China Space Program $36 billion

[wubblie]

<p class="MsoNormal">The thing that is interesting about the Chinese, is that they tend to become involved in "megaprojects." During the 90's it was the Three Gorges Dam. During this decade, it is the building associated with Olympic Games (the most expensive ever). I think there is little doubt that their next megaproject will be development of their space program. They will soon have more money to spend on this (the Olympics are over this year, Three Gorges Dam will be completed in 2011). It will be interesting to see how quickly they will proceed when their national energy is focused on this target exclusively. Another aspect of their space program is that they don't reinvent the wheel. If the Russians have already developed the technology they need, then they use that. This allows them to have a lower cost, less development time program than we have. So just because their budget is a fraction of ours, does not mean that their results will be.</p>

 

[qso1]

<p><font color="#800080">This allows them to have a lower cost, less development time program than we have. So just because their budget is a fraction of ours, does not mean that their results will be. Posted by wubblie</font></p><p>Right now, there space program would not be producing anywhere near the results one would expect for $36 billion dollars assuming that is equivalent to U.s. dollars and assuming thats whats already been spent. If they were to spend $36 B dollars and have a three gorges space sprogram, then it would be megaspace on a mini budget. &nbsp;</p> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><strong>My borrowed quote for the time being:</strong></p><p><em>There are three kinds of people in life. Those who make it happen, those who watch it happen...and those who do not know what happened.</em></p> </div>

 

[job1207]

<p>Seriously, where is the beef? With $36 Billion dollars a year the US could continue the Space Shuttle program while developing Aries and Orion and maybe a couple of other things. </p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>I say again, where is the beef?China has much lower costs, and I still don't see anything flying, for the most part. </p>

 

[qso1]

<p><font color="#800080">Seriously, where is the beef? With $36 Billion dollars a year the US could continue the Space Shuttle program while developing Aries and Orion and maybe a couple of other things. &nbsp;I say again, where is the beef?China has much lower costs, and I still don't see anything flying, for the most part. Posted by job1207</font></p><p>My question continues to be "What was the source of the $36 billion dollar figure"?&nbsp;</p> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><strong>My borrowed quote for the time being:</strong></p><p><em>There are three kinds of people in life. Those who make it happen, those who watch it happen...and those who do not know what happened.</em></p> </div>

 

[job1207]

<p>Anyway, do you think that the Plan to go to the Moon and then to Mars would exist if China was not planning to go to the Moon? Competition is good. It breeds certain inefficiencies that make people spend more money then they would otherwise, in order to win the competition. </p><p>Now, since China started fifty years after the US, more or less, they will be able to catch up faster than many would like. Afterall, we went to the moon on slide rules. I still can't believe that happened, even though I watched it. Again, I am talking to the choir in some respects, but I remember watching a program on the Gemini spacecraft that went off kilter. They went and took many minutes to manually input the commands for the computer. I could go on, again I am talking to the choir.&nbsp;</p><p>Nowadays, you have petaflop computers. Interesting. While the Chinese are behind, they are also four times bigger than the US. That means that they have the same likelihood as the US, that a bunch of geniuses will be available to run their space program.&nbsp;</p><p>To date, China is doing OK. Frankly, they could be doing much better actually. That makes you wonder. I am certainly too far away to do more than that. </p><p>So, the Chinese space effort is keeping the American space effort healthy.The Chinese have a LOT of hurdles to overcome. Mainly corruption, their poor system of government, the half the country that does NOT have electricity, and the huge number of people who do not get enough food to max out the personal development. ( They do not go hungry, but they are not exactly eating meet three times a day. )&nbsp; </p><p>Great countries like ours, have only one thing to fear, and that is fascism. We are getting out of the W era by the skin of our teeth, and the country, at least by the opinion polls is NOT going back to this totally bankrupt form of governance any time soon. Yes, out biggest worry is overextension, not the Chinese. The country was being run by a bunch of Straussians.&nbsp; </p><p>All of this translates to thing, MORE JOBS, for you. So enjoy the second coming of the space race. It is more of a walk, but it is the best we have got.&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leo_Strauss Take a look, and you will find a LONG list of folks belonging to this way of thinking in the current government.&nbsp; </p>

 

[wubblie]

The Chinese also have the benefit that they know what works already. They don't have to make many of the mistakes that the USSR and Americans made. So no space shuttle or large space station to get them sidetracked. No capsules with pure oxygen (the USSR made that mistake too). Also, I've always thought that the closer a country is to a command-style economy, the better it's space program can be. The USSR had an economy 1/8th the size of ours, but at one time thay had a manned launcher, a space station module launcher (Proton), a shuttle, and an interplanetary size lifter (Energia). The ESA would be the other end of the spectrum, where not only do the individual citizens have to agree in majority on the level of space funding, but then the countries involved also have to agree. It is not a surprise that even though they are the worlds largest economy, they do not have their own manned space program. So I believe that the Chinese political system may be better suited than ours to maintain the steady commitment needed to eventually push towards the moon and Mars.&nbsp; I also agree that because of our political system, we will not really commit to anything in space unless there is outside pressure to do so. So we should all wish the Chinese well in their space endeavors.

 

[qso1]

<p><font color="#800080">Anyway, do you think that the Plan to go to the Moon and then to Mars would exist if China was not planning to go to the Moon? Competition is good. It breeds certain inefficiencies that make people spend more money then they would otherwise, in order to win the competition.</font></p><p>China has stated its ambitious space plans several times since 1980. I recall seeing their plans in 1980 for a space shuttle that never materialized. The fact that we have plans to go to the moon is simply a reflection that NASA cannot do what it was tasked to do prior to the Bush lunar mandate. Without proper funding, NASA was not able to develop inexpensive access to low orbit.</p><p>The Bush plan to return to the moon was partly in response to the question of what to do after shuttle retires. As for Mars, there are no serious plans for the U.S. to go to mars. Only the vague promise that we might go to mars sometime after 2020.&nbsp;</p><p><font color="#800080">Now, since China started fifty years after the US, more or less, they will be able to catch up faster than many would like. Afterall, we went to the moon on slide rules. I still can't believe that happened, even though I watched it. Again, I am talking to the choir in some respects, but I remember watching a program on the Gemini spacecraft that went off kilter. They went and took many minutes to manually input the commands for the computer. I could go on, again I am talking to the choir.</font></p><p>Your right, China could catch up faster by relying on the knowledge base of human spaceflight established by the U.S. and Russia. But so far, no indication that this is actually happening.&nbsp;</p><p><font color="#800080">Nowadays, you have petaflop computers. Interesting. While the Chinese are behind, they are also four times bigger than the US. That means that they have the same likelihood as the US, that a bunch of geniuses will be available to run their space program.&nbsp;To date, China is doing OK. Frankly, they could be doing much better actually. That makes you wonder. I am certainly too far away to do more than that. So, the Chinese space effort is keeping the American space effort healthy.</font></p><p>Again, there is no indication the Chinese space effort is keeping our effort healthy. Frankly, our human spaceflight effort is minimal at best. Retirement of the shuttle with a four plus year gap between the shuttles last flight and Orions first...IF Orion materializes. ISS being the only other place we can send humans and will one day rely on the Russians to get them up there. We don't sound all that healthy if you ask me.&nbsp;</p><p><font color="#800080">The Chinese have a LOT of hurdles to overcome. Mainly corruption, their poor system of government, the half the country that does NOT have electricity, and the huge number of people who do not get enough food to max out the personal development. ( They do not go hungry, but they are not exactly eating meet three times a day. )&nbsp; Great countries like ours, have only one thing to fear, and that is fascism. We are getting out of the W era by the skin of our teeth, and the country, at least by the opinion polls is NOT going back to this totally bankrupt form of governance any time soon. Yes, out biggest worry is overextension, not the Chinese. The country was being run by a bunch of Straussians.&nbsp; All of this translates to thing, MORE JOBS, for you. So enjoy the second coming of the space race. It is more of a walk, but it is the best we have got.&nbsp;&nbsp;http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leo_Strauss Take a look, and you will find a LONG list of folks belonging to this way of thinking in the current government. Posted by job1207</font></p><p>I hope your right.&nbsp;</p> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><strong>My borrowed quote for the time being:</strong></p><p><em>There are three kinds of people in life. Those who make it happen, those who watch it happen...and those who do not know what happened.</em></p> </div>

 

[vulture4]

<p><BR/>Replying to:<BR/><DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>.China does spend about one-half of 1 percent of its gross domestic product (GDP) on its space program, and since the nation's GDP has risen 30 percent since 2002 due to a booming economy, more funding is expected http://space.com/news/051117_aas_china.html http://spacepragmatism.blogspot.com/ <br /> Posted by yree</DIV></p><p>The Chinese news agency gives the annual budget of the <span class="BTX">China National Space Administration.</span>at about $2 billion; this may not include military or commercial activity but does seem to cover the activities that NASA pays for in the US. &nbsp; </p><p>&nbsp;http://www.spacedaily.com/reports/Chinese_Annual_Space_Budget_Exceeds_Two_Billion_Dollars_999.html</p><p>But regardless of the budget, it seems absurd to continue to exlude China from the ISS program, particularly since the US plans to cut ISS to finance the VSE. China is only the third country to send humans into space, and has theworld's second largst economy. Moreover it advnces the primary political rationale for the ISS, its role as a catalyst for international trust and cooperation. </p><p>Regardless of his personal views, Mr. Griffin's rejection of Chinese participation is shortsighted and his behaviour toward his Chinese hosts during his last visit can only be regarded as bizarre and insulting.&nbsp; </p>

 

[JonClarke]

<p><BR/>Replying to:<BR/><DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>The Chinese news agency gives the annual budget of the China National Space Administration.at about $2 billion; this may not include military or commercial activity but does seem to cover the activities that NASA pays for in the US. &nbsp; &nbsp;http://www.spacedaily.com/reports/Chinese_Annual_Space_Budget_Exceeds_Two_Billion_Dollars_999.htmlBut regardless of the budget, it seems absurd to continue to exlude China from the ISS program, particularly since the US plans to cut ISS to finance the VSE. China is only the third country to send humans into space, and has theworld's second largst economy. Moreover it advnces the primary political rationale for the ISS, its role as a catalyst for international trust and cooperation. </DIV></p><p>I think this will be good too.&nbsp; The political issues will, I hope, change with new blood in Washington (regardless of who wins the election).&nbsp; Assuming the Chinese demonstrate three person operations and EVA technology this year and docking in 2010 any doubts about there technical competence will be removed.&nbsp; However I don't know whether Shenzhou can fly to the ISS.&nbsp; Previous missions have had orbital inclinations of 42 degrees, a long way from the ISS's 52 degrees.&nbsp; I just don't know is the Shenzhou system has the dV to reach the ISS.&nbsp; This may be biggest issue.</p><p>Replying to:<BR/><DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>Regardless of his personal views, Mr. Griffin's rejection of Chinese participation is shortsighted and his behaviour toward his Chinese hosts during his last visit can only be regarded as bizarre and insulting.&nbsp; <br />Posted by vulture4 </DIV></p><p>What did he do and say?</p><p>Jon<br /></p> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><em>Whether we become a multi-planet species with unlimited horizons, or are forever confined to Earth will be decided in the twenty-first century amid the vast plains, rugged canyons and lofty mountains of Mars</em>  Arthur Clarke</p> </div>

 

[MarkStanaway]

<p>Previous missions have had orbital inclinations of 42 degrees, a long way from the ISS's 52 degrees.&nbsp; I just don't know is the Shenzhou system has the dV to reach the ISS.&nbsp; This may be biggest issue.</p><p>I think a good indication that China is cranking up its manned space programme will come when we see some evidence of hectic construction activity at that proposed launch facility on Hainan island. At 20N and open ocean to the south east for staging and tracking this will give a considerable throw advantage for their new launchers which are rumoured to be in the pipeline. The present facilities at Jinguan do not seem to be sufficient to support a vigorous manned space programme. This may be part of the reason for the seemingly leisurely pace of the Chinese manned space programme to date. They have launched two manned missions in the five years from 2003 till now. In the equivalent period of development of the US programme 6 Mercury and 10 Gemini missions had been launched and the Russians had launched 6 Vostok and 2 Voskhod missions.&nbsp; &nbsp; </p> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>

 

[keermalec]

<p><BR/>Replying to:<BR/><DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>Previous missions have had orbital inclinations of 42 degrees, a long way from the ISS's 52 degrees.&nbsp; I just don't know is the Shenzhou system has the dV to reach the ISS.&nbsp; This may be biggest issue.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; <br />Posted by MarkStanaway</DIV><br /><br />I think you're right Mark. Orbital transfer from Shenzou's 196x324km orbit to the ISS at 407x407km only requires 0.105 km/s but the plane change... agh requires 1.21 km/s. The Shenzou is only designed for 0.38 km/s maneuverability so reaching the ISS&nbsp;seems to be&nbsp;an issue, unless the launcher is upgraded or launched from a new site at 51.6&deg;...</p><p>Actually I am not sure of this. The data on the Jiquan launch site says it can launch to inclinations between 40 and 56&deg; and I don't know what the mass penalty on the crew module will be at 51.6&deg;. Maybe if the orbital module is replaced with an extra set of propellant tanks, the crew module could reach the ISS.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><em>“An error does not become a mistake until you refuse to correct it.” John F. Kennedy</em></p> </div>

 

[keermalec]

<p><BR/>Replying to:<BR/><DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>it seems absurd to continue to exlude China from the ISS programPosted by vulture4</DIV><br /><br />I wasn't aware that China was excluded from the ISS. I was under the impression they did not want to participate. Are you sure of this information?</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><em>“An error does not become a mistake until you refuse to correct it.” John F. Kennedy</em></p> </div>