China Space Program $36 billion

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yree

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Chang Cheng 1<br /> <br />Chang Cheng 1<br />Chang Cheng 1<br />Credit: © Mark Wade<br />Class: Manned. Type: Spaceplane. Nation: China. Manufacturer: SAST.<br /><br />The Chang Cheng 1 (Great Wall 1) vertical takeoff / horizontal landing two-stage space shuttle was a compromise design created jointly by Shanghai Astronautics Bureau 805 (now the Shanghai Academy of Spaceflight Technology) and Institute 604 of the Air Ministry in 1988. An expendable booster, consisting of three of Shanghai's planned liquid oxygen/kerosene modular boosters, would boost the winged second stage shuttle to a high altitude. The engines of the winged shuttle stage would take it to orbit. This approach would allow a first flight to be made in 2008.<br /><br />Each of the modular booster stages designed by Shanghai were 4.5 m in diameter and 29 m long, with a mass of 330 tonnes. The shuttle had a wingspan of 17 m, a length of 24 m, and a 4.5 m fuselage diameter. It was essentially a 2/3 scale version of the American shuttle, with half the wing area and launch mass. It is probable that the spacecraft used the same propulsion systems as the upper stage of the Shanghai upper stage expendable system. This would mean the upper stage was around 57 tonnes in mass, with just over half of that being propellant, yielding a net payload to orbit of 6 tonnes plus a crew of two.<br /><br />China began preliminary work on advanced manned spaceflight in July 1985. The decision came against a background of vigorous international space activity. The United States had its Strategic Defence Initiative and Space Station Freedom. The Soviet Union had its Buran shuttle system, Mir and Mir-2 space stations, and its own star wars program. Europe was developing the Hermes manned spaceplane, and Japan the Hope winged spacecraft. Even India and China were taking on ambitious space projects. It seemed China would have to take action to remain a world power.<br /><br />Ren Xin Min, the leading Chinese rocketry expert of the time, bel
 
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formulaterp

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You realize those are cancelled programs right?<br /><br />$36 Billion is approximately 9% of China's entire budget. There is no way on earth they are spending that kind of money annually. <br /><br />
 
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spayss

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It's a bit of an apple and orange comparison. China has largely a state-run economy and a $1 spent in China means what? It can buy a half day's labor yet at the state level still can't buy a half day's quality results.<br /><br /> The absolute amount in dollar terms that China spends on anything is hard to measure in actual bang for the buck. Then to add to the mishmash are different accounting procedures, a fuzzing of military and space, etc. and....?<br /><br /> It's a positive that China has moved into the space arena but the priority that has in the Chinese scheme of things is hard to get a handle on.
 
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formulaterp

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<font color="yellow">It's a bit of an apple and orange comparison. China has largely a state-run economy and a $1 spent in China means what? It can buy a half day's labor yet at the state level still can't buy a half day's quality results.<br /></font><br /><br />Actually it's more similar to our way of doing things than you might imagine. They have a finance ministry which comes up with projected revenues and a budget, and details of how they are going to spend the money. They also have budget deficits and have to sell bonds to make up the shortfall, just like us.<br /><br />The Chinese unit of currency, the yuan, is traded on world currency markets at the rate of 8y=1$. I used this figure, along with published budgets to come up with the 9% estimate. I agree that the fuzzy line between civilain/military space expenditure makes for a difficult comparison, but it is ridiculous to believe they are spending anywhere close to that kind of money on Shenzou and related projects. <br /><br />Just in case they are, I don't think we have anything to worry about being beaten back to the Moon or to Mars. Apparently $36 billion only buys you 1 Shenzou mission every 2 years.
 
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enricofermi

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I think China knows the future of military technology, should it escalate, involves space and surely has no problem investing large amounts of money in it. And look at how much Russia spent on both space and nuclear weapons? <br /><br />I wouldn't be surprised if they are spending more.
 
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Kevin_J_waldroup

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<p>Shenlong Space Plane Advances China&rsquo;s Military Space Potential<br /><br />emailEmail this article<br />printPrint this article<br /><br />by Richard Fisher, Jr.<br />Published on December 17th, 2007<br />ARTICLES<br /><br />A chance December 11, 2007 release of a photo on a Chinese website has led to a rare unofficial &ldquo;declassification&rdquo; of a new Chinese unmanned test space plane.[1] Designated the &ldquo;Shenlong,&rdquo; or Divine Dragon, this small aircraft was shown suspended from the fuselage of a Xian H-6 bomber and launch aircraft.&nbsp; So far there has been no official Chinese government, PLA or Chinese corporate or space program related disclosure about this program.&nbsp; However, from this photo and other Chinese sources, it is possible to conclude that the Shenlong constitutes a second Chinese air-launched space-launch vehicle (SLV) program, but for the purposes of testing technologies for a future re-usable unmanned or manned space shuttle or other trans-atmospheric vehicle.&nbsp; <br /><br /><br />http://www.strategycenter.net/research/pubID.174/pub_detail.asp<br /><br /><br />China&rsquo;s Direct Ascent ASAT<br /><br />emailEmail this article<br />printPrint this article<br /><br />by Richard Fisher, Jr.<br />Published on January 20th, 2007<br />ARTICLES<br /><br />"China is believed to be conducting research and development on a direct-ascent ASAT [anti-satellite] system that could be fielded in the 2005-2010 timeframe."[1] This prediction from the 2003 Department of Defense annual report on Chinese military modernization became a reality on January 11, 2007 when a Chinese direct ascent ASAT intercepted and destroyed a Chinese weather satellite over China.<br /><br />According to U.S. government sources, on January 11, 2007, China launched a missile which intercepted and destroyed a Chinese FY-1C weather satellite as it passed over China. This was first reported on January 17 by Craig Covault, the respected space reporter for Aviation Week and Space Technology.[2] On the morning of January 18, Reuters reported U.S. National Security Council spokesman Gordon Johndroe as saying with a "&hellip;a ground-based medium-range ballistic missile, the test knocked out an aging Chinese weather satellite about 537 miles above the earth on January 11 through "kinetic impact," or by slamming into it."[3]<br />http://www.strategycenter.net/research/pubID.142/pub_detail.asp</p><p>&nbsp;</p> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>
 
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Kevin_J_waldroup

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<h2 align="center"><font color="#004080">China - The Next Independent Man-in-Space<br /> Programme ?</font></h2> <p align="center">Phillip Clark</p> <p align="center"><font size="2"><em>This is the original, unedited text which was published in 'Jane's intelligence Review', April 1997 (pages 178-182) underthe title 'Chinese Designs on the Race to Space'.</em></font></p> <hr /> <p>In recent years the Chinese space programme has received a bad reputation in the western press as a result of four apparent launch vehicle failures. At the end of 1992 the American-built Optus-B 2 was lost in a launch mishap which was widely portrayed as a failure of the Chinese CZ-2E launch vehicle. Chinese statements (for example in the user manual for their CZ-3A/3B/3C launch vehicles) that their launch vehicle performed flawlessly and there was a fault with the satellite causing it to explode during the ascent to orbit have been either ignored or ridiculed in western aerospace reports.</p> <p>The loss of Optus-B 2 was apparently repeated in January 1995 when APStar 2 was lost in an almost-identical failure - the difference being that this time the satellite explosion caused the whole launch vehicle to explode shortly after launch. Again, the western aerospace press blamed the "inferior" Chinese space programme.</p> <p>In 1996 there were two launch vehicle failures which were definitely the fault of the Chinese launch vehicles: in February INTELSAT 708 was lost on the maiden flight of the CZ-3B and in August Zhongxing 7 was stranded in a useless orbit when the CZ-3 third stage shut down earlier than planned.</p> <p>With this record of well-publicised apparent and real failures and little western coverage of successful Chinese missions, Chinese claims of a manned space programme have been looked upon as "wishful thinking" outside China, but evidence is growing that the Chinese are working towards the launch of a domestic manned spacecraft around the turn of the millennium.</p>http://www.geocities.com/CapeCanaveral/Launchpad/1921/story-3.htm <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>
 
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qso1

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<p><font color="#800080">You realize those are cancelled programs right? $36 Billion is approximately 9% of China's entire budget. There is no way on earth they are spending that kind of money annually. Posted by formulaterp</font></p><p>I agree. If there $36 billion is roughly equivalent to our money. We spent approximately $1.25 billion 1965 dollars ($8.27 b 2007 dollars). China has only sent two manned missions up in two years. That money must be going into the strictly military part of their program such as recon satellites, ASATs assuming the $36 billion is correct or that its a close match to our dollar.</p> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><strong>My borrowed quote for the time being:</strong></p><p><em>There are three kinds of people in life. Those who make it happen, those who watch it happen...and those who do not know what happened.</em></p> </div>
 
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JonClarke

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<p><BR/>Replying to:<BR/><DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>You realize those are cancelled programs right? $36 Billion is approximately 9% of China's entire budget. There is no way on earth they are spending that kind of money annually. Posted by formulaterpI agree. If there $36 billion is roughly equivalent to our money. We spent approximately $1.25 billion 1965 dollars ($8.27 b 2007 dollars). China has only sent two manned missions up in two years. That money must be going into the strictly military part of their program such as recon satellites, ASATs assuming the $36 billion is correct or that its a close match to our dollar. <br />Posted by qso1</DIV></p><p>Chinese space spending goes into diverse fields, including human space flight, space science, nvigation, comminucations, and remote sensing.&nbsp; It also launches commerical payloads.&nbsp; Military space spending appears very small.&nbsp; From January 2004 they have launched 15 satellites. <br /></p> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><em>Whether we become a multi-planet species with unlimited horizons, or are forever confined to Earth will be decided in the twenty-first century amid the vast plains, rugged canyons and lofty mountains of Mars</em>  Arthur Clarke</p> </div>
 
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keermalec

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<p><BR/>Replying to:<BR/><DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>Chinese space spending goes into diverse fields, including human space flight, space science, nvigation, comminucations, and remote sensing.&nbsp; It also launches commerical payloads.&nbsp; Military space spending appears very small.&nbsp; From January 2004 they have launched 15 satellites. <br />Posted by jonclarke</DIV></p><p>China had an estimated&nbsp;GDP of 3,249 billion USD in 2007, for a purchasing power parity of 7,043 billion USD (USA = 13,860 billion). Government revenues were 640.6 billion USD (USA = 2,570 billion).</p><p>Spending&nbsp;36 billion actual USD on the space program would equate to 5.6% of the national budget.&nbsp;Spending 36 billion USD in purchasing power (ie 16.6 billion USD at currente xchange rates) would equate to 2.6% of the national budget. NASA's spending at the height of the Apollo program was 2-4% of national budget. </p><p>Incidentally,&nbsp;36 billion USD, which represents 16.6 billion USD corrected for purchasing power parity&nbsp;<u>is</u> one half of 1 percent of GDP... </p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><em>“An error does not become a mistake until you refuse to correct it.” John F. Kennedy</em></p> </div>
 
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qso1

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Any idea as to the actual size of their space exploration budget? <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><strong>My borrowed quote for the time being:</strong></p><p><em>There are three kinds of people in life. Those who make it happen, those who watch it happen...and those who do not know what happened.</em></p> </div>
 
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Kevin_J_waldroup

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Replying to:<BR/><DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>You realize those are cancelled programs right? $36 Billion is approximately 9% of China's entire budget. There is no way on earth they are spending that kind of money annually. Posted by formulaterpI agree. If there $36 billion is roughly equivalent to our money. We spent approximately $1.25 billion 1965 dollars ($8.27 b 2007 dollars). China has only sent two manned missions up in two years. That money must be going into the strictly military part of their program such as recon satellites, ASATs assuming the $36 billion is correct or that its a close match to our dollar. <br /> Posted by qso1</DIV><br /><dl id="comments-block"><dt id="c113233404234517383"> <br /></dt><dt id="c113233404234517383">http://www.spacepragmatism.net/2005/11/china-spends-how-much.html</dt><dt id="c113233404234517383"><br /></dt><dt id="c113233404234517383">5% of the Chinese GDP would be $36 billion -- as much as all civillian and military space activities in the US combined. So I don't think this is accurate.</dt><dt id="c113233404234517383"><img src="http://sitelife.space.com/ver1.0/content/scripts/tinymce/plugins/emotions/images/smiley-cool.gif" border="0" alt="Cool" title="Cool" /> <br /></dt></dl> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>
 
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qso1

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<p>I agree, I'm wondering where the $36 billion figure came from. The NASA budget is currently about $17 billion annually and DOD was over $20 billion annually last I checked...a decade or so ago. </p> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><strong>My borrowed quote for the time being:</strong></p><p><em>There are three kinds of people in life. Those who make it happen, those who watch it happen...and those who do not know what happened.</em></p> </div>
 
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JonClarke

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<p>"Chen said China was spending a mere 10 percent of the United States' 2007 expenditure on its space programme."</p><p>http://www.spacedaily.com/reports/China_says_space_ambitions_no_cause_for_foreign_concern_999.html</p><p>Therefore ~1.7 billion, equivalent perhaps to ~3 billion in adjusted terms.</p><p>&nbsp;</p> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><em>Whether we become a multi-planet species with unlimited horizons, or are forever confined to Earth will be decided in the twenty-first century amid the vast plains, rugged canyons and lofty mountains of Mars</em>  Arthur Clarke</p> </div>
 
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JonClarke

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<p><BR/>Replying to:<BR/><DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>Chinese space spending goes into diverse fields, including human space flight, space science, nvigation, comminucations, and remote sensing.&nbsp; It also launches commerical payloads.&nbsp; Military space spending appears very small.&nbsp; From January 2004 they have launched 15 satellites. <br />Posted by jonclarke</DIV></p><p>Make that more than 30 satellites<br /></p> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><em>Whether we become a multi-planet species with unlimited horizons, or are forever confined to Earth will be decided in the twenty-first century amid the vast plains, rugged canyons and lofty mountains of Mars</em>  Arthur Clarke</p> </div>
 
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wubblie

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<p><BR/>Replying to:<BR/><DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>"Chen said China was spending a mere 10 percent of the United States' 2007 expenditure on its space programme."</DIV></p><p>But China can probably do a lot more with that money, given that thier R and D budget consists of Xerox fees. <br /> </p>
 
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qso1

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If I were Xerox...I'd feel a bit ripped off. If China spent even close to $36 bill so far and sent man into space only twice in two years...Don't think I'd be seeing it as getting a lot more bang for the Xerox buck. Consider both the U.S. and Soviets first human flight programs (Mercury, Vostok/Voskhod) usually had manned flights every couple months from the start. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><strong>My borrowed quote for the time being:</strong></p><p><em>There are three kinds of people in life. Those who make it happen, those who watch it happen...and those who do not know what happened.</em></p> </div>
 
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JonClarke

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<p><BR/>Replying to:<BR/><DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>If I were Xerox...I'd feel a bit ripped off. If China spent even close to $36 bill so far and sent man into space only twice in two years...Don't think I'd be seeing it as getting a lot more bang for the Xerox buck. Consider both the U.S. and Soviets first human flight programs (Mercury, Vostok/Voskhod) usually had manned flights every couple months from the start. <br />Posted by qso1</DIV></p><p>There is a lot more to the Chinese space program than putting people into space.&nbsp; There are commincations satellites, Earth observation satellites, space science missions, lunar and planetary probes, navigation satellites, and of course the military aspects.&nbsp; They are in hurry and are building reliable capability, partnerships with other countries and organisations&nbsp;and infrastructure.&nbsp; They are not racing anyone and certainly are not into space spectaculars for their own sake.</p><p>Jon<br /></p> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><em>Whether we become a multi-planet species with unlimited horizons, or are forever confined to Earth will be decided in the twenty-first century amid the vast plains, rugged canyons and lofty mountains of Mars</em>  Arthur Clarke</p> </div>
 
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keermalec

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Replying to:<BR/><DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>But China can probably do a lot more with that money, given that thier R and D budget consists of Xerox fees. <br />Posted by wubblie</DIV><br /><br />LOL <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><em>“An error does not become a mistake until you refuse to correct it.” John F. Kennedy</em></p> </div>
 
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qso1

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<p><font color="#800080">There is a lot more to the Chinese space program than putting people into space.&nbsp; There are commincations satellites, Earth observation satellites, space science missions, lunar and planetary probes, navigation satellites, and of course the military aspects.&nbsp; They are in hurry and are building reliable capability, partnerships with other countries and organisations&nbsp;and infrastructure.&nbsp; They are not racing anyone and certainly are not into space spectaculars for their own sake.Jon Posted by jonclarke</font></p><p>I agree. They have quite an extensive program developed over the years since their first launch back in 1970 IIRC. In past posts people tried to suggest a new space race was underway and I'd point out that the Chinese are moving slowly. My reason for saying I'd feel a bit ripped off if I were them is that the progress they have made should not cost so much money.</p><p>But then, I'm not convinced they are spending that much money.&nbsp;</p> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><strong>My borrowed quote for the time being:</strong></p><p><em>There are three kinds of people in life. Those who make it happen, those who watch it happen...and those who do not know what happened.</em></p> </div>
 
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h2ouniverse

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<p><BR/>Replying to:<BR/><DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>There is a lot more to the Chinese space program than putting people into space.&nbsp; There are commincations satellites, ....</DIV></p><p>Indeed.</p><p>They build some comm satellites by their own. They also buy some to foreign firms, like Chinasat9 just launched</p><p>http://www.space.com/missionlaunches/080610-chinasat9-longmarch3b.html<br />I&nbsp;wonder if this one is counted in the total budget you mention. (probably negligble anyway versus a 36bn figure)</p>
 
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JonClarke

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<p><BR/>Replying to:<BR/><DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>But then, I'm not convinced they are spending that much money.&nbsp; <br />Posted by qso1</DIV></p><p>I can't see them spending more than a 10h of the suggested amount.</p><p>Jon<br /></p> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><em>Whether we become a multi-planet species with unlimited horizons, or are forever confined to Earth will be decided in the twenty-first century amid the vast plains, rugged canyons and lofty mountains of Mars</em>  Arthur Clarke</p> </div>
 
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qso1

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I agree, that probably much closer to the actual amount. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><strong>My borrowed quote for the time being:</strong></p><p><em>There are three kinds of people in life. Those who make it happen, those who watch it happen...and those who do not know what happened.</em></p> </div>
 
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keermalec

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<p><BR/>Replying to:<BR/><DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>I agree, that probably much closer to the actual amount. <br />Posted by qso1</DIV><br /><br />Agree&nbsp;too, their&nbsp;launch technology level will be coming close to the ESA's&nbsp;once&nbsp;the CZ-5 is ready. And the ESA is spending 4.26 billion a year. So China's spending is clearly less than this today.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><em>“An error does not become a mistake until you refuse to correct it.” John F. Kennedy</em></p> </div>
 
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