China announces new 5 year plan for their space program

[ckikilwai]

full article: http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/content/?cid=5102<br /><br />They say they want a rover on the moon in 2012, so China will be stealing the show when NASA is still developing the Orion.<br />This is actually good news, it could put pressure on the president in office, so (s)he can't cut NASA's budget, and maybe even has to raise it, to keep the program on schedule.<br /><br />I've read somewhere on this forum that there would be no new real space race, because China wouldn't do a manned lunar mission earlier then the US, just to keep a "good" relationship.<br />Well they now plan to bring moon rocks back in 2017, 3 years before an American will do the same.<br /><br />I think the US goverment will have some reasons to keep the program on track in the next decade.

 

[gunsandrockets]

Thanx for the update!<br /><br />So it looks like China is officially committing to the new CZ-5 launch vehicle. That's important, for the CZ-5 would be the basis of expanded manned space efforts. In the heavy configuration with a large liquid hydrogen 3rd stage I estimate the CZ-5 could send a 15 tonne payload towards the moon, about 1/3 the capacity of the Saturn V.<br /><br /><They say they want a rover on the moon in 2012, so China will be stealing the show when NASA is still developing the Orion. /><br /><br />I don't think the Chinese lunar rover will outshine NASA, since NASA will have the large MSL rover on Mars at the same time.<br /><br />On the other hand China is likely to continue manned space efforts during the NASA manned spaceflight 'gap' between the retirement of the Shuttle and the first manned flight of the Orion. If China places a Salyt-sized manned space station in orbit during that gap then China would be stealing the show from NASA.

 

[christine16]

nice time is comminig

 

[no_way]

<blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr /><p>I don't think the Chinese lunar rover will outshine NASA, since NASA will have the large MSL rover on Mars at the same time. <p><hr /></p></p></blockquote><br />Depends. Chinese have stated many times that they are interested in "tapping the moons minerals", and when they have a nuclear-powered rover planned, its not too far-fetched to guess that they will take a stab at some ISRU experiments.<br />that, in my book, will definitely outshine any other science.

 

[deapfreeze]

I think its great news. If space agencies share info then NASA and others should be looking farther. Makes sense to me China is going to the moon then the next step for the others would logically be mars and so on. Why put all of the worlds space crews on missions to the moon? Lets spread out a little bit. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font size="2" color="#0000ff"><em>William ( deapfreeze ) Hooper</em></font></p><p><font size="1">http://deapfreeze-amateur-astronomy.tk/</font></p><p> </p> </div>

 

[qso1]

Excerpt from article:<br />China is also planning a lunar rover, to be launched 2012. The Chinese lunar plans are effectively divided in three stages: 2007 - orbiting the Moon; 2012 - unmanned vehicle on the lunar surface; and 2017 - unmanned lunar landing with collection of soil samples.<br /><br />Me:<br />I see lunar orbital in 2007...I haven't heard that they have sent anything to the moon as yet and 2007 is half over. As for stealing the show...China is simply getting to the place we have already been nearly four decades ago. Politicians may or may not choose to make it a space race but I think the real value lies in getting more countries interested in space exploration which will kind of keep us in the game while not necessarily making it a race.<br /><br />The real race ought to be which country sells private industry developed lunar orbit access to other countries like selling jetliners to the airlines both foreign and domestic. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><strong>My borrowed quote for the time being:</strong></p><p><em>There are three kinds of people in life. Those who make it happen, those who watch it happen...and those who do not know what happened.</em></p> </div>

 

[no_way]

<blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr /><p>I see lunar orbital in 2007...I haven't heard that they have sent anything to the moon as yet and 2007 is half over. <p><hr /></p></p></blockquote><br />http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chang'e_program<br />Its scheduled to launch in september<br />

 

[qso1]

Thanks for the link. They still have a decent margin for making 2007. Not that it really matters to me. I'll be pleased to see them get one to the moon 2007 or 2008.<br /><br />As the saying goes, the more the merrier. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><strong>My borrowed quote for the time being:</strong></p><p><em>There are three kinds of people in life. Those who make it happen, those who watch it happen...and those who do not know what happened.</em></p> </div>

 

[no_way]

If you follow the wiki links you'll see that they have stuff planned for 2008 and 2009 as well. However, judging by recent hints in articles the landers might be delayed from original schedules.<br />( I must say that my willingness to learn to at least read chinese and japanese written text is going up every day, babelfish and google translate just dont cut it )

 

[ckikilwai]

"If you follow the wiki links you'll see that they have stuff planned for 2008 and 2009 as well. However, judging by recent hints in articles the landers might be delayed from original schedules. "<br /><br />Those dates were probably based on the prediction that China would have the Long March 5 in 2008, they now hope that they can get this rocket operational in 2012 for the rovers.

 

[vulture2]

What, exactly, would the US have to gain from a new space race that would be worth the cost?<br /><br />The geopolitical objective of China's manned and scientific space program is fairly clear. They want acceptance as an equal on the world stage, and to enhance their visibility as a provider of high-tech exports and commercial launch services. This requires that they do something new and newsworthy once or twice a year, but not so often that it becomes routine. This explains the relatively slow pace of their manned program; won or lost, a race is soon over, and China wants to generate interest indefinitely.<br /><br />In line with their goal of acceptance rather than confrontation, a key Chinese objective for manned spaceflight was not to race the US to the moon, but to be invited to join the ISS program, a proposal which Mr. Griffin apparently chose to reject with no obvious logic and an unnecessary degree of contempt when he refused an invitation to visit a Chinese launch site. <br /><br />If China was in a race to the moon their flight rate would obviously be much higher than it is. But once they reached the moon they would face the same problem the US did after Apollo 11; there would be no way to maintain the high level of public interest except by even more costly spectaculars. And it is extremely unlikely China will develop a rocket in the Saturn V class (100T+ to LEO) until and unless there is a market for commercial payloads of this size. <br /><br />As a Chinese scientist friend told me recently, "If you want to race to the moon, go ahead. We will not race with you. You are racing by yourself."<br />

 

[gunsandrockets]

<What, exactly, would the US have to gain from a new space race that would be worth the cost? ><br /><br />Incentive, pure and simple. Many people think such an incentive is all that can sustain manned space exploration by NASA. I'm not one of them.<br /><br /><As a Chinese scientist friend told me recently, "If you want to race to the moon, go ahead. We will not race with you. You are racing by yourself." /><br /><br />I don't believe the Chinese are trying to compete with America in space. <br /><br /><The geopolitical objective of China's manned and scientific space program is fairly clear. They want acceptance as an equal on the world stage, and to enhance their visibility as a provider of high-tech exports and commercial launch services. /><br /><br />Chinese objectives and the means of obtaining those objectives are not as clear and simple as that.<br /><br /><In line with their goal of acceptance rather than confrontation,... /><br /><br />Acceptance? How does that explain the lunacy of the Chinese anti-satellite test? Cleary the right hand doesn't know what the left hand is doing in China. Also keep in mind the Chinese manned spaceflight program is a military space program, as if the Mercury, Gemini and Skylab projects were run by the U.S. Air Force instead of by NASA.<br /><br />Obviously the Chinese want to achieve a broad range of goals including commercial. But the objective of the Chinese manned spaceflight program is one of pure national prestige, not for the sake of impressing the world but for impressing the populace of China.<br /><br />The Communist Party of China fears the populace and is always mindful they are riding the tiger. Efforts to stir up nationalistic fervor are part of maintaining obedience to the party. So the Chinese manned spaceflight program is very like the Kruschev program, mere space spectaculars intended to impress an audience.<br /><br /><If China was in a race to the moon their flight rate would obviously be much h

 

[vulture2]

>>Acceptance? How does that explain the lunacy of the Chinese anti-satellite test? Cleary the right hand doesn't know what the left hand is doing in China.<br /><br />I agree there are different groups with different agendas. However according to my Chinese friend the ASAT test was far from lunacy; it was a message, not to the US, but to Taiwan. The meaning of the message was that should China decide to invade Taiwan, it will not be deterred by the possibility of US intervention, because in reality the US will think twice before doing so. The political objective of the message was to pressure the Taiwanese government to give up talk of independence. A subtle message, perhaps, but my friend was confident it reached its intended audience.<br /><br /> />>The Communist Party of China fears the populace and is always mindful they are riding the tiger. Efforts to stir up nationalistic fervor are part of maintaining obedience to the party.<br /><br />Kissinger and Nixon initiated massive cultural exchanges with China in hopes that American political and economic ideas would undermine Communism. On the economic side, at least, they succeeded beyond their wildest dreams. Chinese today are not loyal to the Communist Party because they are all capitalists. They aren't bothered by the lack of democracy but they will support the current leadership only as long as they enjoy rapid economic growth.<br /><br /> />>But if the Chinese wanted to perform a simple circumlunar flyby mission, that is easy to achieve and a single launch of the new CZ-5 booster as all that would be needed.<br /><br />I agree this is the type of mission they might undertake; something that would grab headlines with a modest budget.

 

[ckikilwai]

"However according to my Chinese friend the ASAT test was far from lunacy; it was a message, not to the US, but to Taiwan. The meaning of the message was that should China decide to invade Taiwan, it will not be deterred by the possibility of US intervention, because in reality the US will think twice before doing so. The political objective of the message was to pressure the Taiwanese government to give up talk of independence. A subtle message, perhaps, but my friend was confident it reached its intended audience. "<br /><br />The US already knew that China had the capability to launch satellite killers, before they tested one, and I doubt the US would go into a war with China, they have enough trouble elsewhere. <br /><br />"If China was in a race to the moon their flight rate would obviously be much higher than it is. But once they reached the moon they would face the same problem the US did after Apollo 11; there would be no way to maintain the high level of public interest except by even more costly spectaculars. And it is extremely unlikely China will develop a rocket in the Saturn V class (100T+ to LEO) until and unless there is a market for commercial payloads of this size."<br /><br />I find it very conspicuous that China is only interested in the moon and its resources, there hasn't been a word about studying other planets or the Sun.<br />I mean the first probe they are sending to the moon is to find more resources that can be mined, and if they do find 5 more interesting elements, it would hardly make the news in the Western world.<br />The rovers have the sames purpose as the probe, search for interesting resources.<br />You would start to think they want to mine the moon one day <img src="/images/icons/smile.gif" /><br />

 

[alokmohan]

find it very conspicuous that China is only interested in the moon and its resources, there hasn't been a word about studying other planets or the Sun. <br />I mean the first probe they are sending to the moon is to find more resources From 1970 NASA IS MAKING TALLPROMISES ON LUNAR BASE.Give China 35 years for making tall promises.n Why US is not going to mars?It is feasible .Zubrin is ready with scheme.

 

[vulture2]

>>I find it very conspicuous that China is only interested in the moon and its resources, there hasn't been a word about studying other planets or the Sun. I mean the first probe they are sending to the moon is to find more resources that can be mined, and if they do find 5 more interesting elements, it would hardly make the news in the Western world.<br /><br />China has launched several scientific satellites with instruments to study the near-earth space environment, presumably as a precursor to communicaitons and weather satellites and human flight in LEO, Planetary probes are not required for their immediate objectives, and would require a deep-space tracking network with stations around the world, which China does not currently have.<br /><br />Lunar resources are discussed in general terms by leaders in the Chinese space program; I suspect that, as in the US, this is an attempt by people within the space program to justify thier mission rather than an objective imposed by the national government. China has no plans to actually mine materials on the moon, nor is there any currently forseable way it could profit by doing so. However China believes a lunar probe would give it a seat in any international discussions on the future of the moon, advancing it's goal of national prestige, as noted below, and might feel it would have some assurance of a share in the unlikely event that something profitable turns up.<br /><br />It's difficult to see how an unmanned Chinese lunar probe constitutes any competitive threat to the US, but if it does, why has NASA essentially cancelled its own unmanned lunar lander plans on the grounds that such missions are unnecessary to our "real" goal of more manned lunar flights? <br /><br />reference:<br />http://english.people.com.cn/200702/07/eng20070207_348107.html<br />

 

[edkyle98]

China will have a rover on the Moon. Good for China, but why would that affect decision making in the U.S.? NASA has two live rovers (and one dead one) on Mars. It has a robot orbiting Saturn and another on the way to Pluto. It also has three battery powered cars parked on the Moon that were driven for long distances across the surface by live humans more than 30 years ago. There are well-used Russian rovers on the moon too. <br /><br />When it comes to the Moon, NASA has been there and done that. It was news at first, but the public quickly lost interest once the monotony of the place became apparent. It was just dust and rocks, dust and rocks.<br /><br />- Ed Kyle<br /><br />

 

[no_way]

<blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr /><p>Lunar resources are discussed in general terms by leaders in the Chinese space program;<p><hr /></p></p></blockquote><br />This is not entirely correct. I quote from wikipedia ( dont have time to look up the original articles )<br /><blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr /><p>Ouyang Ziyuan, one of the most prominent Chinese experts in geological research on underground nuclear testing and extraterrestrial materials, was naturally the first to advocate not only the exploitation of the known huge lunar reserves of metals such as iron, but also the mining of lunar helium-3 as an ideal fuel for nuclear fusion power plants. He is now in charge of the Chang'e program. <p><hr /></p></p></blockquote><br />Its clearly more than just "discussion to give things some overall justification". There are people at top ranks of Chinese lunar program that appear to genuinely believe that moon will become a place of significant economic interest in years to come, and are positioning this as a core driver of their program.<br />

 

[ckikilwai]

<font color="orange">"China has no plans to actually mine materials on the moon, nor is there any currently forseable way it could profit by doing so. However China believes a lunar probe would give it a seat in any international discussions on the future of the moon, advancing it's goal of national prestige, as noted below, and might feel it would have some assurance of a share in the unlikely event that something profitable turns up."</font><br /><br />If China doesn't have any plans after the soil return mission for the moon, China would have little to say in such international discussions.<br />Having a base on the moon (or planning to have one) would give China a much bigger involvement in such international discussions.<br />I see that China is really building up its lunar exploration: first phase orbiting, second phase landing, third phase returning and then stop, just to have a seat at a discussion where the US has the word, because they are actually the only country who has some real plans for the moon?<br /><br /><font color="orange">"It's difficult to see how an unmanned Chinese lunar probe constitutes any competitive threat to the US, but if it does, why has NASA essentially cancelled its own unmanned lunar lander plans on the grounds that such missions are unnecessary to our "real" goal of more manned lunar flights?"</font><br /><br />Because NASA already knows how to shoot a probe around the moon, and how to land on it and to return.<br />China doesn't have this experience and before they can launch people around or on the moon, they must have done this with probes. <br /><br /><font color="orange">"China will have a rover on the Moon. Good for China, but why would that affect decision making in the U.S.? NASA has two live rovers (and one dead one) on Mars. It has a robot orbiting Saturn and another on the way to Pluto. It also has three battery powered cars parked on the Moon that were driven for long distances across the surface by live huma</font>

 

[no_way]

they also have a 2009 mars orbiter in the works, tentatively named Yinghuo I<br />http://www.shanghaidaily.com/sp/article/2007/200705/20070522/article_316758.htm<br /><br />As Long March V will not be available, they are hitching a ride on R7.