I do think asteroid mining is the real space enterprise prize - real resources of reliably high commercial value.
I'm inclined to put the ability to (robotic-remote) mine and produce the consumables (fuel/reaction mass) for in-space transport between asteroid and LEO first, as a necessary foundation for success. That is because I expect fuel/RM to be the single biggest mass requirement and sourcing that from Earth is a huge ongoing cost that needs to be avoided. When a round trip can deliver materials from asteroids to LEO and return the spacecraft and materials to the asteroid (to refuel there) with barest minimum of materials from Earth there is potential for profitability. Which can include providing materials like water to space stations on the side. I see that capability to run in-space rocketry entirely on in-situ consumables to be almost as important as avoiding dependence on live astronauts.
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