2004 MN4 to direct hit Earth in 2034?

[shuttle_rtf]

http://instapundit.com/archives/022510.php<br /><br />Just come up now:<br /><br />ASTEROID UPDATE:<br /><br /> A HUGE asteroid which is on a course to miss the Earth by a whisker in 2029 could go round its orbit again and score a direct hit a few years later.<br /> Astronomers have calculated that the 1,000ft-wide asteroid called 2004 MN4 will pass by the Earth at a distance of between 15,000 and 25,000 miles — about a tenth of the distance between the Earth and the Moon and close enough to be seen with the naked eye.<br /><br /> Although they are sure that it will miss us, they are worried about the disturbance that such a close pass will give to the asteroid’s orbit. It might put 2004 MN4 on course for a collision in 2034 or a year or two later: the unpredictability of its behaviour means that the danger might not become apparent until it is too late. <br /><br />Scientists are proposing that we tag it with a transponder, so that we can keep closer track of its position.

 

[yevaud]

Ah yes, I read that at work, about 3 hours ago.<br /><br />Perhaps this is the time to begin a crash-program in anything that would help to divert it.<br /><br />I just got a great idea, while typing the above. Why doesn't one of us write an anonymous letter to "W," Rummy, and a few of the NeoCons.<br /><br />In it, it can be represented that the imminent Asteroid threat somehow conforms *exactly* to Neo Con policies and intentions.<br /><br />Watch the money flow into the space industry... <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><em>Differential Diagnosis:  </em>"<strong><em>I am both amused and annoyed that you think I should be less stubborn than you are</em></strong>."<br /> </p> </div>

 

[najab]

So what you're saying is that we have to convince them that either: (a) 2004 MN4 contains large quantities of light-sweet crude; or (b) it's a <i>Muslim</i> asteroid that's going to hit Washington DC.

 

[yevaud]

Close:<br /><br />We have to convince them that it's a Muslim Asteroid, bent on destruction of our American way. God is testing us to see if we're pure, and we are with Dubya (soon to be heredity president of the Fated Republic of God-Fearin', heathen-spearing, good ole boys at the Helm.<br /><br />We will build the weapons of God, and smite the offending rock.<br /><br />And the sole pieces of the asteroid that don't "miss" the Earth can rain down on our enemies, and turn them into vast wastelands.<br /><br />Halibur-akhbar! <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><em>Differential Diagnosis:  </em>"<strong><em>I am both amused and annoyed that you think I should be less stubborn than you are</em></strong>."<br /> </p> </div>

 

[shuttle_rtf]

Bruce Willis says he's pretty much free that year. <img src="/images/icons/wink.gif" />

 

[CalliArcale]

On a more serious note....<br /><br />How would you go about moving an asteroid of this size? We've got about thirty years, and with the inherent chaos of these minor planets, it'll be awfully hard to predict whether or not we've got it moved the right way. One of the big problems is that we don't have an accurate estimate of its mass, which makes most orbital calculations very imprecise. Worse still, it's recently been scientifically proven that sunlight DOES have a tiny but significant affect on their orbits, but not one that is easy to predict.<br /><br />Hmmm, I wonder what it would take to build a spacecraft to fly past *many* PHAs? A sort of PHA reconnaissance vehicle. Probably it's beyond our technology to make it practical (because it'll have to visit them all in short order, so we can actually do something about them). So the imperative is to understand them better so the values we get from remote sensing are more useful. I think we need a *class* of minor planet reconnaisance vehicles, small, fast spacecraft that do close studies of a number of carefully chosen minor planets to get a better idea of how dense these things usually are, so we can estimate their masses better and thus refine our asteroid hazard predictions and be able to do the neccesary calculations to actually move one into a safer location. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p> </p><p><font color="#666699"><em>"People assume that time is a strict progression of cause to effect, but actually from a non-linear, non-subjective viewpoint it's more like a big ball of wibbly wobbly . . . timey wimey . . . stuff."</em>  -- The Tenth Doctor, "Blink"</font></p> </div>

 

[rogers_buck]

When it comes round in 2024, you have to be ready for it. You send up several CEVs and several transports loaded with nuke rovers, several dozen self motivated 40MT H-bombs. The CEVs survey the asteroid and land to do other science. Then the crews come home, leaving behind a com relay sat. Back on earth the super computer run for months analyzing the information returned from the survey and the precise tracking data obtained. Finally, they chug out a solution as to how best to deplay the nukes on the surface, the best sequence for their detonation, how many nukes to use, and the most optimal point in the objects orbit to detonate nuke. The best place to stow the unused nukes on the asteroid is also determined.<br /><br />Many, all, or none of the nukes might be usefull. They might be set off all at once, or one at a time with rigorous astronometry being performed in between to validate the models. The goal would be to get at least one shot off ASAP so that the overall effectiveness of tha approach could be gauged. It might be that the remaining nukes will be flown off the surface and detonated in space if the approach is useless. Either way, you will know ASAP.<br />

 

[larper]

What is really interesting is that it will pass by at very nearly GEOS altitude. Anyone know its inclination? <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><strong><font color="#ff0000">Vote </font><font color="#3366ff">Libertarian</font></strong></p> </div>

 

[Aetius]

That reminds me of one of my favorite Christian hymns: "Soldiers Of Christ Arise". <img src="/images/icons/smile.gif" />

 

[rogers_buck]

Its inclinations are to thit the earth. (-;<br /><br />I don't recall hearing that this object was outside the ecliptic. Seems like they would have mentioned that somewhere.

 

[igorsboss]

<font color="yellow">When it comes round in 2024, you have to be ready for it.</font><br /><br />Yes! The first mission should be recon and testing, to prepare for a second deflection mission.

 

[najab]

><i>I see no solid, scientific publications that 2004 MN is going to strike anywhere near the earth.</i><p>But steve, that's the problem - we know it's going to pass within 20,000 or so miles in 2029, but there's currently <b>no way</b> to know what it's going to do after that. All we know is that its orbit is going to be perturbed by the 2029 pass, but what will the result will be? That's the point of the article. I find the proposal to 'tag' the asteroid quite reasonable.</p>

 

[elguapoguano]

Sure, no problem. All we have to do is use one of the "special Military shuttle's" have it dock with MIR to refuel, fly around the back of the moon, land. Drill a 800 foot deep hole and drop a Nuke in it. Easy... <img src="/images/icons/wink.gif" /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <font color="#ff0000"><u><em>Don't let your sig line incite a gay thread ;>)</em></u></font> </div>

 

[mkofron]

http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/2004mn4.html

 

[phaze]

Well... according to that link there is a 1 in 6,670 chance that it will hit the Earth. <br /><br />Someone ought to keep an eye or two on it.

 

[appy]

New to site from another christian site. SOMEWHERE I copied off an orbit trajectory for an asteroid actually named wormwood. It was a spiral shaped orbit and now I can not find it for the life of me. HELP! ANYONE SEEN IT? cows333@BellSouth.net Leia<br /><br />PS no one believes me, but I know I saw it somewhere...

 

[CalliArcale]

The definitive resource for that sort of information is the Minor Planet Center. (A minor planet is any natural body orbiting the Sun other than the 9* major planets.)<br /><br />*There is some dispute over whether Pluto should be considered a major planet. Additionally, there have been Pluto-sized and larger objects discovered recently which complicate the discussion.<br /><br />There are tens of thousands of known minor planets. Those with well-known and confirmed orbits receive sequential numeric designations ("numbered asteroids") unless they are comets in which case they've got a separate numbering/naming scheme. The International Astronomical Union eventually assigns names to the numbered asteroids. (Unnumbered asteroids, which have designators showing when they were discovered, may get code names but cannot get official names until they become numbered. This is to guard against erroneous inclusions, since unnumbered asteroids may not be confirmed to actually exist.) Here is a list of all of the numbered minor planets that have names. There isn't one named "wormwood", but there is the possibility that someone has used that as a code-name for an unnumbered minor planet that they were studying. It's much easier to observe an object and talk about it if it's got a name, even if you had to make the name up yourself. On a hunch, I checked for one named "artemesia" (the botanic name for the wormwood plant), but that is also absent.<br /><br />So, I'm very sorry, but as far as I can tell, the Wormwood minor planet is either fictious or the name has been applied to a different object. I'm not aware of one with a spiral orbit; that sounds like either a hideously unstable orbit (and thus not a predictable one, so the orbit plot would not be of any use) or like a non-standard orbit diagram. There are some objects with pec <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p> </p><p><font color="#666699"><em>"People assume that time is a strict progression of cause to effect, but actually from a non-linear, non-subjective viewpoint it's more like a big ball of wibbly wobbly . . . timey wimey . . . stuff."</em>  -- The Tenth Doctor, "Blink"</font></p> </div>

 

[silylene old]

A new asteroid, 2005 TS15, discovered 8 days ago is now rated at Torino scale 1. Over the last five days each subsequent new observation has increased its collision chance.<br /><br />The best website for monitoring asteroid dangers is the 'Asteroid Comet Connection' at:<br />http://www.hohmanntransfer.com/news.htm<br /><br />Also see:<br />Near Earh Object program: http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/<br />JPL NEODYS: <br />http://newton.dm.unipi.it/cgi-bin/neodys/neoibo?riskpage:0;main<br /><br />Finally the latest summarized information on the newest asteroid risk can be found at http://www.hohmanntransfer.com/news.htm and then click on 2005 TS15 hyperlink. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature" align="center"><em><font color="#0000ff">- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -</font></em> </div><div class="Discussion_UserSignature" align="center"><font color="#0000ff"><em>I really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function.</em></font> </div> </div>

 

[bonzelite]

isn't it true that if any asteroid were to be blown up or otherwise destroyed, that actually will create the catastrophe, as thousands of chunks of rock will rain down on the earth, killing everyone. <br /><br />they'd need to attach some type of ion propulsion engines to the asteroids, gradually correcting them away from the earth's vicinity, for a long time. and that would take lots of money. and who would justify that unless we were already hit? that is, we would need to already be hit by an asteroid before any mechanisms or agencies were placed or created to avert one. <br /><br />or there would need to be a more guaranteed impact. like say a 1 in 10 chance. or maybe even 1 in 100, before anything would be done to prevent an impact. a 1 in 6000 or more, or whatever, is too unlikely to justify a rendesvous/ avert mission. it's a matter of money, which is automatically a political matter. <br /><br />

 

[CalliArcale]

<blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr /><p>isn't it true that if any asteroid were to be blown up or otherwise destroyed, that actually will create the catastrophe, as thousands of chunks of rock will rain down on the earth, killing everyone.<p><hr /></p></p></blockquote><br /><br />In general, yes. Fragmenting the object does nothing to change the fact that its pieces are still steaming straight towards us (so to speak). Hollywood and video games tend to make us forget about conservation of mass, but if you blow something up, it still has exactly the same mass it had before -- it's just distributed over a much larger area, which means that when it hits the Earth, the damage will also be more widely distributed, potentially making the disaster all the worse.<br /><br />You're right -- the only really conceivable way of making an asteroid miss the Earth (with current tech) is by affixing some kind of high-isp engine to it and diverting its trajectory. Nukes could be used (a la Project Orion) but in this case they wouldn't be helping to fragment it but to produce thrust. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p> </p><p><font color="#666699"><em>"People assume that time is a strict progression of cause to effect, but actually from a non-linear, non-subjective viewpoint it's more like a big ball of wibbly wobbly . . . timey wimey . . . stuff."</em>  -- The Tenth Doctor, "Blink"</font></p> </div>

 

[vogon13]

Go! Go! Orion!<br /><br />Saving the world for all mankind!<br /><br /><br /><img src="/images/icons/wink.gif" /><br /><br /><br />{who didn't see that coming?}<br /><br /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#ff0000"><strong>TPTB went to Dallas and all I got was Plucked !!</strong></font></p><p><font color="#339966"><strong>So many people, so few recipes !!</strong></font></p><p><font color="#0000ff"><strong>Let's clean up this stinkhole !!</strong></font> </p> </div>