First off, welcome to all the new posters! I am glad to see people putting something out for discussion, rather than just lurking around in the background.
Certainly some fascinating ideas about launch technology! But something that must be kept in mind when designing catapult systems is max Q. When launching from the surface of Earth, you are under a speed limit, until you reach high altitude. This speed limit is not a hard and fast number, but is a function of speed and altitude, with the lower the altitude, the lower the value of max Q. This is why the space shuttle throttles the main engines back to about 60 percent right after launch. Any system which accelerates at several gravities from launch is going to run into this problem, and there are no mountains high enough to get around it.
Currently, the largest payload an aircraft can take off with is about 800,000 pounds. But these are aircraft that are designed to carry the cargo inside a fuselage, and to haul that cargo long distances at high speed. So the airframe has a lot of weight that would be of no use for airborne launching. This is why the White Knight variants look so strange, because the are the first aircraft DESIGNED to carry a payload to altitude, and nothing else. As someone constantly is pointing out, the Pegasus launch vehicle has to be launched from a big airplane, an L-1011. Now, the Pegasus weighs in about 40,000 pounds before launch. The proposed Space Ship Two will weigh about 30,000 pounds. The White Knight 2, which is to carry SS2, uses only two fairly small turbofan engines to carry that 30,000 pounds to 50,000 feet. Why does Pegasus need an L-1011? Because no one has designed an airframe specifically for carrying 40,000 pounds or more to 50,000 feet.
So, if we double the current maximum payload to 1,600,000 pounds, we could carry a vehicle which weighs about as much as the space shuttle with a half-to-three quarters full external tank to 50,000 feet. If we are only going to send a payload of 12,000 pounds to Low Earth Orbit, that should be more than enough allowance for the orbiter and all the propellant. What is so magical about 50,000 feet? That is about the highest that a turbofan engine will work efficiently. Conversely, that is about the lowest altitude that you can accelerate as fast as you want without having your vehicle destroyed by max-Q, as long as the acceleration is not completely horizontal.
People keep bringing up scramjets as a means of helping the space ship reach orbit, but scramjets have two major limitations. One, they have to be traveling at supersonic speed to start up, and two, they can only operate to about 80,000 - 100,000 feet. In this application, that doesn't really help things any. Only if the space ship is accelerated to supersonic velocities at low altitude would scramjets be of much use.
Irregardless of how much an object weighs, it will be subject to extreme heating during re-entry. The only difference between a heavy object and a light one is the amount of time that it will take to slow down. However, it is likely that a lighter weight space ship would not need as robust a Thermal Protection System as a heavier one would, because the period of time moving at hypersonic velocities would be shorter.
If I am not mistaken, it only takes about 60 people to launch a Delta Heavy or an Atlas IV, versus about 400 for the space shuttle. Man rating either would erase most of that difference, I believe, because so many systems have to be monitored with a human being capable of aborting the launch. This is one of the major drawbacks of launching vertically, because everything has to work perfectly.
The current weight of the Orion capsule to just too much for either the Delta Heavy or the Atlas IV to be able to insert into a stable orbit. If there were a space ship that could meet the capsule, and carry it to a stable orbit, then it might be worthwhile to consider man rating one or both of these expendable launch vehicles, but no such animal is in the works, as far as I know. And that still leaves the problem of water recovery when returning to Earth, unless we can land somewhere outside the U.S.