Somewhat Risky Asteroid 2010 TM, Oct 2010 (2004 BV1)

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M

MeteorWayne

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Thread's been sleeping for a while, so here's an object to wake it up.

2010 TM, discovered Oct 2 has a cumulative Palermo Scale rating of -2.58, with PS -2.75 for an impact on Nov 7 of next year. (1 in 22.7 million impact odds). The arc is only 1.0715 days (12 obs) so this is super preliminary. There are currently 169 potential impacts between 2011 and 2108. It's a biggie, estimated at 411 meters. It is currently 3rd in risk on the JPL Sentry risk page (pushing 2010 RF12 to 12th place).

http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/

It does not show in the NEODyS database at all.

MW

Edit 10/4 AM: With this morning's update, 2010 TM has been added to the NEODyS database, but not the risk list using the same 12 observations.

Edit2&3 10/4 PM: another update and 2010 TM has been added to the NEODyS risk page, with a PS of -4.05 on Nov 6, 2011 and 16 other impacts through 2077. It is 18th on the current risk list at NEODyS. (The NEODyS list is ranked by max PS, whereas JPL Sentry is ranked by cumulative PS).
 
M

MeteorWayne

Guest
Re: Newly Discovered PHA's

Just to show how poorly the orbit is known from the short arc, here's the parameter block from JPL:

JPL Sentry numbers (Calculated by Otto Matic :) )
Element Value Uncertainty (1-sigma) Units
e .2887025548252564 +/-0.13222
a 1.173408321199191 +/-0.88395 AU
q .8346423410157695 +/-0.47519 AU
i 13.04837289451745 +/-4.7413 deg
node 88.90693826230566 +/-31.86 deg
peri 202.4751202859574 +/-101.06 deg
M 72.88142294612726 +/-150.37 deg
tp 2455378.508947047990
(2010-Jul-01.00894705) +/-87.908 JED
period 464.2716579194013 +/-524.62 d
1.27 +/-1.436 yr
n .7754080910588276 0.87619 deg/d
Q 1.512174301382613 1.1391 AU

Earth MOID = .145444 AU

NEODyS parameters (Using the same observations):

Value 1-σ variation Units
a 1.17343 +/-1.019 AU
e 0.288698 +/-0.1527
i 13.048 +/-5.477 deg
Ω 88.91 +/-36.8 deg
ω 202.478 +/-116.6 deg
M 17.049 +/-100.9 deg

(No 1 sigma given for these)
Perihelion 0.8347 AU
Aphelion 1.5122 AU
Asc. node-Earth separation 0.4845 AU
Desc. node-Earth separation -0.16704 AU
Earth MOID 0.14498 AU
Orbital period 464.287 days



I'll pick out a few to drive home the point :) (Using JPL calcs)
a (semimajor axis) 1.17 +/- 0.88 AU (0.29 to 2.05 AU)
q (perihelion) 0.83 +/-0.48 AU (0.35-1.31 AU)
i (inclination) 13.0 +/-4.7 deg (8.3- 17.7 deg)
P (Period) 464 +/- 525 d (!!!!!), 1.27 +/- 1.44 Y (!!!!)
Q (aphelion) 1.5 +/- 1.1 AU (0.4 to 2,6 AU)

The poorly known orbit is the only reason there's any risk at all, and explains the disparity between the JPL and NEODyS risk guesses...

"Why are the results published by NEODyS not the same as those published by Sentry?
The differences between the two systems are generally not substantial, and in some sense they are reassuring. Independent systems using different software and theoretical approaches are not expected to produce the same results from statistical searches. Experience has shown that there is excellent agreement between the two systems for the more serious potential collision detections.
One of the differences between the two systems stems from different approaches to computing the impact probability. This computation is rough by its very nature, and different techniques may be used; impact probabilities different by a factor of ten or so are not extraordinary.

Another important variation is that Sentry uses a different sampling strategy, one that should detect nearly all potential impacts with probability greater than 10-8 (1 in 100 million), and does not expend much effort pursuing less likely cases, although it may find some anyway. In any case, nothing with impact probability below 10-10 (1 in 10 billion) is published by Sentry. In contrast, NEODyS may not detect as many potential impacts at probabilities below 10-6 (1 in 1 million), but in certain cases it can detect very low probability events that Sentry does not."
 
E

EarthlingX

Guest
Re: Newly Discovered PHA's

Well, one thing is certain - it's out there :) ;)
 
M

MeteorWayne

Guest
Re: Newly Discovered PHA's

EarthlingX":1cxrcjnn said:
Well, one thing is certain - it's out there :) ;)

:D Yeah, that's about how much we can say with certainty!

A single observation could remove it from the risk page entirely, or make it an object worth watching (due to it's size).

As of this moment, it has been unobserved for nearly 3 days, with no new data reported.
 
M

MeteorWayne

Guest
Re: Newly Discovered PHA's

2010 TM only 3 more observations, but the arc is now 3.9698 days so the orbit is much better defined. EMoid came way down (orbit is much closer to earth) but risk decreased; from JPL cumulative PS -4.16 from 78 impacts from 2022-2110, max -4.69 on June 27, 2046 (1 in 53 million impact odds).

e .3479397065811017 +/-0.011581
a 1.41072303034815 +/-0.028106 AU
q .9198764731016125 +/-0.0059211 AU
i 11.29020136101735 +/-1.0715 deg
node 96.77550505264185 +/-1.1667 deg
peri 222.0537766355179 +/-1.3637 deg
M 42.20443179310785 +/-2.7019 deg
tp 2455401.750873483966
(2010-Jul-24.25087349) +/-4.3014 JED
period 612.01358360641 +/-18.29
1.68 +/-0.05008 yr
n .5882222382690094 +/-0.017579 deg/d
Q 1.901569587594688 +/-0.037885 AU

Earth MOID = .0224188 AU

NEODyS:

a 1.41078 +/-0.03142 AU
e 0.347957 +/-0.01294
i 11.29 +/-1.198 deg
Ω 96.778 +/-1.304 deg
ω 222.056 +/-1.524 deg
M 359.262 +/-2.831 deg

Absolute Magnitude (H) 19.5 mag
Slope parameter (G) 0.15 mag
Perihelion 0.9199 AU
Aphelion 1.9017 AU
Asc. node-Earth separation 0.6898 AU
Desc. node-Earth separation -0.03117 AU
Earth MOID 0.02211 AU
Orbital period 612.053 days
Date of orbit computation Oct 7 09:23
 
S

Solifugae

Guest
Re: Newly Discovered PHA's

MeteorWayne":2rotodxd said:
an impact on Nov 7 of next year.

My birthday. I was getting all excited for a while.
 
M

MeteorWayne

Guest
Re: Newly Discovered PHA's

Yes, so sorry :) The more refined orbit has shifted the descending node (when the orbit crosses the plane of the earth's orbit) of closest approach from early November, to now June 27 to July 3 over the years...

I told you the earlier orbit was a WAG! :lol:
 
M

MeteorWayne

Guest
Re: Newly Discovered PHA's

Only 4 more observations (19 total), but a lengthening arc, now 5.0365 days. Increased risk, for fewer potential impacts (now 69 between 2023 and 2110 JPL Sentry). Sentry cumulative PS -3.28. Highest PS impact 6/28/2027 PS -3.79 (NEODyS PS -3.98). Sentry ups H to 19.1 (517m dia), NEODyS 19.3 (460m).

JPL Sentry elements:

e .3640105093422392 +/-0.012625
a 1.453338520888086 +/-0.033297 AU
q .9243080256529169 +/-0.0035987 AU
i 12.00125440488491 +/-1.0248 deg
node 96.82488260641269 +/-0.70294 deg
peri 222.9956268732281 +/-0.76638 deg
M 41.51553591041766 +/-1.4881 deg
tp 2455400.699933756336 +/-3.3205 JED
(2010-Jul-23.19993376)
period 639.9537730898523 +/-21.992 d
1.75 +/-0.06021 yr
n .5625406320550819 +/-0.019332 deg/d
Q 1.982369016123254 +/-0.045417 AU

Earth MOID = .0154155 AU

NEODyS elements:

a 1.4534 +/-0.03628 AU
e 0.364027 +/-0.01375
i 12.001 +/-1.116 deg
Ω 96.827 +/-0.7659 deg
ω 222.998 +/-0.835 deg
M 359.886 +/-2.038 deg

Absolute Magnitude (H) 19.3 mag
Slope parameter (G) 0.15 mag
Perihelion 0.9243 AU
Aphelion 1.9825 AU
Asc. node-Earth separation 0.73615 AU
Desc. node-Earth separation -0.02086 AU
Earth MOID 0.01494 AU
Orbital period 639.994 day
 
M

MeteorWayne

Guest
Re: Newly Discovered PHA's

More obs, higher risk. I'm going to split 2010 TM into it's own thread, as it's cluttering up this one with the level of detail only a few of us appreciate.

26 observations over 6.0688 days. Sentry cumulative PS -3.08; Max -3.52 (1 in 6 million impact chance) on 6/29/2027. 43 possible impacts between 2025 and 2110. NEODyS risk is now about the same for that date, PS -3.53. NEODyS has 12 possible impacts between 2027 and 2090, up from 5 yesterday. Estimates size down to 496 m diameter.

JPL Sentry Elements

Element Value Uncertainty (1-sigma) Units
e .3696387859933524 +/-0.0098107
a 1.469202568186438 +/-0.027662 AU
q .9261283145036878 +/-0.0031712 AU
i 12.29916658046086 +/-0.71007 deg
node 96.80278790725114 +/-0.3663 deg
peri 223.2984842954583 +/-0.52278 deg
M 41.71872261312101 +/-0.83721 deg
tp 2455400.121160557413 +/-2.0518 JED
(2010-Jul-22.62116056)
period 650.4605246661273 +/-18.37 d
1.78 +/- 0.05029 yr
n .5534540319488001 +/-0.015631 deg/d
Q 2.012276821869189 +/-0.037887 AU
Earth MOID = .0128512 AU

NEODyS:

a 1.46926 +/-0.02941 AU
e 0.369654 +/-0.01043
i 12.299 +/-0.7547 deg
Ω 96.805 +/-0.3894 deg
ω 223.301 +/-0.556 deg
M 0.208 +/-1.202 deg

Absolute Magnitude (H) 19.4 mag
Slope parameter (G) 0.15 mag
Perihelion 0.9261 AU
Aphelion 2.0124 AU
Asc. node-Earth separation 0.75321 AU
Desc. node-Earth separation -0.01698 AU
Earth MOID 0.01222 AU
Orbital period 650.501 days
 
M

MeteorWayne

Guest
Re: Somewhat Risky Asteroid 2010 TM, Oct 2010

Suday update (before I check Monday's)

29 obs over 6.9984 days. Slight risk increase. JPL Sentry cumulative PS -2. 50 potential impacts 2025-2110. Highest risk events 6/28 2027 (Sentry PS -3.42, NEODyS -3.52), 2042 (Sentry -3.75, NEODyS -3.78), 2044 (Sentry -3.77, NEODyS -4.16)

JPL Elements:

Element Value Uncertainty (1-sigma) Units
e .3696387859933524 +/-0.0098107
a 1.469202568186438 +/-0.027662 AU
q .9261283145036878 +/-0.0031712 AU
i 12.29916658046086 +/-0.71007 deg
node 96.80278790725114 +/-0.3663 deg
peri 223.2984842954583 +/-0.52278 deg
M 41.71872261312101 +/-0.83721 deg
tp 2455400.121160557413
(2010-Jul-22.62116056) +/-2.0518 JED
period 650.4605246661273 +/-18.37 d
1.78 +/- 0.05029 y
n .5534540319488001 +/-0.015631 deg/d
Q 2.012276821869189 +/-0.037887 AU

Earth MOID = .0128512 AU
 
M

MeteorWayne

Guest
Re: Somewhat Risky Asteroid 2010 TM, Oct 2010

Monday update, now 31 obs over 7.991 days. Risk about the same, Senty cumulative PS -2.94 for 49 VI's between 2025 and 2110. A shift however in the highest risk ones, now 2044 ranks highest (Sentry PS -3.50, NEODys -5.03), 2042 next (Sentry -3.66, NEODyS -3.67), then 2027 (Sentry -3.73, NEODyS -4.00), then 2040 (Sentry -3.89, NEODyS -4.18). NEODyS
 
M

MeteorWayne

Guest
Re: Somewhat Risky Asteroid 2010 TM, Oct 2010

:!: :!: :!: Ding Ding Ding ******** Ding Ding Ding****** :!: :!: :!: 2004 BV1= 2010 TM

Big news on the 2010 TM 2010 front.

It has been identified as 2004 BV1. So now there were 44 observations in 2004, but the arc is extended to about 6.5 years with the 31 from 2010.

That data is being assimilated, there should be a much more refined orbit released shortly with new elements and new risk estimates.

MW
 
M

MeteorWayne

Guest
Here are the currently shown 2004 BV1 elements from 44 obs over 29 days in Jan-Feb 2004

e .3645424078440877 +/-0.00081582
a 1.461336619759933 +/-0.00028024 AU
q .9286174497219067 +/-0.0010236 AU
i 12.10241019514115 +/-0.013571 deg
node 96.81436928553801 +/-0.0054376 deg
peri 223.0660278887994 +/-0.048528 deg
M 2.703558420145485 +/-0.57729 deg
tp 2455395.654293723008
(2010-Jul-18.15429373) +/-1.0333 JED
period 645.243781942501 +/-0.1856 d
1.77 +/-0.0005081 yr
n .5579286621193358 +/-0.00016049 deg/d
Q 1.994055789797959 +/-0.00038239 AU

Earth MOID = .0114687 AU
 
M

MeteorWayne

Guest
Here's the revised JPL Sentry orbit :

# obs. used (total) 73
data-arc span 2459 days (6.73 yr)
first obs. used 2004-01-16
last obs. used 2010-10-10
planetary ephem. DE405
SB-pert. ephem. SB405-CPV-2
condition code 2
fit RMS .4839
data source ORB
producer Otto Matic
solution date 2010-Oct-11 09:12:01


Additional Information Earth MOID = .013302 AU

Element Value Uncertainty (1-sigma) Units
e .3673636397561094 +/-9.9668e-06
a 1.462763970547585 +/-1.0132e-06 AU
q .9253976742231258 +/-1.3986e-05 AU
i 12.16312813420243 +/-0.0010248 deg
node 96.82857939027997 +/-0.00053962 deg
peri 223.1903588354695 +/-0.0035234 deg
M .04181714650586978 +/-0.0030933 deg
tp 2455400.424939456896
(2010-Jul-22.92493946) +/-0.0055525 JED
period 646.1893690822276 +/-0.00067139 d
1.77 +/-1.838e-06 yr
n .5571122293628913 +/-5.7884e-07 deg/d
Q 2.000130266872044 +/-1.3854e-06 AU

Now that's a precise orbit!!!!

Waiting for the risk page to be updated....
 
M

MeteorWayne

Guest
based on the new NEODyS page for 2004 BV1, would not be surprised if 2004 BV1/2010 TM vanished from the risk pages altogether.... It's not listed on the NEODyS risk page. It may take some time to assimilate the data.

http://newton.dm.unipi.it/neodys/index. ... &n=2004BV1

from NEODyS page:

a 1.46276 +/-1.035e-06 AU
e 0.367364 +/-1.018e-05
i 12.163 +/-0.001046 deg
Ω 96.829 +/-0.0005512 deg
ω 223.19 +/-0.003598 deg
M 0.042 +/-0.003159 deg

Absolute Magnitude (H) 19.5 mag
Slope parameter (G) 0.15 mag
Perihelion 0.9254 AU
Aphelion 2.0001 AU
Asc. node-Earth separation 0.74612 AU
Desc. node-Earth separation -0.01853 AU
Earth MOID 0.0133 AU
Orbital period 646.189 days
Date of orbit computation Oct 11 19:55

Optical observations (Discarded) 75 (2)
Radar observations (Discarded) 0 (0)
Arc length 2459 days
Unobserved 2 days
 
S

silylene

Guest
MeteorWayne":3qhfwkin said:
based on the new NEODyS page for 2004 BV1, would not be surprised if 2004 BV1/2010 TM vanished from the risk pages altogether.... It's not listed on the NEODyS risk page. It may take some time to assimilate the data.

good guess!
 
M

MeteorWayne

Guest
2010 TM still shows on the Sentry risk page, while 2004 BV1 does not, the risk page apparently is treating them as two separate objects, yet the JPL small body data base has combined them. For example, the 2010 TM risk page still only shows 31 observations over a 7.9991 day arc, yet the SBDB page shows 2004 BV1=2010 TM with 76 obs over 6.73 years (The total of the 2004 BV1 and 2010 TM obs and arc)

From NEODyS (2010 TM no longer exists in their database) the combined data set (Now 2004 BV1 only) has zero risk, yet the Sentry risk page still treats 2010 TM as a separate object.

I beez confused... :? ????

Historical note, from the Sentry removed objects list, with object and date removed...


2004 BV1 2004-01-29 14:14 UTC
 
M

MeteorWayne

Guest
And now finally, the story ends as the JPL Sentry removed objects list is updated...

2010 TM 2010-10-13 13:25 UTC
 
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