asteroid 2006 BQ6 will pay us a close visit this summer

[silylene old]

I enjoy following the near-earth asteroids.....<br /><br />Anyways, one to watch!<br /><br />Asteroid 2006 BQ6 has a very tiny chance to hit Earth on Aug 1. Judging from the Palermo Scale of -2.8, the odds are about 1 in 20,000. <b>The asteroid's trajectory is only known from 1.5 days of arc, and subsequent observations are likely to give better estimates and (what usually occurs) eliminate any possibility of a collison.</b><br /><br />Just something interesting to watch at this stage...<br /><br /><blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr /><p><b>2006 BQ6 </b><br /><br />Notes: 2006 BQ6 was discovered by the Mt. Lemmon Survey on the morning of 22 Jan. 2006 and was announced two days later, when it was posted by NEODyS as an impact risk. <br /><br />NOTE: This object, estimated to be on the order of 425 meters in diameter, has a highly-preliminary impact solution for Aug. 1st this year. This solution is rated at the normal Torino Scale 0 ("likelihood of collision is zero, or so low as to be effectively zero") and has a relatively low Palermo Scale (PS) rating for a solution so soon for an object of this size, but still the non-zero possibility needs to be completely ruled out. Fortunately, 2006 BQ6 will remain in view and early risk assessments always change with further observation. <br /><br />Packed designation: K06B06Q <br /> NEODyS Clomon Assessment <br />--------------------------------------------------------------------------------<br /><br />Years VI PS Cum PS Max T S Arc Days <br />2006-2072 7 -2.76 -2.78 0 1.545 <p><hr /></p></p></blockquote><br />http://www.hohmanntransfer.com/news.htm <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature" align="center"><em><font color="#0000ff">- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -</font></em> </div><div class="Discussion_UserSignature" align="center"><font color="#0000ff"><em>I really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function.</em></font> </div> </div>

 

[silylene old]

And since everyone will mention it, truth is we need to pay more attention to 2004 VD17 which has a 1/3250 chance of colliding with earth (Palermo Sclae -0.64): http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/2004vd17.html<br /><br />or 99942 Apophis (2004 MN4) which has a 1/6250 chance of colliding with Earth in 2036: http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/a99942.html<br /><br /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature" align="center"><em><font color="#0000ff">- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -</font></em> </div><div class="Discussion_UserSignature" align="center"><font color="#0000ff"><em>I really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function.</em></font> </div> </div>

 

[yevaud]

A back-of-the-envelope calculation (making some simple assumptions) says that were it to impact us, it would be an energy release of around 4 Megatons.<br /><br />*Yikes* <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><em>Differential Diagnosis:  </em>"<strong><em>I am both amused and annoyed that you think I should be less stubborn than you are</em></strong>."<br /> </p> </div>

 

[fatal291]

lol maby we could strap some rockets on the ISS and slam it into it to push it away from Earth.. the odds we face everyday are so much yet so over looked

 

[tony873004]

Thanks Silylene for the heads up on this newly-discovered asteroid.<br /><br />Current predictions don't make it look too scary. It will be nice to have some more precise data to see if this thing will come closer than the Moon's orbit.<br />

 

[mikeemmert]

<blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr /><p>...around 4 Megatons...<p><hr /></p></p></blockquote>Uhh...an object (a sphere) 425 meters across would have a <i>volume</i> of 40 million cubic meters (V=4/3 pi r^3). It it were the density of water (meaning it would have to be porous, which is reasonable) it would have a mass of 40 million metric tons. And it's speed, even if slow for an asteroid, will make it have more than 12 times as much energy as it's weight in TNT. So that's a minimum of 480 megatons.<br /><br />Maybe it'll hit the Sahara desert...

 

[yevaud]

Close (*heh - always check your math - I dropped a couiple of decimals, so I was off by a few orders of magnitude. Me bad*).<br /><br />Having refigured....<br /><br />I gave it a nice density of aroung 6 gm/cm^3, making it rocky, assumed it bore straight in (no reason, as likely as any other scenario), and gave it an impact velocity of 17 km/sec.<br /><br />829 Megatons. Wow. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><em>Differential Diagnosis:  </em>"<strong><em>I am both amused and annoyed that you think I should be less stubborn than you are</em></strong>."<br /> </p> </div>

 

[Philotas]

Spooky to think of that to current date, we have no way of deflecting an asteroid set for impact; let alone for the rest of this decade and some into the next.<br /><br />Any chance of it being visible to the naked eye? <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>

 

[astrophoto]

Whats the threshold in mass / density or megatons for an Earth Killer -- basically killing all larger life forms?

 

[yevaud]

Don't really know, though I could ballpark a guess. Possibly 20 times that of the asteroid in question? At a collision velocity of, say, 40 km/sec.?<br /><br />The reason I say that is it's pushing the dimensions/mass of the Chixlub impactor. Mind you, it's relative. We may well be able to avoid an entire die-off even so, as we are thinking and tool-using; something the dinosaurs were not.<br /><br />I do know that a 1,000 megaton, mostly ground-impacting thermonuclear war is sufficient to kick off a "Nuclear Winter," so that may well be your answer there. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><em>Differential Diagnosis:  </em>"<strong><em>I am both amused and annoyed that you think I should be less stubborn than you are</em></strong>."<br /> </p> </div>

 

[silylene old]

tony, I agree the chances of a collision are minute. That's why I titled the thread "will pay us a close visit in the summer", which is an accurate title. We will know much more as more data comes in and the trajectory can be computed with great accuracy. Almost always, as more data comes in, the chances of a collision decrease. I have been watching the NEAR and NEODYS for several years, daily.<br /><br />The trajectory you posted by the way is the "most likely" trajectory based upon the limited data set acquired so far. There is a huge error bar around that trajectory, and earth is included within that error bar. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature" align="center"><em><font color="#0000ff">- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -</font></em> </div><div class="Discussion_UserSignature" align="center"><font color="#0000ff"><em>I really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function.</em></font> </div> </div>

 

[tony873004]

Yes, the error bar is huge at the moment, (and 3-d which the image doesn't show).<br /><br />That's why more data to shrink it will be needed. I had never heard of this asteroid prior to your post, so I'm glad you're keeping on top of things. NEOs are facinating. When I get updated data, I'll post a new image. It will be fun to watch the error bar shrink and shift, just like Apophis.

 

[tony873004]

Yes, the error bar is huge at the moment, (and 3-d which the image doesn't show).<br /><br />That's why more data to shrink it will be needed. I had never heard of this asteroid prior to your post, so I'm glad you're keeping on top of things. NEOs are facinating. When I get updated data, I'll post a new image. It will be fun to watch the error bar shrink and shift, just like Apophis.

 

[vogon13]

I'm wearing my sunblock that day.<br /><br />Probably spend the day in the command bunker doing hideous experiments on some new victims. My gawd you humans can be whiny.<br /><br /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#ff0000"><strong>TPTB went to Dallas and all I got was Plucked !!</strong></font></p><p><font color="#339966"><strong>So many people, so few recipes !!</strong></font></p><p><font color="#0000ff"><strong>Let's clean up this stinkhole !!</strong></font> </p> </div>

 

[silylene old]

New orbital data was reported in today and a better orbit calculated by NEODYS Clomon.<br /><br />The Palermo Scale rating was increased substantially to -1.38, which now makes this about equal in danger to that of 2004MN4 Apophsis.<br /><br />However, the orbital arc which was measured is only 2.5 days long. this means that the errors bars are quite substantial. Don't get your underwear all bunched up! This is a <b>very early risk assessment</b>.<br /><br /><i>Even though the risks are very remote, and the data is very preliminary, as the we learn more, this will be interesting and worth watching!</i><br /><br /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature" align="center"><em><font color="#0000ff">- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -</font></em> </div><div class="Discussion_UserSignature" align="center"><font color="#0000ff"><em>I really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function.</em></font> </div> </div>

 

[tony873004]

What a difference a day makes.<br />http://orbitsimulator.com/BA/2006bq6.GIF<br />

 

[tony873004]

And it's been updated again. This image shows what Silylene was saying about Earth being within the error bar. The newest update has the asteroid passing the other side of Earth.<br />http://orbitsimulator.com/BA/2006bq6_1_26.GIF

 

[centsworth_II]

Wow! That line's really jumping around! <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>

 

[jstockton]

The thing about this one that's impressing me is that each day it is seeming to get closer and closer (now I'm sure the error bar is getting smaller each time too) and there still hasn't been any media attention.<br /><br />Considering how just a few years ago they would have had doomsday headlines all over the place I think either we have done a good job of teaching the media how little a chance of impact it actually is or else they just havn't seen it yet.<br /><br />Either way, I'm glad they havn't said anything yet <img src="/images/icons/smile.gif" />

 

[centsworth_II]

That's life in a shooting gallery!<img src="/images/icons/smile.gif" /><br /><br />Repeated reports of near misses are sure to take on an air of "crying wolf". By the time one really does get a bead on us who will believe it? Luckly the people that can actually do something about it are aware of the potential threat of killer asteroids and comets and are working on it. Unluckily there is no solution yet. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>

 

[silylene old]

It will get no press until there is confidence to raise the Torino scale to 1 or higher. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature" align="center"><em><font color="#0000ff">- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -</font></em> </div><div class="Discussion_UserSignature" align="center"><font color="#0000ff"><em>I really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function.</em></font> </div> </div>

 

[tony873004]

It gets a little further in the latest estimate. This makes the image bigger, so I rotated the image.<br />http://orbitsimulator.com/BA/2006bq6_1_27.GIF

 

[silylene old]

Based on the same observational data, JPL NEOPO gives it a closer assessment, with a relatively large Palermo Scale of -1.11.<br /><br />Interesting how the estimates diverge. Usually both programs give similar results. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature" align="center"><em><font color="#0000ff">- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -</font></em> </div><div class="Discussion_UserSignature" align="center"><font color="#0000ff"><em>I really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function.</em></font> </div> </div>

 

[tony873004]

Do you have a link for that? I'm getting my data from http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov (actually, the e-mail service described on the Ephemerides link on that web page) and then plugging their position and velocity vectors into my program.<br /><br />Following this thing from day to day is fun. The above web site usually updates around 2am Pacific Time.

 

[silylene old]

link here http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/db_shm?des=2006+BQ6<br /><br />JPL just increased the Palermo rating to -1.94, which puts it more similar to CLOMON. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature" align="center"><em><font color="#0000ff">- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -</font></em> </div><div class="Discussion_UserSignature" align="center"><font color="#0000ff"><em>I really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function.</em></font> </div> </div>