<blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr /><p>I'm not talking about good (or bad) scientists, I'm talking about good (or, in this case, bad) models. A good model makes accurate predictions. A bad model encounters frequent surprises and challenges to its fundamental assumptions.<p><hr /></p></p></blockquote><br /><br />Model A fails to predict Event Z. Ergo, Model A should be completely discarded?<br /><br />I disagree that the Dirty Snowball is incompatible with the observations. You seem to think the Dirty Snowball believes that there is no primordial matter available from which to acrete a comet. Why do you believe this?<br /><br /><blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr /><p>A model is not "good" when it has to have new variables appended to save it. In fact, it's not the same model at all...it's a new one with more variables. This is bad. Bad, bad model. Ask Occam.<p><hr /></p></p></blockquote><br /><br />Occam's Razor says nothing about such a situation. Occam's Razor is not about discarding the baby with the bathwater, as you wish to do. Occam's Razor says that if there are two options for explaining a particular observation, which cannot be distinguished by the available evidence, then the prudent course is to choose the simpler. That is not what you are proposing. You are proposing discarding an entire model because of a minor perceived weakness.<br /><br /><blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr /><p>The point is that if you have two models and one predicts later observations accurately, and another doesn't, a good scientist favors the model that did NOT need to be altered in response to new data.<p><hr /></p></p></blockquote><br /><br />But the Exploded Planet Hypothesis does not predict the data any better than the Dirty Snowball.<br /><br /><blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr /><p>Original comet models expected "pristine" (i.e. undifferentiated) materials. This belief persisted until we actually started observing comets closely. Yes, yo</p></blockquote> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p> </p><p><font color="#666699"><em>"People assume that time is a strict progression of cause to effect, but actually from a non-linear, non-subjective viewpoint it's more like a big ball of wibbly wobbly . . . timey wimey . . . stuff."</em> -- The Tenth Doctor, "Blink"</font></p> </div>