Asteroid may hit Mars, 1 in 75 chance. Tunguska sized

[bearack]

<blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr /><p>All well. I think Albert Einstein said it best: CRAAAAAAAP, wait maybe that was Rob Nissen, I'm not sure, but somebody said it. <p><hr /></p></p></blockquote><br /><br />I thought is was Thomas Crapper??? <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><br /><img id="06322a8d-f18d-4ab1-8ea7-150275a4cb53" src="http://sitelife.space.com/ver1.0/Content/images/store/6/14/06322a8d-f18d-4ab1-8ea7-150275a4cb53.Large.jpg" alt="blog post photo" /></p> </div>

 

[centsworth_II]

Your name, <font color="yellow">cyclonebuster,</font>indicates a possible interest in hurricanes, <br />so let me try this:<br /><br />Imagine a hurricane forms in the Atlantic Ocean off the coast of Africa, <br />heading toward the East coast of the USA. Initial predictions may have <br />it hitting land 200 miles north of Charleston, South Carolina, but the <br />cone of uncertainty goes from Miami to Baltimore. More data is gathered<br />and the cone of uncertainty shrinks to include only the coasts of Georgia,<br />South Carolina and North Carolina. At the same time, the predicted most<br />likely landfall moves closer to Charleston by 100 miles, is is now predicted <br />to hit 100 miles north of Charleston. More data is collected and the cone<br />of uncertainty shrinks to include only the Coast of North Carolina. <br />Charleston is no longer even considered a potential landfall site.<br /><br />If you follow hurricane activity at all, you must have seen this sort of<br />scenario many times. We here in Florida live it every year! It can be<br />frustrating but that is what happens when dealing with a situation <br />where you are trying to make predictions based on imperfect information<br />that only gets better as the event, whether it's an asteroid crossing<br />an orbit or a hurricane crossing a coastline, draws near.<br /> <br /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>

 

[3488]

I agree alokmohan.<br /><br />A great shame really. Think of what we could have learned from this impact. <img src="/images/icons/frown.gif" /><br /><br />Latest projection here. Even the error bars show a clear miss. <img src="/images/icons/mad.gif" /><br /><br />Minimum distance to Mars is expected to be approx 4,000 KM, still well inside the<br />orbit of Phobos, which orbits approx 9,400 KM from Mars.<br /><br />Andrew Brown. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080">"I suddenly noticed an anomaly to the left of Io, just off the rim of that world. It was extremely large with respect to the overall size of Io and crescent shaped. It seemed unbelievable that something that big had not been visible before".</font> <em><strong><font color="#000000">Linda Morabito </font></strong><font color="#800000">on discovering that the Jupiter moon Io was volcanically active. Friday 9th March 1979.</font></em></p><p><font size="1" color="#000080">http://www.launchphotography.com/</font><br /><br /><font size="1" color="#000080">http://anthmartian.googlepages.com/thisislandearth</font></p><p><font size="1" color="#000080">http://web.me.com/meridianijournal</font></p> </div>

 

[comga]

My opinion is the same. It is a shame and a disappointment, for many reasons.<br /><br />It just goes to show, if you want to see space objects collide, you have to make them collide. (Three cheers for Deep Impact!) <br /><br />Anyone seen any new predictions of the orbit after the encounter?

 

[silylene old]

More observational data in on VK184. The odds of impact with the earth on 2048 was increased to 0.03%. It is now Palermo Scale = -1.83, and Torino Scale 1.<br /><br />Next time we get more data, if this object remains interesting, I will start a new thread. <br /><br /><font color="yellow">EDIT:</font><br />I started a new thread on this here. Please use this thread for further discussion on VK184. thanks <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature" align="center"><em><font color="#0000ff">- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -</font></em> </div><div class="Discussion_UserSignature" align="center"><font color="#0000ff"><em>I really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function.</em></font> </div> </div>