I am impressed by your reply...and thank you for writing such detailed opinion.
I can't say that I was totally right, but once i was present on maintenance of RD-107 for Soyuz after its test run on factory. So, before installing it, it required the turbopump overhaul (even it worked just 30 sec). I witnessed, that was a very complicated, time and resource consuming job. It took 18 days. From other side, I can't imagine a super-reliable, reusable thing which rotates at 25,000 rpm and pumping hundreds liters of cryogenic liquid with pressure above 150 bars
- the most expesive thing btw
. It will need an overhaul each time and it cost a lot.
That was easy to make napkin calculations of cost for SpaceX, but that was only napkin calculations
as its difficult to objectively cost it as SpaceX is a company with non-transparent pricing, so we go by public information - launch cost (there are suspicuous fluctuations).
Launch of Falcon 9 with declared cost of $62 mil was launched with GPS IIIA-1 for $84 mil. But strangely DART scientific probe launch cost was $69 mil. But more bigger level was with Falcon Heavy prices - declared price of launch was $150 mil, but US Air Force contract for 1 launch - price was $316 mil. Besides, only government subsidies for SpaceX in 2020 was around $880 mil.
I say this not that i do not believe in Reusability - it works perfect, but the price paid for it - i doubt that it is profitable. It seems that the lower launch cost is covered by subsidies and some unclear pricing for some contracts.
I dont say anything bad - E.Mask is a great person, and SpaceX is a miracle. But if you want to drive a Mercedes, you have to pay much more than the price of Toyota Yaris
We have to believe what they want us believe in
))))
As for methane - you are right, clogging will be eliminated, but thats the cryogenic propellant to use with a creogenic oxidizer (oxygen). I understand that methane is available on Mars and other planets, but usage of both cryogenic components will increase the price in total again (second cryogenic plant+storage+ safety things). Methane has lesser density - means bigger tanks etc.
It will sound like I believe that the Earth is flat, but I think untill our civilization will invent something different than chemical propellants for rockets, we have to stick to storable propellants and deal with their safety issues.
I was thinking why Soyuz and Proton are still used, they were born in 1950-s -60-s? The reason is - we dont need anything better
. The thing is doing well what it was created for and the launch prices are fixed and relatively low.
Falcon 9 and Proton M can be compared and have relatively same paylod capacity. Prices are also almost same. But Proton is simple like steam engine and Falcon 9 is complicated from engineering point of view. Not much reduced by reusability.
Political side of SpaceX business - its another side of this question. After crysis in Ukraine-Russia realtionship and sunctions, NASA needs an alternative orbital transport provider for Sattelites launch and ISS taxi. And on my opinion, most probably that is why SpaceX has payloads to make business.
I really hope, SpaceX will make to Mars. That will be an amazing achevement of humanity and Mask himself. I want to see what they will find there, can't wait.
Thank you for your reply. I really enjoyed reading it.