Okay I am bored so grab a beer and lets talk shop.
What is up with Boeing's Starliner? Seems like it might be time for the US taxpayers to ask for a full refund? They were paid to deliver a product. They were actually paid more to deliver that product than SX.
Why do I have a feeling that Boeing is going, to cry and sob, that they need more money, to fix THEIR problems and the amount of money they will want will start with a B.
The super sad part is, I don't think even if they got the extra money to fix "THEIR" problems they could fix them properly. It isn't like building a cargo and crew capsule is cutting edge technology anymore, we have been building them since the early 1960's, but what other cards does NASA have to play?
While Boeing has it's issues, when they want to feel good about themselves, they can at least, laugh and poke fun of Blue Origin. BO has as much money as NASA and after 25 years still can't reach orbit. Seems like the very definition of incompetence and mismanagement. They are writing the book on how NOT to run an aerospace company.
The media keeps buying this non-sense that New Glenn is close to working. As if only after it's 1st test flight, everything will work and it will be flying at a regular pace to chase down SX. The cold shower reality is, almost nothing has actually been tested besides the 2nd stage which had 1 hot fire test.
All the ground systems are brand new. The launch controls software and procedures are brand new. The flight control software is brand new. The staging software, yup you guessed it. Who thinks the 1st stage landing software and systems will nail it on their 1st attempt?
The odds are very tiny that everything will just magically work on this 1st test flight. Especially that the successfully landed 1st stage will be in any kind of condition where it can be re-flown again. If they experience a problem early in flight they won't even have any real world flight data to learn from about landing and staging NG. Even SX with all of their experience with Falcon, had a bunch of test Starship rockets built because they knew the 1st few weren't going to work.
It sure seems like Blue should of started a Hopper test flight program, a few years ago. To understand the basics of hovering and landing the 1st stage could of been established to get them ahead of that learning curve. Now they are relying on so many unknowns to work perfectly before they can even try their 1st test landing. So if you think I was a bit too harsh calling Blue incompetent, we shall see.
BO's track record is so bad. They can't even fly New Shepard once a month but they are going to somehow, going to be nipping at SX's heels in a few short years? That defies all the history of space flight, with normal rocket development. The Tortoise is so far ahead of The Hare at this point.
Hey Jeff, free advice, buy ULA! If NG doesn't work on this 1st test flight. ULA's purchase price is going to double or triple.
If you exclude SX the entire American Aerospace Industry is a huge mess right now. Hopefully in the next decade another private company or 2 will step up. They are all seriously underfunded. NASA should bet on the other new commercial companies. Demand a full refund from Boeing for Starliner and redirect that $3 billion into a few other aggressive and promising companies with the best management teams.
NASA should not be giving BO any contracts. Just tell them we don't work with part-time hobbyists. They have enough of a mess with Boeing. Why invite another problems child with BO? If BO gets their act together, I am all for allowing them to the dance but after 25 years, she has to face facts that he is never going to give you that ring and walk you down the aisle.
NASA also needs to completely ban all CostPlus contracts in the future. I believe that is the root cause of many of it's long term problems. DoD and NASA need to create milestone payments with many small target milestones to be achieved. It keeps the projects moving forward and it keep the focus on the proper tasks in front of them. So you don't end up with a $500 million mobile launch tower for a cancelled rocket Ares 1. Cost Plus rewards spending money everywhere and accepting cost over runs and delays, because they make more money.
Congress also needs to get called out by NASA for creating this problem. They always want a big pork chop for their Districts and States. China doesn't operate that way and if we fall behind China in Space now, the odds are we're never going to catch up.
SX's long term success is also not a sure thing. Musk has always taken big risks. Musk and SX have claimed out on a thin political limb and risk, some major blow back might be coming in 2029. So SX's future isn't guaranteed. Rarely will Titans of industry go all in on one side of the political divide. They usually ride the middle and play it safe no matter what way the winds shift. If 47 crashes and burns?
Monopolies tend to run into problems. Also the wolves on Wall St. will eventually eye, SX. Those profits 1st, management types would love get a hold of Starlink and trash the expensive Mars ambitions and if that means kicking Musk to the curb so be it. Baby needs a new 150 meter yacht to match her new bikini.
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