Non asteroid - 2010 KQ mystery

[silylene]

This has the highest probablity for impact I have seen (since the tiny rock which entered over western Africa 6 months ago).... 56% ! in the year 2036. Fortunately, 2010 KQ is quite small, 6 meters, so it's impact will "only" be Tunguska class.

Before you get too concerned, the known measurement arc is very short. Probably new data will reduce the risk. But it is so dim, it will be lost soon from observation. This will be an interesting asteroid to watch.

2010 KQ JPL Sentry
year 2036
number impacts 1
probability 5.6e-01
Palermo Score -2.12 -2.12
Torino Score 0
JPL: "Analysis based on 60 observations spanning 8.8342 days (2010-May-16.16161 to 2010-May-24.99585)."
Diameter approximately 0.006 km. from mean, weighted H=28.9

 

[MeteorWayne]

Re: Risky asteroid 2010 KQ

It is now no longer on the Sentry risk page. Something was fishy about it since the Vinf I saw this morning was 0.00 km/sec. Don't know whether it was bad data, or something that made Otto Matic throw up..

We'll see.

And BTW, 6 meters isn't even Tunguska class, more like 2008 TC3 class that left a few kg of scattered meteorites.
MW

 

[silylene]

Re: Risky asteroid 2010 KQ

Yeah, you are right, about 10x smaller than a Tunguska class. Still will make very nice fireworks.

I noticed it was on your risky asteroid thread several days ago, but a very low probability.

 

[silylene]

Re: Risky asteroid 2010 KQ

interesting!

Unidentified Object That Buzzed Earth is Space Junk, Not Asteroid, NASA Says
By Tariq Malik
SPACE.com Managing Editor
posted: 28 May 2010
02:56 am ET
A small object that zipped by Earth this month is most likely just a wayward piece of space junk left over from an interplanetary mission that launched in times past, NASA officials said Thursday.

The unidentified object, known only as 2010 KQ, flew past Earth on May 21 at a distance just beyond the orbit of the moon, which is about 238,900 miles (384,402 km) from our planet. It is now slowly moving away from Earth.

After a careful analysis of its trajectory through space, NASA scientists concluded that 2010 KQ is space junk from an upper-stage rocket that launched a spacecraft to another destination in our solar system. It is likely just a few meters in size, they found.

"The orbit of this object is very similar to that of the Earth, and one would not expect an object to remain in this type of orbit for very long," said Paul Chodas, a scientist at NASA's Near-Earth Object Program Office at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif., in a statement.

Chodas did not speculate on exactly what mission the rocket remnant may be left over from.

Mystery object 2010 KQ

2010 KQ was discovered on May 16 by astronomer Richard Kowalski from an observatory in the mountains north of Tucson, Ariz., as he participated in the Catalina Sky Survey, a NASA-sponsored effort to monitor the cosmos. NASA tracked the object for five days until it made its closest approach.

Follow up observations by astronomer S. J. Bus at the Infrared Telescope Facility atop Mauna Kea in Hawaii took a look at the object's spectral characteristics, which did not match any known asteroid categories – hinting that it is of human manufacture.

The small size estimate for 2010 KQ is based on its relative dimness in observations. The object has an absolute magnitude (a measure of brightness) of 28.9. For comparison, a magnitude 1 object shines about 100 brighter than a magnitude 5 one.

And this is not the last Earth has seen of 2010 KQ. The rocket remnant will return in 2036, but poses little risk of hitting the Earth and no chance of surviving the fiery inferno of atmospheric entry, Chodas said.

"At present, there is a 6 percent probability that 2010 KQ will enter our atmosphere over a 30-year period starting in 2036," Chodas said. "More than likely, additional observations of the object will refine its orbit and impact possibilities. Even in the unlikely event that this object is headed for impact with Earth, whether it is an asteroid or rocket body, it is so small that it would disintegrate in the atmosphere and not cause harm on the ground."

 

[MeteorWayne]

Here's the sbdb page on the object:

http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?sstr=2 ... ;cad=1#cad

 

[portugal]

Probably one of the last stage of some mission around the 80's.

 

[Baloop62]

Or could its Possibly be and Alien Probe Flyby

Probably not, but its possible

 

[Admiral_Lagrange]

WOW !! What a thread ! If I put my ex into orbit she'd get more post thsn this and make a bigger impact .

But it would all still be spaced junk.

 

[Hiberniantears]

Sources inside the government are still saying they don't know what this object is, only that it is not an asteroid, or any other type of natural orbiting object. Telemetries for all known rockets and rocket boosters have been searched, and this thing is not on the list. Rumor has it that this is one of the lost Cosmonauts from the early Soviet Space Program: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lost_Cosmonauts

We would have run into these poor bastards eventually, given the number that orbit the sun... A tragic story.

 

[nimbus]

I'd never heard of such a thing. Thanks a lot Hiberniantears.

 

[Anonymous_John]

I don't believe in any phantom cosmonauts. And how would it explain this? With no disrespect to Yuri Gagarin, he didn't quite make one complete orbit. All components of any prior manned launch vehicle would surely have re-entered Earth's atmosphere long since. Not left the Earth Moon system. Something they would never have been designed to do.

 

[drwayne]

I know there is an Apollo third stage (SIVB) that is in a heliocentric orbit that wanders near the earth from
time to time, including some short term stays in Earth orbit. For that matter, one of the Ascent stages is
also in a heliocentric orbit.