2010 UJ7 tiny asteroid, possibly risky

[silylene]

A new possibly risky tiny asteroid to watch has appeared on the charts: 2010 UJ7
Only 16 observations with 1.1 days of arc so far, so probably more data will refine the trajectory and eliminate the concern. So far the impact probablility is rather high. But as I said, I expect more data will eliminate this risk.

Still, an interesting little visitor which needs careful watching!

JPL Sentry:
Highest chance of impact, 1/2130, is on 2015-11-02.44 (16 potential impacts to 2104)
Palermo Scale -2.66
Torino Scale 0
Diameter 27m
Impact energy 0.61 MT

 

[Gravity_Ray]

Napoleon proved that its the little guys you need to watch out for.

 

[MeteorWayne]

Also a close approach:

(2010 UJ7)
Date 2010-Nov-02
Distance 0.0019 AU, 0.7 LD
Estimated Diameter: 21 m - 47 m
H=25.5
Relative Velocity 9.24 km/s

sbdb page: http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?sstr=2 ... ;cad=1#cad

Prelim orbit:

Element Value Uncertainty (1-sigma) Units
e .3245274281296848 +/-0.0024843
a .7872943187949839 +/-0.0010333 AU
q .5317957183353356 +/-0.0026535 AU
i 12.86230561868694 +/-0.1588 deg
node 219.5518392694503 +/-0.019362 deg
peri 333.4348031283586 +/-0.011964 deg
M 222.898433913893 +/-0.22537 deg
tp 2455596.672643630465 (2011-Feb-04.17264364) +/-0.34932 JED
period 255.1550117596524 +/-0.50231 d
0.70 +/-0.001375 yr
n 1.410907030660672 +/-0.0027776 deg/d
Q 1.042792919254632 +/-0.0013686 AU


Earth MOID = 6.9401E-5 AU

 

[bdewoody]

So, what is the current plan if an impactor is discovered and the impact is say within the next 18 months?

 

[MeteorWayne]

Bend over and kiss your mule goodbye

 

[SteveCNC]

hope it hits China ?

 

[silylene]

I would hope it kills nobody.

With its small size, it would be less than Tunguska (2010 UJ7 <1 MT). An explosion over the ocean would cause no damage, and is the most likely impact scenario since 70% of the surface is ocean (if any impact at all).

The Tunguska event was likely 3-5 MT's, based on the latest simulations. Here is a great article describing the likely damage of a tiny asteroid impact, and the Tunguska event and it simulations: http://www.planetary.org/programs/projects/targetearth/tunguska.html

 

[MeteorWayne]

From that link:
"While the method seems promising in principle, the goal of determining the size of the Tunguska explosion has remained elusive, and estimates of its power have varied widely. At the high end of the scale, researchers in 1982 suggested that the power of the explosion was equivalent to 700 million tons of TNT, or 700 megatons for short. That would be nearly twenty times the power of "Tsar Bomba," the most powerful nuclear bomb of the Cold War, which was estimated at 30 to 40 megatons. At the opposite end some researchers have suggested an explosive energy of the Tunguska airburst was only 3 to 5 megatons, about one tenth of the power of Tsar Bomba, but still about 300 times more powerful than the bomb dropped on Hiroshima in 1945. Most scientists today accept a middle ground estimate of the Tunguska impact of between 10 and 15 megatons."

That's the latest I've seen as well.

It is suspected a stony asteroid 50-60 meters in dia, not far above the range for this one...the big difference is the relative velocity, which is quite low for this object,

KE=1/2*mv[super]2[/super]
MW

 

[bdewoody]

So, for all the talk between 1994 and now we have made zero progress on the problem. A.C. Clarke was right, it will take a moderately devastating impact to get us off our collective duffs and really do something about preventing such an occurance. It seems to me that an ocean impact could be worse than a land strike if the resulting tsunami wiped out an entire coastline.

 

[Skyskimmer]

Just so were clear the tungsta event would be davastating, were lucky it hit in the most remote parts of siberia. It was a city killer were lucky it hit a part of the world with almost no people. These could wipe out millions of lives if it hit in the wrong spot.

 

[MeteorWayne]

Tunguska...

 

[MeteorWayne]

So, for all the talk between 1994 and now we have made zero progress on the problem. A.C. Clarke was right, it will take a moderately devastating impact to get us off our collective duffs and really do something about preventing such an occurance. It seems to me that an ocean impact could be worse than a land strike if the resulting tsunami wiped out an entire coastline.

Well, that's not entirely true...we've made a LOT of progress in finding PHAs (Potentially Hazerdous Asteroids). But do we have a plan if one is going to hit us in less than 5 years? No, not at all. If one is going to hit us in 20 years? No not a plan, but several realistic ideas, none of which are funded.

And as for an incoming comet from the Oort cloud, see previous advice

MW

 

[bushwhacker]

While I'd hate to see it. It's probably going to take the destruction of a City to get the worlds Government's off their collective ass's before anything gets done about this threat..

 

[silylene]

It seems NeoDyS and JPL Sentry have added 10 more observational data points and recalculated the arc, and have reduced the impact odds (now PS -2.99 and -3.05, respectively). However, the impact energy increased to 0.89 MT.

 

[Couerl]

While I'd hate to see it. It's probably going to take the destruction of a City to get the worlds Government's off their collective ass's before anything gets done about this threat..

Hi, not to pick on you and your assertion or anything but, what exactly are the worlds government's supposed to do? Other than maybe move their own HQ's if one is headed their way (Gee, that's really a shame for all those civilians we're about to leave behind, okay you're packed? let's get the hell out of here..). :geek:

As we have seen with nature's dealing of the cards time and time again, government's become essentially useless at some point, I.E. katrina, Indonesia tsunami etc,. etc.... From what I understand and still to this day, the chances of one slaming in to earth and wiping out large swaths of people (let's say northern California just for kicks) and being discovered before the fact are extremely remote. In fact, the first warning you'll get is a bright light and then you won't even have time to kiss your ass goodbye, it will already be gone.

 

[MeteorWayne]

Removed from Sentry Risk Page:

2010 UJ7 2010-11-02 10:08 UTC

Now 51 obs over 3 days.

Close approach has already occurred. (0236 UTC)

 

[MeteorWayne]

Not formatted yet, just wanted to save it for 51 obs over 3 days...

Element Value Uncertainty (1-sigma) Units
e .3278713263120839 5.4282e-05
a .7859262360348387 2.2888e-05 AU
q .5282435586426323 5.8045e-05 AU
i 13.07551159375458 0.0033339 deg
node 219.5563174815038 5.172e-05 deg
peri 333.4202774164188 0.00013437 deg
M 83.13406569372096 0.0019743 deg
tp 2455341.731091254082
(2010-May-25.23109126) 0.0039575 JED
period 254.4902257815158
0.70 0.011117
3.044e-05 d
yr
n 1.414592638654288 6.1795e-05 deg/d
Q 1.043608913427045 3.0393e-05 AU


Earth MOID = .000850286 AU

 

[bdewoody]

While I'd hate to see it. It's probably going to take the destruction of a City to get the worlds Government's off their collective ass's before anything gets done about this threat..

Hi, not to pick on you and your assertion or anything but, what exactly are the worlds government's supposed to do? Other than maybe move their own HQ's if one is headed their way (Gee, that's really a shame for all those civilians we're about to leave behind, okay you're packed? let's get the hell out of here..). :geek:

As we have seen with nature's dealing of the cards time and time again, government's become essentially useless at some point, I.E. katrina, Indonesia tsunami etc,. etc.... From what I understand and still to this day, the chances of one slaming in to earth and wiping out large swaths of people (let's say northern California just for kicks) and being discovered before the fact are extremely remote. In fact, the first warning you'll get is a bright light and then you won't even have time to kiss your ass goodbye, it will already be gone.

Well we've been lead to believe in recent times that an asteroid/comet strike is one disaster from mother nature that we can avert if only we get together and develope a workable plan and then more importantly put it in place. Otherwise when the day comes the scientists and engineers will be forced to put together a makeshift plan that may or may not work.