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Flight 4 did not land, it sank in the ocean. Since Mars has no oceans it was a failure, sinking is not generally referred to as a success (see Titanic). That said spacex has literally claimed that every test was a success even though none landed properly which is why the FAA has not approved the vehicle for human flight. China may be more lenientI'm pretty sure flight 4 was a success, considering that it accomplished all its goals and pushed Starship's development along.
Also, there are many things which can't be mathematically predicted, but still happen.