2004 XP14

[kitman99]

I read the article and understand that there is no danger to the earth but I was wondering how close will this asteroid come to Venus, the graphic shows it coming what appears to be closer to Venus than to Earth.<br /><br />What are the chances for a Venus impact?

 

[Boris_Badenov]

Not to close, check this out;<br /><br />http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/db?name=2004+XP14 <br /><br />Welcome to SDC. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <font color="#993300"><span class="body"><font size="2" color="#3366ff"><div align="center">. </div><div align="center">Never roll in the mud with a pig. You'll both get dirty & the pig likes it.</div></font></span></font> </div>

 

[kitman99]

Wow, very nice model, thank you. <br /><br />O.K. another question. <br /><br />What about July 4th, 2013 with Mars and what would the effect be if there were a collision with Mars?

 

[cp28]

Zoom in or tilt the view and look at it from a different angle instead of a one dimensional view and you will see it comes nowhere near Mars on that date.<br />

 

[sanitarium]

EDIT - Thanks for explaining AU. Now my question is supposedly this asteroid is going to be only 268,624 miles from earth at its closest aproach. <br /><br />What are the chances Earth's gravity interacts with it somehow?<br /><br /><br />Also I looked up some other asteroids and 99942 Apophis on April 14th 2029 will only be 18,600miles away!! That's extremely close!

 

[enigma10]

http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/glossary/au.html <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <em>"<font color="#333399">An organism at war with itself is a doomed organism." - Carl Sagan</font></em> </div>

 

[vogon13]

According to the law of universal gravitiation, all mass possessing contents of the universe interact with each other.<br /><br /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#ff0000"><strong>TPTB went to Dallas and all I got was Plucked !!</strong></font></p><p><font color="#339966"><strong>So many people, so few recipes !!</strong></font></p><p><font color="#0000ff"><strong>Let's clean up this stinkhole !!</strong></font> </p> </div>

 

[CalliArcale]

In other words, the Earth's gravity definitely does affect this asteroid, but this is a known effect. In the above model, the Earth's gravity is accounted for in the calculations. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p> </p><p><font color="#666699"><em>"People assume that time is a strict progression of cause to effect, but actually from a non-linear, non-subjective viewpoint it's more like a big ball of wibbly wobbly . . . timey wimey . . . stuff."</em>  -- The Tenth Doctor, "Blink"</font></p> </div>

 

[sanitarium]

You guys are obviously way smarter than me on the subject. Thanks for the info. What do you all think about April 14th 2029, when Apophis is only 18,600 out?<br /><br />

 

[Boris_Badenov]

I'm looking for a way to catch it, & move it to Lunar L4 or L5 orbit. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <font color="#993300"><span class="body"><font size="2" color="#3366ff"><div align="center">. </div><div align="center">Never roll in the mud with a pig. You'll both get dirty & the pig likes it.</div></font></span></font> </div>

 

[tony873004]

Lunar L4 & L5 would be a dangerous place to keep it. If we didn't constantly maintain its orbit, it would ultimately escape the L point and either: <br /><br />A. get ejected from the Earth / Moon system into an Earth-crossing solar orbit<br /><br />B. crash into the Moon<br /><br />C. crash into the Earth.

 

[CalliArcale]

Actually, L4 and L5 are stable. Asteroids which naturally occupy the L4 and L5 points of bodies such as Mars, Jupiter, and Neptune are called "Trojan companions" and can stay there indefinitely. You're thinking of L1, L2, and L3.<br /><br />There's a wonderful explanation of this, with illustrations, at the WMAP site.<br /><br /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p> </p><p><font color="#666699"><em>"People assume that time is a strict progression of cause to effect, but actually from a non-linear, non-subjective viewpoint it's more like a big ball of wibbly wobbly . . . timey wimey . . . stuff."</em>  -- The Tenth Doctor, "Blink"</font></p> </div>

 

[CalliArcale]

<blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr /><p>What do you all think about April 14th 2029, when Apophis is only 18,600 out?<p><hr /></p></p></blockquote><br /><br />I did some checking. 99942 Apophis is officially rated as a Potentially Hazardous Asteroid (PHA). Last year, radar observations using the Arecibo observatory refined our understanding of its orbit. It has three close approaches expected, with the third and closest being in 2029. The flyby is rated 1 on the Torino scale, which is defined as "A routine discovery in which a pass near the Earth is predicted that poses no unusual level of danger. Current calculations show the chance of a collision is extremely unlikely with no cause for public attention or public concern. New telescopic obserations very likely will lead to re-assignment to level 0." <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p> </p><p><font color="#666699"><em>"People assume that time is a strict progression of cause to effect, but actually from a non-linear, non-subjective viewpoint it's more like a big ball of wibbly wobbly . . . timey wimey . . . stuff."</em>  -- The Tenth Doctor, "Blink"</font></p> </div>

 

[MeteorWayne]

The last I saw, (I will try and find the actual reference) is that during the error ellipse of the 2029 approach, which is still huge, there is a small window (less tha 1 sq km) that if it passed there it could impact earth in a subsequent orbit. That's the best I can do from memory.<br />When I find the details, I'll post it.<br /><br />MeteorWayne <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>

 

[MeteorWayne]

Since the approach is less than 1/10th the distance to the moon, and the moon is in orbit around the earth (under it's gravitational influence), you can be sure it will have it's orbit changed by the earth's gravity. The question is, how much, and more specifically, where will it be on it's next few orbits as it passes (or hits) the earth.<br />No need to worry yet. We'll see how the path is changed in 2029. If we need to, we can start worrying then.<br /><br />MeteorWayne <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>

 

[Boris_Badenov]

Its mass is 4.6×10tothe10 kg. If you can figure how many tons that is, I can get a friend at another board to do the calculations on how much thrust it would take to move it to Lunar L5. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <font color="#993300"><span class="body"><font size="2" color="#3366ff"><div align="center">. </div><div align="center">Never roll in the mud with a pig. You'll both get dirty & the pig likes it.</div></font></span></font> </div>

 

[CalliArcale]

<blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr /><p>The last I saw, (I will try and find the actual reference) is that during the error ellipse of the 2029 approach, which is still huge, there is a small window (less tha 1 sq km) that if it passed there it could impact earth in a subsequent orbit. That's the best I can do from memory. <p><hr /></p></p></blockquote><br /><br />I believe you are correct that this is what was predicted previously -- a very small chance of an impact. The NeoDys service said that it's orbit had been refined much better very recently by radar observations, so they may have ruled that out. Frustratingly, I couldn't find a really clear explanation of *what* changed in the predictions. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p> </p><p><font color="#666699"><em>"People assume that time is a strict progression of cause to effect, but actually from a non-linear, non-subjective viewpoint it's more like a big ball of wibbly wobbly . . . timey wimey . . . stuff."</em>  -- The Tenth Doctor, "Blink"</font></p> </div>

 

[tony873004]

<i>Actually, L4 and L5 are stable. Asteroids which naturally occupy the L4 and L5 points of bodies such as Mars, Jupiter, and Neptune are called "Trojan companions" and can stay there indefinitely. You're thinking of L1, L2, and L3. <br /></i><br />L4 & L5 are not stable in the Earth / Moon system. An object perfectly placed on one of these points will begin to wander immediately. It can still orbit the L4 or 5 point for up to several years with no corrections necessary, but eventually, it will escape.<br /><br />The reason the Earth / Moon L4 and L5 are not stable, and the Planet / Sun L4 & L5 points are stable is because of the solar gravitational tide. It is strong through the Earth / Moon system and is a heavy perturber of any objects in the L4 & L5 points.<br /><br />A planet/Sun L4 or L5 point doesn't have any heavy perturbers. Objects can exist there indefinately.

 

[vogon13]

I suspect long ago the Earth / Moon L4/5 poositions were stable. Currently, the Earth's gravitational pull on the Moon is only 42% that of the sun's.<br /><br /><br /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#ff0000"><strong>TPTB went to Dallas and all I got was Plucked !!</strong></font></p><p><font color="#339966"><strong>So many people, so few recipes !!</strong></font></p><p><font color="#0000ff"><strong>Let's clean up this stinkhole !!</strong></font> </p> </div>

 

[CalliArcale]

Okay, my brain isn't working. For some reason I thought we were talking about Sun-Earth L4/L5. Sorry about that.<br /><br />Another problem with Earth/Moon L4 and L5 is that the relative masses of Earth and Moon are unusually close. L4 and L5 are only stable if there is a larger difference in the masses of the two large bodies.<br /><br />There are stable L4 and L5 points other than Sun-Planet ones. Most notably, there are several Saturnian satellites with stable Trojan companions. But obviously the mass ratio is quite different there. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p> </p><p><font color="#666699"><em>"People assume that time is a strict progression of cause to effect, but actually from a non-linear, non-subjective viewpoint it's more like a big ball of wibbly wobbly . . . timey wimey . . . stuff."</em>  -- The Tenth Doctor, "Blink"</font></p> </div>

 

[tony873004]

The mass ratios only need to exceed ~25:1. Earth / Moon qualifies there. Its the close proximity of the system to the Sun that destabalizes L4-5. The Moon is about 1/4 of the distance to the edge of Earth's Hill Sphere.<br /><br />Saturn's Hill Sphere is much larger due to its vast distance from the Sun. And the resonant moons of Saturn are very close Saturn. So the Sun's gravitational tidal force is insignificant.

 

[Boris_Badenov]

How about Lunar L1? <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <font color="#993300"><span class="body"><font size="2" color="#3366ff"><div align="center">. </div><div align="center">Never roll in the mud with a pig. You'll both get dirty & the pig likes it.</div></font></span></font> </div>

 

[tony873004]

All L1 points are unstable. The Moon's is probably more unstable than the Earth / Sun's.<br /><br />L1, L2, & L3 points are stable in the up/down direction, and are stable along the object's orbital path, but they are unstable in the direction towards and away from the planet (or moon). So a spacecraft stationed in L1 or L2 or L3 would need to make corrective burns along this axis from time to time or they will drift away from the L point.

 

[alokmohan]

Is aphopis potentially dangerous asteroid?Is 2029 threat real?Confused by two views.

 

[CalliArcale]

Yes, it is a potentially hazardous asteroid, but there is not believed to be any significant risk with the 2029 flyby. Future flybys are less certain, though, which is why it stays on the list of dangerous asteroids. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p> </p><p><font color="#666699"><em>"People assume that time is a strict progression of cause to effect, but actually from a non-linear, non-subjective viewpoint it's more like a big ball of wibbly wobbly . . . timey wimey . . . stuff."</em>  -- The Tenth Doctor, "Blink"</font></p> </div>