

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