MSL Delayed to 2011

centsworth_II · Oct 10, 2008

NASA Sticks to 2009 Launch for Flagship Mars Mission Most of the rover, cruise, and landing systems are built.  The remaining difficulty is the actuators -- motors operating the arm joints, wheels, and drill.  They are very complex and much larger than any of the MER actuators.  Some of the assemblies have 600 parts!   They should be delivered by the end of November.  This delivery is essential for maintaining a 2009 launch date. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>

abq_farside · Oct 10, 2008

Replying to: <DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>NASA Sticks to 2009 Launch for Flagship Mars Mission Most of the rover, cruise, and landing systems are built.  The remaining difficulty is the actuators -- motors operating the arm joints, wheels, and drill.  They are very complex and much larger than any of the MER actuators.  Some of the assemblies have 600 parts!   They should be delivered by the end of November.  This delivery is essential for maintaining a 2009 launch date. Posted by centsworth_II</DIV> That sounds like good news.  I'd love to see that thing take off in a year.  When do we start the count down thread! <img src="http://sitelife.space.com/ver1.0/content/scripts/tinymce/plugins/emotions/images/smiley-laughing.gif" border="0" alt="Laughing" title="Laughing" /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> Don't let who you are keep you from becoming who you want to be! </div>

JonClarke · Oct 10, 2008

Anything short of cancellation is good news!So long as the managers have to the courage to delay it if it really isn't ready on time rather than launch something that is not fully ready.Jon <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> Whether we become a multi-planet species with unlimited horizons, or are forever confined to Earth will be decided in the twenty-first century amid the vast plains, rugged canyons and lofty mountains of Mars Arthur Clarke </div>

montmein69 · Oct 11, 2008

The news are not so bad in this article :http://www.planetary.org/blog/article/00001689/But nothing is definitly decided at the moment ...   <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>

MeteorWayne · Dec 3, 2008

NASA to Provide Mars Science Laboratory Update WASHINGTON -- NASA will hold a briefing at noon EST, Thursday, Dec. 4, about the agency's Mars Science Laboratory, or MSL. The briefing will take place in the James E. Webb Memorial Auditorium at NASA Headquarters, 300 E Street, S.W., Washington. The MSL mission will assess a variety of scientific questions, including whether part of early Mars had an environment favorable for supporting life and for preserving evidence of life. The MSL rover will carry the largest, most advanced suite of instruments for scientific studies ever sent to the surface of the Red Planet. The briefing participants are: - Michael Griffin, NASA administrator - Ed Weiler, associate administrator for NASA's Science Mission Directorate at NASA Headquarters in Washington - Doug McCuistion, director of the Mars Exploration Program at NASA Headquarters - Charles Elachi, director of NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif. The briefing will air live on NASA Television. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id. I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function </div>

rybanis · Dec 3, 2008

lets hope everything is on track for delivery! one slip most likely means missing the 2009 launch date... <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>

MeteorWayne · Dec 4, 2008

Replying to: <DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>NASA to Provide Mars Science Laboratory Update WASHINGTON -- NASA will hold a briefing at noon EST, Thursday, Dec. 4, about the agency's Mars Science Laboratory, or MSL. The briefing will take place in the James E. Webb Memorial Auditorium at NASA Headquarters, 300 E Street, S.W., Washington. The MSL mission will assess a variety of scientific questions, including whether part of early Mars had an environment favorable for supporting life and for preserving evidence of life. The MSL rover will carry the largest, most advanced suite of instruments for scientific studies ever sent to the surface of the Red Planet. The briefing participants are: - Michael Griffin, NASA administrator - Ed Weiler, associate administrator for NASA's Science Mission Directorate at NASA Headquarters in Washington - Doug McCuistion, director of the Mars Exploration Program at NASA Headquarters - Charles Elachi, director of NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif. The briefing will air live on NASA Television. Posted by MeteorWayne</DIV> Coming up in 4 minutes.... <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id. I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function </div>

MeteorWayne · Dec 4, 2008

Replying to: <DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>Coming up in 4 minutes.... Posted by MeteorWayne</DIV> Delayed to 2011...Too much risk for 2009. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id. I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function </div>

MeteorWayne · Dec 4, 2008

Replying to: <DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>Delayed to 2011...Too much risk for 2009. Posted by MeteorWayne</DIV> scribblenotes:It has been decided to delay until the 2011 launch window (Oct-Dec 2011).While they may only miss the 2009 window by a day or a week or a month, they will not be ready to risk the mission in time for a 2009 launch. The next opportunity (haha) is 2011.Anomlies in actuator motors are the current (haha) unresolved problem, and it would be too rushed to try and launch by 2009. There are 31 on the MSL, 60 flight ready will be delivered and 45 engineering models. Only 1 of the flight ready ones have been delivered, and only 19 of the engineering models.Bottom line, delivery delays, problems in testing, time for proper lifetime testing, etc. They might be able to do it by 2009 but it would be rushed, and you only get one shot to have it all work. Better to delay, give more opportunity to resolve problems and more extensive testing.Developmental delays:Avionics, Actuator Controllers, Actuators, Sample Handling (lessons learned from Phoenix)What is an actuator? Motor/gearbox assemblies that drive the wheels, operate the joints, handle samples, etc.Some of them have over 500 parts.Most recent problem is excesssive braking, either drag when not supposed to be engaged, or inability to unlock the brakes.Don't understand the problem yet, might next week, but might not. Basically, let's not rush, let's take the extra 26 months and make sure we are confident the vehicle will work.Most of it is built and delivered, undergoing some sytem environmental testing now.More testing and repair is not a bad thing...replaceing suspect components, welds, solar cells.The delay will add ~ $400 million to the lifetime cost, but part of that is recovered from funds not used in 2009 and 2010. Current Lifetime mission cost $2.2-2,3 billion.This is a Cassini Class mission, not a Phoenix class one.There will be some pain in Mars and Planetary science to accomodate this slip and budgetary adjustments, but it's far better than rushing or cancelling the mission.Another announcement, US and ESA have committed to work together toward a US/ESA sample return mission. Far future. Nobody can afford such a mission ($5+ billion) alone.Delay will also allow time for two upgrades, a cleaning system, and examination of sample handling issues learned from Phoenix.I'll be back to fix typos.MW    <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id. I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function </div>

rybanis · Dec 4, 2008

Thought so! Very unfortunate, though I do understand their reasons for doing so. 2 years is a long time to wait... <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>

MeteorWayne · Dec 4, 2008

Replying to: <DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>Thought so! Very unfortunate, though I do understand their reasons for doing so. 2 years is a long time to wait... Posted by rybanis</DIV> Darn that Newtonian Gravity thingy!

<div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id. I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function </div>

3488 · Dec 4, 2008

Replying to: <DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>scribblenotes:It has been dec......................... Posted by MeteorWayne</DIV>Actually this is excellent news Wayne. I know two years is a long wait, but at least now time is on the mission's side. Things now do not have to be rushed or second guessed (not as though JPL work like that anyway). I would rather this delay, than cancellation (which I would try & do something about) or MSL ending up as a useless hulk on the Martian surface. I wonder what the delay will mean for the landing site options? I know that not all launch windows favour the whole planet equally, like the 1999 launch window, favoured the Martian high southern latitudes (the lost MPL), the 2001 & 2003 ones favoured the equatorial & tropical regions (MERs, & the lost Beagle 2), 2007 favoured the high northern latitudes (Phoenix Mars Lander).I suppose it depends also on the EDL to be used & fuel margins.I will be back with some more info. Andrew Brown.  <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> "I suddenly noticed an anomaly to the left of Io, just off the rim of that world. It was extremely large with respect to the overall size of Io and crescent shaped. It seemed unbelievable that something that big had not been visible before". Linda Morabito on discovering that the Jupiter moon Io was volcanically active. Friday 9th March 1979.http://www.launchphotography.com/ http://anthmartian.googlepages.com/thisislandearthhttp://web.me.com/meridianijournal </div>

3488 · Dec 4, 2008

Planetary Society article on the details of MSL delay. Looks like the Russian Phobos-Grunt with the Chinese Yinghuo-1 will launch during the October 2009 launch window. Here are the Martian Northern Hemisphere Seasonal Dates from the 2009 - 2014 period:Spring Equinox: Tuesday 27th October 2009.Summer Solstice: Thursday 13th May 2010.Autumn Equinox: Saturday 13th November 2010.Winter Solstice: Saturday 9th April 2011.Spring Equinox: Wednesday 14th September 2011.Summer Solstice: Friday 30th March 2012.Autumn Equinox: Sunday 30th September 2012.Winter Solstice: Sunday 24th February 2013. Spring Equinox: Thursday 1st August 2013. Summer Solstice: Saturday 15th February 2014. Autumn Equinox: Monday 18th August 2014.Winter Solstice: Monday 12th January 2015. So lets say, December 2011 launch, arrival lets say August 2012, will make the MSL arrival occur during Northern late Summer / Southern late Winter. Looks like would favour a tropical landing site???Andrew Brown.  <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> "I suddenly noticed an anomaly to the left of Io, just off the rim of that world. It was extremely large with respect to the overall size of Io and crescent shaped. It seemed unbelievable that something that big had not been visible before". Linda Morabito on discovering that the Jupiter moon Io was volcanically active. Friday 9th March 1979.http://www.launchphotography.com/ http://anthmartian.googlepages.com/thisislandearthhttp://web.me.com/meridianijournal </div>

JonClarke · Dec 4, 2008

Definitely better  than the alternatives, which are a big hole in the ground, a lump of useless metal, or cancellation, <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> Whether we become a multi-planet species with unlimited horizons, or are forever confined to Earth will be decided in the twenty-first century amid the vast plains, rugged canyons and lofty mountains of Mars Arthur Clarke </div>

MeteorWayne · Dec 5, 2008

Replying to: <DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>Definitely better  than the alternatives, which are a big hole in the ground, a lump of useless metal, or cancellation, Posted by jonclarke</DIV> Emily Lakdawalla's much more detailed blog:http://www.planetary.org/blog/article/00001761/One question she did not get to ask she got answered later:"I did get an answer from Dwayne Brown, the NASA SMD public affairs officer, on the comm question. He wrote: "The orbiting assets that are expected to be available to support MSL operations when it arrives at Mars (on the revised schedule) include MRO, Mars Express, and Mars Odyssey. Although two years later, it is still expected that these orbiters will be in place and available for communications relay support for MSL. Having multiple relay-capable orbiters in place allows the continuation of MSL support if one (or even two) of them should become inoperable. In the very unlikely event that all three orbiters should become unable to provide comm relay support, the MSL rover still has the ability to utilize direct-to-Earth (DTE) communications. Albeit slower, the MSL mission could be completed utilizing the DTE link only." <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id. I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function </div>

JonClarke · Dec 7, 2008

All I can say is, at 2.4 billion, the mission will have to be an astounding success.  It is going to have to  achieve the equivalent of 5 or 6 MERs.Even though it will collect 2-3 times the data, it will still have to cover 2-3 times the distance.Maybe there are diminishing returns with large, complex unmanned missions?Jon <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> Whether we become a multi-planet species with unlimited horizons, or are forever confined to Earth will be decided in the twenty-first century amid the vast plains, rugged canyons and lofty mountains of Mars Arthur Clarke </div>

frodo1008 · Dec 7, 2008

Replying to: <DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>All I can say is, at 2.4 billion, the mission will have to be an astounding success.  It is going to have to  achieve the equivalent of 5 or 6 MERs.Even though it will collect 2-3 times the data, it will still have to cover 2-3 times the distance.Maybe there are diminishing returns with large, complex unmanned missions?Jon Posted by jonclarke</DIV>As the mission increases in complexity so does the cost.  This is not necessarily a direct ratio however.  It is not just the amount of data, but the complexity of obtaining that data that drives the cost.A sample return mission for instance is going to cost at least twice the cost of the MSL, or come in at the $5 billion dollar level.  Which is why I suspect that this will have to be an international effort as the cost will be so high that even NASA will not be able to afford to go alone on it.That is also why when I read the cost estimates of such as Dr. Robert Zubrin for a manned mission, I laugh hilariously!His estimates (and those of the "Let us go to Mars First" people are off about an order of magnitude from any reasonable costs.  I would say that even going the very dangerous route of sending just one failable space craft is going to run at least twice the cost of either Apollo, the shuttle, or the ISS.  So that would put it into the $200 billion dollar range!  Which is still a lot lower than NASA's original cost estimates, but is at least in the ball park.  Especially when you consider the difficulty of a manned mission when compared to ANY robotic one, even a sample return.IN order to really do it right however, we are going to have to use the resources of not only Mars itself (Zubrin's great contribution to this type of thing), but also use the resources of the moon to be able to build the fleet of ships that would ensure mission success in such an enterprise.  The ONLY way to really being the costs of large space projects down to reasonable levels is to actually use the energy and materials that are out in space itself.  No way are we going to be able to always haul materials up out of the deep gravity well of the Earth and be able to afford a true space faring civilization!  !t just is not going to happen! Sorry about getting somewhat off of topic, but we are somewhat discussing the costs of space missions, now and in the future,

JonClarke · Dec 8, 2008

Replying to: <DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>That is also why when I read the cost estimates of such as Dr. Robert Zubrin for a manned mission, I laugh hilariously!His estimates (and those of the "Let us go to Mars First" people are off about an order of magnitude from any reasonable costs.  I would say that even going the very dangerous route of sending just one failable space craft is going to run at least twice the cost of either Apollo, the shuttle, or the ISS.  So that would put it into the $200 billion dollar range!  Which is still a lot lower than NASA's original cost estimates, but is at least in the ball park.  Especially when you consider the difficulty of a manned mission when compared to ANY robotic one, even a sample return. </DIV>It may be counter intuitive, but crewed missions are not more expensive per kg sent to Mars than unscrewed missions.  Apollo cost $395 thousand for each kg sent to out of LEO whereas MSL will cost somewhere in the order of 1.3 billion So MSL is more than  3 times as expensive as Apollo per kg. These are inflation adjusted figures, BTW.  Top end uncrewed missions are insanely expensive. The only reason why crewed missions cost more is because they are bigger. Using an Apollo figure, Mars Direct (90 tonnes beyond LEO) would cost $36 billion, which is reasonably close to the original estimate of $30 billion (inflation adjusted).  Since Apollo had to develop everything from scratch, whereas any crewed Mars mission will not, Apollo costs are probably a conservative guide.Replying to: <DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>IN order to really do it right however, we are going to have to use the resources of not only Mars itself (Zubrin's great contribution to this type of thing), but also use the resources of the moon to be able to build the fleet of ships that would ensure mission success in such an enterprise.   </DIV>This is about the worst way to do it.  It means you not only have to build a spacecraft to go to Mars, you have to build a lunar settlement that can build it.  Since it will take thousands of people to build a mars mission at a minimum (more like tens or even hundreds of thousands, you are talking about lunar cities by the time you factor in families and support infrastructure.  While lunar cities are a great idea, we don’t need them to go to Mars.Replying to: <DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>The ONLY way to really being the costs of large space projects down to reasonable levels is to actually use the energy and materials that are out in space itself.  No way are we going to be able to always haul materials up out of the deep gravity well of the Earth and be able to afford a true space faring civilization!  !t just is not going to happen!  </DIV>In the long term you are right.  But it is not all or nothing.  We already rely almost entirely on the space environment for power.  Mars missions will probably rely on the Mars environment for their propellants.  Some stage after that we will develop space manufacturing.  But no spacefaring civilisation can rely entirely on space.  There are many advantages to living at a bottom of a gravity well, and there are some commodities that only Earth can supply.  But that is another story!Jon <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> Whether we become a multi-planet species with unlimited horizons, or are forever confined to Earth will be decided in the twenty-first century amid the vast plains, rugged canyons and lofty mountains of Mars Arthur Clarke </div>

MSL Delayed to 2011

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