Post your most *optimistic* predictions for manned space

[kdavis007]

In rebuttal to an earlier thread go ahead and post your ahead and post your optimistic predictions for manned space.....

 

[h2ouniverse]

2009: New physics. A way to get a reaction from the substrate of spacetime is discovered<br />2011: The moon base is cancelled, to re-direct money for more efficient, more innovative ways to colonize other worlds<br />2019: First in orbit demonstration of the new propulsion<br />2021: 1st Von Neumann's machines are built<br />2024: First tests of genetic modification of human genome to incorporate DNA-self-repair ability of Deinococcus Radiodurans<br />2028: Volunteers accept to become the first Homo Radiodurans<br />2032: Swarms of micro-Von Neumann's machines are deployed on Mars, building a sustainable base<br />2034: The mission of the Radiodurans Astronauts is launched, reaching Mars few weeks later.<br />2050s: The Kuiper Belt is colonized thanks to now mature new propulsion, VN machines<br />

 

[kelvinzero]

I pretty much agree with H2O, apart from dissing the moon <img src="/images/icons/wink.gif" /><br /><br />To avoid repeating him, here is my 'minimalist' approach to optimism.<br /><li> A company announces technology in tomorrow's paper that makes a self replicating factory plausible relying on only moon materials.<li> We begin the robotic colonisation of the moon. The process is exponential and requires no further input from earth apart from a growing number employed as teleoperators.<li> Within a decade the moon's solar farms are visible by the naked eye. Components constructed on the moon are launched into orbit using mass drivers. A handful of humans work on the moon in decent sized habitats.<li> Over the next two decades the moon is converted to a solar powered 3D printer, able to produce basically any component and launch it into space. Space Solar Power becomes common, using moon materials.<li> Earth gains cheap access to LEO using laser launch technology, and more beamed power and industry than it knows what to do with.<li> We begin building massive Oneil style colonies because we are running out of ideas of what to do with all that industry. Space Solar Power continues to grow exponentially but we no longer need to beam it down to earth. Most industry and increasingly more population has moved into space.<li> Meanwhile the exploration of the rest of the solar system has proceeded rapidly using large numbers of robotic probes and massive manned expeditions.<br /><br />I call this minimalist because everything springs from the von neuman breakthrough. This does not need to be a magical technology such as building components by manipulating atoms, it could be a hundred tons of equipment for performing various techniques in smelting, lathing, sintering, welding that happen to be sufficient to construct all the tools requred for those techniques.</li></li></li></li></li></li></li>

 

[qso1]

ah, equal time, good concept.<br /><br />2011:<br />First truly earthlike world discovered orbiting Alpha Centauri "A". This world is convieniently located (Just under 5 ly) and earthlike enough to provide impetus for renewed worldwide interest in human spaceflight.<br /><br />2018:<br />First lunar base established.<br /><br />2021:<br />Orbital commercial spaceflight tourism begins, or has gotten well underway.<br /><br />2024:<br />First human on mars, a project fueled by discovery of organisms on an earlier unmanned mission.<br /><br />2156:<br />First humans depart for earthlike world orbiting Alpha Centauri "A". <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><strong>My borrowed quote for the time being:</strong></p><p><em>There are three kinds of people in life. Those who make it happen, those who watch it happen...and those who do not know what happened.</em></p> </div>

 

[holmec]

let's see:<br /><br />2008 all goes well and New Space companies achieve their goals, ie SpaceShipTwo flying.<br /><br />2014 Orion flies successfully.<br /><br />Before 2025 Bigelow has more than one company visiting one of their orbital modules.<br /><br />2025 Moon landing.<br /><br />2030 Some company makes a space ship for tourists to orbit the moon and beyond using a Bigleow inflatable module and developed refueling engine.<br /><br />Also NASA starts to use more commercial space for Space access and concentrates on exploration. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p> </p><p><font color="#0000ff"><em>"SCE to AUX" - John Aaron, curiosity pays off</em></font></p> </div>

 

[spacefire]

2007: Spacefire wins the lottery<br />2010: Spacefire Aerospace Industries is born<br />2015: SAI secures massive investor funding for it's RLV SSTO project the Aerospace Cruiser<br />2020: Maiden flight of Aerospace Cruiser, 100 tons to LEO for $100/kg in 2007 money<br />2030: first flight of the first SAI Spaceborne Freighter, able 100 tons from LEO to LMO for $100/kg in 2007 money.<br />2050: Spacefire and family and friends board the SAI Relativistic Starship going to Alpha Centauri at 0.9c. By now human lifespan is 200 years and virtual immortality is achieved via awareness transfer to machines.<br /><br /><br /><br />watch that not happen lol <img src="/images/icons/smile.gif" /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p>http://asteroid-invasion.blogspot.com</p><p>http://www.solvengineer.com/asteroid-invasion.html </p><p> </p> </div>

 

[holmec]

WOW! Very nice Spacefire. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p> </p><p><font color="#0000ff"><em>"SCE to AUX" - John Aaron, curiosity pays off</em></font></p> </div>

 

[vt_hokie]

Next week, extraterrestrials arrive at Earth to say, "Hey, dumbasses, this is how it's supposed to be done!" <img src="/images/icons/smile.gif" />

 

[centsworth_II]

This is indeed the MOST optimistic prediction possible!!! <img src="/images/icons/laugh.gif" /><img src="/images/icons/laugh.gif" /><img src="/images/icons/laugh.gif" /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>

 

[ckikilwai]

Life is discovered on Mars, world opinion supports a manned mission to Mars.<br />NASA, ESA, Roskosmos, and the Chinese space agency get huge funds.

 

[Boris_Badenov]

2010;<br />SpaceX & Bigelow are both successful in their attempts to place hardware & personnel in LEO. <br /><br /> 2012;<br />The first operational VASMIR engine is attached to a Bigelow station & is used for a propulsion buss. All future Bigelow modules use this engine for propulsion & station keeping.<br /> <br /> 2015;<br />Bigelow has 3 to 5 separate stations in LEO dedicated to manufacturing, industrial research & pharmaceutical investigation.<br /><br /> 2020;<br />A Bigelow station, assembled at Earth/Lunar L1 is successfully placed on the Moon. Mining Lunar platinum begins. Several more bases are established in the next 10 years.<br /><br /> 2025;<br />A corporate mission to Mars is undertaken & orbits the Planet for several weeks & lands/docks with Deimos & confirms the presence of water ice. A sample is mined & returned to LEO.<br /><br /> 2030;<br />A Manned landing is made on Mars. Manned exploration of the Asteroid Belt begins.<br /><br /> Hows that for optimistic? <img src="/images/icons/smile.gif" /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <font color="#993300"><span class="body"><font size="2" color="#3366ff"><div align="center">. </div><div align="center">Never roll in the mud with a pig. You'll both get dirty & the pig likes it.</div></font></span></font> </div>

 

[sponge]

2015 Private enterprise gets serious about space craft research and pillages NASA,s brain stocks to help them in their endeavours.<br /><br />2022 Branson takes a space walk on the moon. First person to have a beer on the moon.<br /><br />2030 Competiton for space tourism at an all time high, school leavers are getting into degrees which are complimentry to the cause.<br /><br />2043 First manned mission to Mars, takes two months to get there. Land safely set up camp, stay two months and return to the earth. New propulsion system a bewonderment of physics.<br /><br />2060 Full time base on the moon and a common launch station for Mars trips and General tourism.<br /><br />2075 New propulsion system leads humans to be able to start to explore nearby stars with unmanned probes within one generation or less.<br /><br />2100, People living on the moon fulltime, though not many, mainly scientist, and private research groups. Mars has established a small sustainable eco system for 100 people to live there indefinately, and are starting tours for the rich. Mining companies begin to lobby for tenament agreements.<br /><br />2115 Large asteriod hits the earth wiping 4/5ths of our civilisation, the witnesses from the moon say the explosion was spectacular, and are glad they went to university and got themselves a degree that landed themselves out of harms way.<br /><br />2150, The remaining people on the earth die due to the nuclear winter, and the people on the moon have to move to Mars as that is only place with a sustainable eco system, as the moon people were regularly supplied by the earth.<br /><br />2200, Who Knows <img src="/images/icons/laugh.gif" /><br /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><em><u>SPONGE</u></em></p> </div>

 

[no_way]

Most optimistic ? <br />Either Armadillo, Masten, Blue Origin or TGV gets to orbit and back in this year or the next.<br />Everything else follows.

 

[spacefire]

very optimistic sponge <br /><br /><br /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p>http://asteroid-invasion.blogspot.com</p><p>http://www.solvengineer.com/asteroid-invasion.html </p><p> </p> </div>

 

[kdavis007]

LOL!!!!

 

[eaglesindiana]

I don't agree with those predictions. I think:<br />2016- manned mission to Mars<br />2038-colonization of Mars<br />2042-leave Mars for Europa<br />2057-colonization of Europa<br />2063-leave Europa for Enceladus (one of Saturns icy moons)<br />2074-colonization of Enceladus<br />2083-leave Enceladus for Titania (one of Uranus's icy moons)<br />2089-colonization of Titania<br />2096-leave Titania for Triton (one of Neptune's icy moons and most famous)<br />2102-colonization of Triton<br />2108-leave Triton for Charon (Pluto's lone icy moon)<br />2113-colonization of Charon<br />2129-leave Charon for other dwarf planets in the Kuiper Belt<br />2133-colonization of dwarf planets in the Kuiper Belt<br />2178-leave dwarf planets in the Kuiper Belt for other solar systems in our galaxy

 

[h2ouniverse]

IMO Europa and Enceladus are not good picks<br />1) you can contaminate potential exolife habitats<br />2) they are frankly inside Jupiter's or Saturn's gravity wells (very expensive to get in and to get out)<br />3) Europa's surface is exposed to very hard radiations (in Jupiter's radiation belt)<br /><br />If this is for water you have ice on almost any body (no pun) of the Outer Solar System. Better to pick smaller bodies (if possible not a moon) that are more accessible delta-V-wise. E.g. Ceres, or KBOs