Halman, <br /><br />First, the CEV's re-entry profile is not a ballistic trajectory, the capsule generates lift (L/D's discussed in the ESAS report ranged from .3 to .4). In that report, the main chutes are planned for deployment at 10,000 ft, prior to which the capsule is descending through the various winds aloft at a fairly high speed. Data on those winds can be fed into the CEV's computer up to loss of signal (the CEV Command Module, unlike Apollo, has some maneuvering capability), and the skip return from lunar missions is expected to offer another oportunity to refine the trajectory. The ESAS report claims a crossrange capability of 100-110NM, and a predicted main chute opening well within 1.5NM's of the target point (they believe further analysis can get it down to .5NM. That leaves only the drift from 10,000 ft down to be predicted. The requirements for the landing sites were for a 5 to 6NM diameter. A ballistic re-entry (emergency procedure, spin-stabilized) will result in a water landing in the Pacific. I understand that Apollo got pretty good at hitting near to its target point (NOT the recovery ship, it was offset), and I have no doubt that the CEV will improve on that, mostly due to its ability to conduct small corrections after SM jettison. <br />Of course, a major malfunction during a lifting re-entry could result in a landing somewhere between the site and the ocean, but that has been a risk for the Orbiter as well, and the CEV has a vastly smaller "footprint" if it comes down somewhere unexpected.