A
aaron38
Guest
What if SpaceX were to act like a transportation company and sell one way tickets to Mars, to settle the frontier the way it's always been done? When European colonists went to settle the new world, they didn't plan on going back. They went to stay for the rest of their lives. And as Musk himself has said he wants to retire on Mars, he'll probably want company.
Space hotels in LEO are nice and all, but there's a huge difference between spending a fortune on a one week vacation vs. an entire new world. If people are leaving Earth for good, then they can afford to spend their entire Earthly fortunes on the trip. That could be the business model that supports the Merlin2 and larger FalconX designs. There would be a situation akin to St. Louis in the 1800's, with rich businessmen spending all their money on supplies, then heading out into the wilderness. A boomtown would be created, and R&D dollars would follow.
The technology developed for their trips plus the beachhead they create on the surface makes it that much cheaper for the next groups to follow. And the frontier would be open. Groups could begin pooling resources to purchase seats that become increasingly cheaper, especially as hardware is left in space. A VASIMR ship minus cargo could be remote piloted back to Earth after dropping off it's passengers, to be refeuled and make multiple trips in it's lifetime.
And as Musk himself said: "One of the long-term goals of SpaceX is, ultimately, to get the price of transporting people and product to Mars to be low enough and with a high enough reliability that if somebody wanted to sell all their belongings and move to a new planet and forge a new civilisation they could do so."
There is a lot of work to be done on Mars, and I know there are people who would willingly spend the rest of their lives doing it, building a new life on the frontier. It's not the way we've been thinking about space exploration at all, but it makes sense. I just wonder what the reaction will be when someone finally decides to do it...
Space hotels in LEO are nice and all, but there's a huge difference between spending a fortune on a one week vacation vs. an entire new world. If people are leaving Earth for good, then they can afford to spend their entire Earthly fortunes on the trip. That could be the business model that supports the Merlin2 and larger FalconX designs. There would be a situation akin to St. Louis in the 1800's, with rich businessmen spending all their money on supplies, then heading out into the wilderness. A boomtown would be created, and R&D dollars would follow.
The technology developed for their trips plus the beachhead they create on the surface makes it that much cheaper for the next groups to follow. And the frontier would be open. Groups could begin pooling resources to purchase seats that become increasingly cheaper, especially as hardware is left in space. A VASIMR ship minus cargo could be remote piloted back to Earth after dropping off it's passengers, to be refeuled and make multiple trips in it's lifetime.
And as Musk himself said: "One of the long-term goals of SpaceX is, ultimately, to get the price of transporting people and product to Mars to be low enough and with a high enough reliability that if somebody wanted to sell all their belongings and move to a new planet and forge a new civilisation they could do so."
There is a lot of work to be done on Mars, and I know there are people who would willingly spend the rest of their lives doing it, building a new life on the frontier. It's not the way we've been thinking about space exploration at all, but it makes sense. I just wonder what the reaction will be when someone finally decides to do it...