But there is no shortage of deluded people nor of people willing to exaggerate the opportunities and downplay or ignore the difficulties to encourage them. It is mostly an issue of expectations - the Mars optimist seem to believe self reliance on Mars is readily achievable with existing technology and that being present there will contribute greatly to coming up with solutions to foreseeable difficulties. I don't believe that.
Me, I think it is absolutely essential that foresight and planning assure the difficulties are already solved beforehand; the colony will fail and people will die otherwise. R&D is a product of large, wealthy economies and ordinary, hands on innovation cannot substitute.
Ken—well stated.
It is of course encouraging to see the enthusiasm for what might potentially be the greatest milestone in human achievement—optimism has driven our species to new and greater hights over the millennia since the birth of our consciousness. We would need this in abundance for any long-haul space/colonization missions, whether to the Moon, Mars, Asteroids, Saturn’s Moons and so forth. However, one of the most important toolkits of all for our space-faring survivalists and DIYers, is our ‘science’.
Many arguments, analogies and metaphors for treating a manned Mars mission as similar to discovering and then surviving in The New World (America) and Antarctica, etc., are fallacies based upon shallow thinking and a lack of knowledge/depth in understanding our sciences—or perhaps even a disdain for science and scientific methodology itself; something that seems to be on the increase in America (and on the decrease in most other countries—especially Europe, China/Greater Asia and Russia).
For instance, one claim suggested that the gestation cycle of a human embryo would be relatively problem-free because ‘there is no evidence that micro-gravity conditions would cause harm to such’. However, basic biophysics/medicine allows us to *calculate* and thus foresee potential health outcomes with extraordinarily accurate results—as doctors do daily here on Earth.
Another area of great concern which seems to have been skipped over is that of our microbiome and its critical importance to our survival. Not only is it extremely important for cross-pollination and compost/regeneration of soil, oxygenation, nitrogenation, CO2 hydrogenation, and a myriad of other earth-environment symbioses, it is indispensable for the proper function of human physiology. Just a few hours of modest cosmic radiation exposure will destroy most of our gut bacteria, which can then only be replaced by the ingestion of foods/substances which contain such. This bacterial menagerie—still being explored—not only enables us to digest foods, it also nourishes and reinforces our skin (a vital organ—the importance of which many are not aware), our digestive tract, our vascular and immunological systems, as well as other symbiotic human-bacterial relationships we are still learning of—especially in the interaction with millions of other earth-species of flora and fauna.
There is currently a grave concern that the mysteriously sudden disappearance of bees throughout the world may be a result of Earth’s microbiome somehow failing at key junctures in our natural environmental processes that sustain our flora and fauna—as they have done through perhaps billions of years of evolution. There have even been murmurings within the scientific communities that we are so much a part of the Earth—so intertwined and codependent— that we cannot survive very long without it.
Regardless of the veracity of such a claim, it does appear that we essentially need to pack up a suitable portion of the Earth to take with us wherever we intend to go off-planet.
We know that, today, China is graduating a huge number of scientists and engineers—many of them educated here—that will be needed soon if they intend to achieve their stated goals of Moon and Mars colonies in the near future. Disciplines such as materials science which today is exploring new forms of graphine, carbon-nano fiber and nuclear metalurgy/nano-tech, physicists, biologists, botanists—the entire range of the known sciences are needed, including psychologists.
China has just announced their intention to build a mile-long spaceship very soon—no doubt for interstellar travel (who have they been ‘talking’ to?). One thing is sure, China, along with most other developed and developing societies, are embracing science with staggering energy and purpose.
In summary, we need to examine carefully what it will take to achieve any sort of sustainable interplanetary colony. We need to involve literally every scientific discipline we possess and set to work carefully studying, planning and testing before we can safely build a self-sustaining colony on Mars—or anywhere else.
Perhaps Elon Musk knows this (I suspect he does), and—as the world’s 4th wealthiest man—he has the ability to employ the number of scientific disciplines necessary to see his plans through. I sincerely wish him—and all of us—the best of luck.
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