2009 YE7: New "large" dwarf planet candidate discovered

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MeteorWayne

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Kind of related; Alan Stern andf Mike Brown on large planets "out there"

Earth-Sized World Could Lurk in Outer Solar System

http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/1 ... anets.html

Some astronomers say that a planet the size of Mars or Earth could be lurking on the fringes of our solar system. But even the latest space telescopes that launched in 2009 stand little chance of finding such a distant object.

Such a world, if it exists, would probably have an orbit far beyond Pluto or similar dwarf planets in the outer solar system. It would likely resemble a frozen version of Mars or Earth at best, a most unsuitable home for life. And it would not be alone.

"When the solar system's story is finally written, it's much more likely that it will have closer to 900 planets rather than the nine that we grew up with," said Alan Stern, a planetary scientist at the Southwest Research Institute (SwRI) in Boulder, Colo.

Just a handful of those potential discoveries might reach the size of Earth, compared to a swarm of Pluto-sized bodies that Stern and others expect to find.

Each object – be it termed a planet, dwarf planet or otherwise – would serve as a frozen time capsule that could reveal much about the early evolution of the solar system. It could even force scientists to once again rethink the definition of a planet, following the controversial downgrading of Pluto to a dwarf planet.

Beyond the belt

Pluto's downfall came in part because astronomers discovered a number of smaller planetary objects in the outer solar system. Dwarf planets such as Eris occupy a cluttered, icy region beyond Neptune known as the Kuiper Belt. But a planet the size of Mars or Earth has not turned up at such range.

"For the Kuiper Belt we can already say there is nothing Earth or Mars sized, as its dynamical effects would be easily seen," said Mike Brown, an astronomer at Caltech who led teams that discovered Eris (and nicknamed it "Xena" at first) and other dwarf planets.

One of Brown's past dwarf planet discoveries, Sedna, occupies a strange elliptical orbit between the Kuiper Belt and the more distant Oort Cloud — a possible sign of the gravitational influence of another world as big as Earth, one astronomer proposed. But Brown suspects that such a large object would have been spotted already.

Brown and Stern say that the Oort Cloud represents a more likely prospect for worlds the size of Mars or Earth. The Oort Cloud surrounds our solar system with billions of icy bodies at distances as far out as 50,000 times the distance between the sun and Earth.

"Once you go beyond the Kuiper Belt, to the Sedna region or the Oort Cloud, you can always hide things by putting them farther away," Brown told SPACE.com.
 
M

MeteorWayne

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Now that the moon has passed, new observations reported. 11 observations over a 24 day window.

Here is the newly refined orbit:

Element Value Units
e 0.3309290
a 39.6883352 AU
q 26.5543141 AU
i 29.71494 deg
node 132.77329 deg
peri 87.02170 deg
M 207.60855 deg
tp 2493839.4978538
(2115-Oct-19.99785381) JED
period 91325.5909527 d
250.04 y
n 0.00394194 deg/d
Q 52.8223563 AU
 
M

MeteorWayne

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As expected, some pretty big changes in orbit. Note period went from 287 to 250 years, perihelion from 36 to 27 AU, date of perihelion (tp) from 2152 to 2115, eccentricity from 0.17 to 0.33. One thing that didn't change much is the inclination of the orbit, so Mike Brown's off the cuff prediction is still in the running :) ....except the MPC is now calling it a Plutino (object in 2:3 resonance with Neptune) rather than a Cubewano (general Kuiper Belt object) that it did before. Hence my advice a few posts back to wait for some more observations ;) And one thing Mike misstated in his blog post above was, "Following the position of an object for only 2 weeks doesn’t give you a precise measurement of much about its orbit", when in actuality it had only a 5 day arc. In his haste, and possibly from just watching the Princess and the Frog, he probably missed that :)

Expect more changes as new observations come in.

Here's a few selected parameters before (8 obs, 5 days, original discovery release) and after (11 obs over 24 day arc, through Jan 6th) the new data.


e 0.1748288......0.3309290
a 43.5310856..... 39.6883352 AU
q 35.9205981..... 26.5543141 AU
i 29.22239..... 29.71494 deg
node 138.81889..... 132.77329 deg
peri 96.11184.....87.02170 deg
tp (2152-Dec-23.80279511)..... (2115-Oct-19.99785381) JED
period 287.22.....250.04 y
Q 51.1415731 AU.....52.8223563 AU
 
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bjorkstrand

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Today, the daily planet update says 2009 YE7 has an H=4.1 and it looks like a plutino. AU=39

Jim
 
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MeteorWayne

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Yes, I mentioned the Plutino reclassification in the post above, but I didn't catch the huge change in H.

And I hate to say I told you so (Well, not really) but if you go back and look at the fourth post (my first) in this thread.... :)
 
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h2ouniverse

Guest
Hi Wayne,

I could see the collapse in H earlier in the day and could not understand how that could be possible with such an amplitude. (for the orbital parameters huge variations were expected, granted, but for H...).
:(
Mike Brown has answered for the H, expecting an issue with the calibration of the photometry.

I can understand that they announce quickly by fear of a competitive announcement (a la Haumea). But imnsho when they do so they should be conservative for H, so as to come later with good surprises rather than bad ones.

So, so long for 2009 YE7 that will shift in the rankings.

I hope they will find bigger fishes in the southern waters!
 
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alan714586

Guest
The new orbital elements are almost certain to be wrong. Following this orbit ahead puts it within a few AU of Neptune in 2085, most plutinos remain at 15 AU from Neptune.

I remember when the Kuiper belt was still fairly new the MPC in the initial orbit estimates would often mention: assumed circular orbit or perihelic orbit (object at perihelion, M=0). With a short period of observation many orbits will fit the observations so some assumptions must be made to calculate an initial orbit so the object can be relocated dring the next month.

Looking at the eccentricities and mean anomalies (M) of the orbits based on less than a years observation (one opposition) that appears to still be the case for at least 80% of the one opposition orbits, with another 10 percent assumed to be at aphelion as 2009 YE7 initial orbit was (M=180).

In those cases the object would appear to be maintaining a constant distance. If a change in distance is detectable over a short period of observation this would indicate that the object likely has a large eccentricity and was some distance from perihelion or aphelion.

Assuming the object is a plutino (as the latest orbit for 2009 YE7 does) would be a reasonable initial guess (~20% of kuiper belt objects are plutinos) and probably gives a fairly accurate estimate of its future position during the next few months even if the object turns out not to be a plutino.
 
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bjorkstrand

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Now after 14 observations 2009 YE7 has an H=4.3 over a 57 day arc.
It would be nice to see if the astronomers can see it old photos.

Jim
 
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MeteorWayne

Guest
# obs. used (total) 14
data-arc span 57 days
first obs. used 2009-12-13
last obs. used 2010-02-08

MPC Scattered disk


Element Value Units
e 0.4304009
a 54.2818763 AU
q 30.9189079 AU
i 29.10110 deg
node 141.28965 deg
peri 21.71485 deg
M 303.26117 deg
tp 2478223.3244727
(2073-Jan-15.82447270) JED
period 146076.6253053 d , 399.94 y
n 0.00246446 deg/d
Q 77.6448447 AU

absolute magnitude H 4.3 mag
 
B

bjorkstrand

Guest
Now after 16 observations 2009 YE7 has an H=4.4 over a 98 day arc.

Jim
 
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