70%+ of moon missions' FAIL due to separate CEV/LSAM launch?

[gaetanomarano]

<br />you know the story of (manned and unmanned) rocket launch... it's a story FULL of launch DELAYS!<br /><br />the LSAM+booster system is designed with an ONE-MONTH life in orbit<br /><br />within a month, the CEV/SM must be launched and docked to LSAM to start the moon missions<br /><br />with Apollo all the hardware was sent with a single launch... with a single launch, a possible delay don't mean the mission fail<br /><br />the CEV/CLV system is new and not tested in long time use, so, a delay due to true problems or sensors malfuncion, may happen many times<br /><br />and, since crew launch MUST be as much safe as possible... problems, delays, sensor malfunctions, right flight's windows to wait, bad wheater and stormies, etc. may delay MANY crew flights of MORE than one month... like was HUNDREDS TIMES with Shuttles, satellites and probes launches<br /><br />the question (based on past hundreds rockets' flights experience) is... "how many moon missions may fail (and very expensive LSAM/SDHLV will be lost) due to CEV/CLV (separate) launch 30+ days (possible) delays?"<br /><br />10%? 30%? 50%? 70% 90%?<br /><br />and... "how to avoid this (very important) problem?"<br />

 

[dobbins]

I see you are still pulling nonsense out of your butt for thread titles.<br />

 

[mikejz]

First off, it is clear that the title is deceptive. However, I would agree that the point you are trying to, but fail, to articulate is a valid point: That the limited storage life of the LSAM might result in the lose of billions of dollars of hardware if the accompanyed CEV launch is delayed. <br /><br />However, AFAIK the the Shuttle as never been delayed due to a SRB issue. The CEV will be far more 'no nosense' as opposed to the checkout of the shuttle. What worries me is the 2nd stage of the single stick, as any issues would require a roll-back and destacking. Also with the use of the SSMEs (AFAIK) they have never been 'simple' in terms of checkout.<br /><br />The risk however could be partly availed by parallel processing two single stick missions (one for the ISS, other for the moon) whereby if the lunar launch is delayed, the opportunity to swap hardware quickly exists. <br />

 

[gaetanomarano]

<br />probably the "70%" figure is too much... but may happen<br /><br />crew launch MUST be 100% safe, so, HUNDREDS little and big problems may delay or abort a launch<br /><br />just imagine that "only" FOUR (of 2020-2025 "12" planned) moon missions will fail due to CEV/CLV delay/abort... four missions fail mean OVER $20 billion LOST<br /><br />two CEV launch per missions... do you think that NASA may have sufficient funds (and logistic) to prepare two parallel ($1 billion each) CEV/CLV launches with ALL (already very expensive) moon missions?<br />