New SpaceX site & Dragon launch schedule

[dreada5]

50/50<br /><br />I think by now they'll really want to get a launch off, but at the same time they have to bear in mind that important customers are looking on and a failure will impact confidences.

 

[edkyle98]

>>"SpaceX proposes its first launch of Falcon 9 to occur only a few months before its first Falcon 9 launch of a Dragon spacecraft. I was pointing out that Gemini Titan proceeded differently. Dozens of Titan II flights took place over a period of two years before the first Titan II Gemini launch took place." <<<br /><br /> />"You are repeating the Jeffrey Bell error... <br /><br />...of comparing the flight history of cutting edge technology from once upon a time -- to the difficulty of recreating 50 year old, well understood technology today. "<<br /><br />I'm not suggesting that SpaceX should fly two dozen Falcon 9s (Falcon 9, not "Falcon IX", BTW) before it launches a Dragon. I'm just pointing out that historically there has been more than a few months between the first launch of a new launch vehicle and the first launch of a human-type spacecraft on that new launch vehicle - with the obvious exception of NASA's many-billions-dollar space shuttle program. <br /><br />Worldwide launch vehicle reliabilty rates have improved since the early 1960s, but nearly all of that improvement occurred before 1970 or so. SpaceX has yet to show whether it will suffer early 1960s failure rates or whether it will match the post-1970 reliability standards. It hasn't even managed a success with its tiny Falcon 1 yet, let alone with a nine-engine launch vehicle that will weigh more than the basic EELV variants at liftoff.<br /><br /> - Ed Kyle

 

[j05h]

I agree with Ed's analysis, especially that SpaceX is proposing an extremely agressive launch campaign. SpaceX needs to be congratulated for keeping development lean and mean. Also, the "first" Dragon (assuming a successful F9 first flight) could be little more than a boilerplate or structural test article. The capsule development, however, already seems to be at an advanced stage, so unit 1 might be fairly capable. Here's hoping for the Falcon 1 flight.<br /><br />Josh <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <div align="center"><em>We need a first generation of pioneers.</em><br /></div> </div>

 

[gunsandrockets]

"It [SpaceX] hasn't even managed a success with its tiny Falcon 1 yet,..."<br /><br />That may change very soon. Delays with the Falcon 1 program have had much more to do with arranging access to launch facilities than problems with the Falcon 1.<br /><br />"... let alone with a nine-engine launch vehicle that will weigh more than the basic EELV variants at liftoff."<br /><br />That is misleading. The Falcon 9 is very comparable to the EELV, and in fact Falcon 9 masses less than the Atlas V despite the fact the Atlas V uses a liquid hydrogen fuelled second stage. The only reason the Falcon 9 weighs more than the Delta IV is because the Delta uses hydrogen in both it's first and second stages. <br /><br /><br />

 

[no_way]

the launch day is coming up fast and there are no updates from Kwajalein .. makes me worry

 

[rocketman5000]

To my recollection there wasn't really that many last time, and really no other launch company gives a blow by blow account

 

[rocketman5000]

the other post about Falcon 1.1 stated the static test had been completed.

 

[rybanis]

Totally praying it up that it goes well. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>

 

[no_way]

yeah, hobbyspace reported on static test as well.<br /><br />my prediction is that this time it will reach significant altitude, but wont make the desired orbit.<br /><br />Not trying to be negative, im hoping they succeed, but the gut feeling says "not quite there yet"

 

[comga]

themanwithoutapast: "What is a lunar flyby good for, except if you are actually working on a system that would allow a lunar landing?"<br /><br />A vehicle capable of a free return trip around the moon is in general also capable of flying to the Earth-Moon Lagrange Point 1. <br /><br />Several groups, including Bigelow, have discussed EML1 as a staging area for trips to the lunar surface. So if they develop a lunar lander, then there is a reason to go to EML1 without one of your own.