Spy satellite to make uncontrolled re-entry.

[MeteorWayne]

<p><BR/>Replying to:<BR/><DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>....As I recall, the official estimates showed that it would take maybe 30 days for 90 percent of the pieces to reenter.... <br />Posted by billslugg</DIV></p><p>That's not what I remember bill.</p><p>I believe they were stating that everything would be down within "a few orbits" which would imply 24 hours or less (16-17 orbits). I've been bactracking and trying to read some articles, but haven't found anything that would suggest anything like 30 days. They shot it down at an altitude where that should have happened. What went wrong? Why are satellites in 800 km orbits being endangered? To my recollection, that was not part of the original justification. We'll just speed it along seemed to be the mantra, if they had left it alone every bit of it would have reentered weeks ago. Maybe 1-2 weeks ago. Instead, it appears that we will have an ongoing threat for months. </p><p>That's my view anyway. Can you recall where you heard they expected bits to be at 800 km for months?</p> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>

 

[billslugg]

<p>Wayne&nbsp;</p><p><BR/>Replying to:<BR/><DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>That's not what I remember bill.I believe they were stating that everything would be down within "a few orbits" which would imply 24 hours or less (16-17 orbits). <br /> Posted by meteorwayne</DIV></p><p>We are both right. You are referring to official estimates made before the shootdown. They thought it would all be down in about the same time frame as the intact satellite would have been. They started shooting at it during the lunar eclipse with, as I recall, an estimated 5 days before reentry. </p><p>I was referring to a graph I saw that was made after the shootdown. My purpose was different from yours. You have shown that it is more risky than we estimated. My purpose was only to compare what we did to what the Chinese did.</p><p>The New York Times reported on Feb 14 that the window would open in 4 to 5 days and be open for 8 days. See Here "&nbsp; Debris from the Chinese test, officials said, may orbit and pose a threat to space vehicles for decades, while the debris from the American satellite, if hit by the missile, should fall within weeks."</p><p>The Celestrak estimate (non-official) shows most of (51%) down at 22 days.&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Bill Slugg&nbsp;</p> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p> </p><p> </p> </div>

 

[MeteorWayne]

<p><BR/>Replying to:<BR/><DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>Wayne&nbsp;We are both right. You are referring to official estimates made before the shootdown. They thought it would all be down in about the same time frame as the intact satellite would have been. They started shooting at it during the lunar eclipse with, as I recall, an estimated 5 days before reentry. I was referring to a graph I saw that was made after the shootdown. My purpose was different from yours. You have shown that it is more risky than we estimated. My purpose was only to compare what we did to what the Chinese did.The New York Times reported on Feb 14 that the window would open in 4 to 5 days and be open for 8 days. See Here "&nbsp; Debris from the Chinese test, officials said, may orbit and pose a threat to space vehicles for decades, while the debris from the American satellite, if hit by the missile, should fall within weeks."The Celestrak estimate (non-official) shows most of (51%) down at 22 days.&nbsp;&nbsp;Bill Slugg&nbsp; <br />Posted by billslugg</DIV></p><p>Thanks for the clarification, bill. You correctly summed up my view, and now I understand the point you were trying to make, which I also agree with.</p><p>MW</p> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>

 

[MeteorWayne]

<p>STS-123 (and I would assume the ISS) will be passed by a piece of the debris tomorrow around 2011 UT at a distance of 2.4 km. the closing speed would be 12.5 km/s (7.8 miles/sec or 28,038 mph) That may be close enough that the ISS may need to take evasive action.</p><p>That's really a statement to how badly the threat caused by the shootdown was underestimated.</p> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>

 

[MeteorWayne]

<p><BR/>Replying to:<BR/><DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>STS-123 (and I would assume the ISS) will be passed by a piece of the debris tomorrow around 2011 UT at a distance of 2.4 km. the closing speed would be 12.5 km/s (7.8 miles/sec or 28,038 mph) That may be close enough that the ISS may need to take evasive action.That's really a statement to how badly the threat caused by the shootdown was underestimated. <br />Posted by MeteorWayne</DIV></p><p>I'm also astounded by the fact that no one in any media I have seen is talking about the threat the shootdown has caused to hundreds of other satellites.</p><p>I have contacted 2 MSM outlets to get them to look at the story.</p><p>We need to admit we screwed up, so we won't do it again....<br /></p> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>

 

[Zipi]

<p><BR/>Replying to:<BR/><DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>Wayne&nbsp;We are both right. You are referring to official estimates made before the shootdown. </DIV><br /><br />Good sum up Bill! And I have to say that I as well agree completely. There is no doubts about that how bad event the chinese ASAT test was. </p><p>And referring to meteorwayne's last post I agree as well. This story need to be told so this kind of events can maybe avoided. USA 193 shoot down was not the worst case, but still it was a case that should be notified.</p> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>

 

[job1207]

<div>The response from the NYT.....&nbsp;</div><div>&nbsp;</div><div>Well, Bill Broad wrote a very extensive piece on this after the Chinese satellite shoot-down last year, and we continue to watch it. So I realize it's an important story, but so does the paper -- and we will continue to report on it.</div> <div><br /></div> <div>John Schwartz</div><div>New&nbsp; York Times&nbsp;</div><div>&nbsp;</div><div>That was the best I could do. &nbsp;</div>

 

[MeteorWayne]

<p><BR/>Replying to:<BR/><DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>The response from the NYT.....&nbsp;&nbsp;Well, Bill Broad wrote a very extensive piece on this after the Chinese satellite shoot-down last year, and we continue to watch it. So I realize it's an important story, but so does the paper -- and we will continue to report on it. John SchwartzNew&nbsp; York Times&nbsp;&nbsp;That was the best I could do. &nbsp; <br />Posted by job1207</DIV></p><p>I haven't yet heard back from either contact I made yesterday afternoon.<br /></p> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>

 

[Zipi]

<p>Pretty close passing?</p><p><table border="1" cellpadding="5"><tbody><tr><td>26069

 

[job1207]

2.7 times in 1000 chance of hitting Cosmos 2369 if I read that correctly. That is just TWENTY THREE METERS away. I can throw that far. At least I think that I Can throw that far......

 

[job1207]

http://celestrak.com/SOCRATES/top10minrange.asp

 

[Zipi]

<p><table border="1" cellpadding="5"><tbody><tr><td rowspan="2">&nbsp;

 

[job1207]

<p>http://celestrak.com/cgi-bin/searchSOCRATES.pl</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Watching this every couple of days is like actually watching the sky fall. At any rate, the closest debris on today's list is just seven meters away from a satellite. It has a three in 100 chance if hitting, and is is closing at 10 KM per second. I can't run that fast. &nbsp;</p><table border="1" cellpadding="5"><tbody><tr height="3" bgcolor="BLACK"><td colspan="8">&nbsp;

 

[neilsox]

Have any satelite failures occured the past 2 weeks?&nbsp;&nbsp; Neil

 

[MeteorWayne]

<p><BR/>Replying to:<BR/><DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>Have any satelite failures occured the past 2 weeks?&nbsp;&nbsp; Neil <br />Posted by neilsox</DIV></p><p>There haven't been any I've heard about in many months.</p> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>

 

[job1207]

<p>Compared to the Fengyun 1C event, the USA 193 event is mild. That said, the LEO environment was put in danger. That should NEVER happen, on purpose and is a far greater risk than any other risk, short of the possible security risk associated with the loss of classified equipment. </p><p>As of this morning we are down to SIX USA 193 debris events CLOSER than 5KM. I look at it this way, if these were regular airlines, these close encounters would set off alarms, that would wind up in the newspaper, every day. This is totally ridiculous.&nbsp; </p>

 

[Zipi]

<p>Maybe slightly offtopic, but here is the link:<br />http://www.esa.int/SPECIALS/ESOC/SEMN2VM5NDF_mg_1.html</p> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>

 

[job1207]

<p>WOW.</p><p>&nbsp;http://celestrak.com/cgi-bin/searchSOCRATES.pl</p><p>A real HIT is predicted. AT SPEED. I would say that 12 KM per second is faster than I can run. I wonder what will happen. The hit is predicted for April 16. I am hoping that Cosmos 1818 is movable. Yes, the software program predicts a probability of ONE for a collision at 12 Km per sec. </p><p>&nbsp;</p><table border="1" cellpadding="5"><tbody><tr height="3" bgcolor="BLACK"><td colspan="8">&nbsp;

 

[Zipi]

<p><BR/>Replying to:<BR/><DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>WOW.&nbsp;http://celestrak.com/cgi-bin/searchSOCRATES.plA real HIT is predicted. AT SPEED. I would say that 12 KM per second is faster than I can run. I wonder what will happen. The hit is predicted for April 16. I am hoping that Cosmos 1818 is movable. Yes, the software program predicts a probability of ONE for a collision at 12 Km per sec. &nbsp;&nbsp; 17369 COSMOS 1818 5.192 1.000E+00 0.000 0.016 12.106 11166 SL-3 R/B 5.817 2008 Apr 16 14:11:27.090 2008 Apr 16 14:11:27.503 2008 Apr 16 14:11:27.916 &nbsp;&nbsp; <br />Posted by job1207</DIV><br /><br />We have a specific thread for these kind of things:</p><p>http://www.space.com/common/community/forums/?plckForumPage=ForumDiscussion&plckDiscussionId=Cat%3ac7921f8b-94ec-454a-9715-3770aac6e2caForum%3ad148ee4c-9f4c-47f9-aa95-7a42941583c6Discussion%3a6dc8aae8-0392-4e5a-bf55-ae8767662f68&plckCategoryCurrentPage=0</p> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>

 

[MeteorWayne]

<p><BR/>Replying to:<BR/><DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>WOW.&nbsp;http://celestrak.com/cgi-bin/searchSOCRATES.plA real HIT is predicted. AT SPEED. I would say that 12 KM per second is faster than I can run. I wonder what will happen. The hit is predicted for April 16. I am hoping that Cosmos 1818 is movable. Yes, the software program predicts a probability of ONE for a collision at 12 Km per sec. &nbsp;&nbsp; 17369 COSMOS 1818 5.192 1.000E+00 0.000 0.016 12.106 11166 SL-3 R/B 5.817 2008 Apr 16 14:11:27.090 2008 Apr 16 14:11:27.503 2008 Apr 16 14:11:27.916 &nbsp;&nbsp; <br />Posted by job1207</DIV></p><p>Should point out off topic for this thread, since it is not USA 193 involved. Still, that's not good....<br /></p> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>

 

[erioladastra]

Replying to:<BR/><DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>Compared to the Fengyun 1C event, the USA 193 event is mild. <br />Posted by job1207</DIV><br /><br />Based on what criteria?&nbsp; From the point of view of close calls that have to be planned and weatched carefully by NASA spacecraft with serious perturbabations to operations - the UA 193 is worse.

 

[billslugg]

<p><BR/>Replying to:<BR/><DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>Based on what criteria?&nbsp; From the point of view of close calls that have to be planned and weatched carefully by NASA spacecraft with serious perturbabations to operations - the UA 193 is worse. <br /> Posted by erioladastra</DIV></p><p>That may be true right now, but in a few months, the 193 debris will be gone. The Chinese weather satellite will be up there for 100 years.&nbsp;</p> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p> </p><p> </p> </div>

 

[MeteorWayne]

<p><BR/>Replying to:<BR/><DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>That may be true right now, but in a few months, the 193 debris will be gone. The Chinese weather satellite will be up there for 100 years.&nbsp; <br />Posted by billslugg</DIV></p><p>Again, my question is, if the non shootdown danger was 0.0000000000%</p><p>and the post shootdown percentage was greater than 0, what is the benefit?</p><p>Sure the Chinese disruption was REALLY stupid. Of course, one must ask the question, why did we do such&nbsp;a stupid thing aftererward?</p><p>Sure it wasn't as bad, by why would we be that stupid....?</p> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>