Chinese Space Lags U.S., Russia By 15 Years, Manager Says

[propforce]

An interesting article from this week's Av Wk.<br /><br /><blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr /><p>In Orbit <br /> <br />Chinese Space Lags U.S., Russia By 15 Years, Manager Says <br />Aviation Week & Space Technology <br />04/10/2006, page 15 <br />Edited by Frank Morring, Jr. <br />Printed headline: Space Race <br /> <br />China still lags 15 years behind the U.S. and Russia in space program developments, but could catch up in 10 years with enough funding from the government. Huang Chunping, who leads manned launcher programs, made the assessment to the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), a major Communist Party planning organization. The fact that his statements were aired publicly by the government-controlled Xinhua news agency may suggest a spending boost is at least under consideration. In Washington Luo Ge, one of two vice administrators in the China National Space Administration (CNSA), says his country presently spends about $500 million a year on space activities, a figure he admits is difficult to calculate. For that sum, Luo says, China gets about 200,000 full-time space workers, compared with the 75,000 public and contract workers NASA believes it keeps employed. Also appearing at the CPPCC and covered by Xinhua was Qi Faren, chief designer of China's first five Shenzhou spacecraft. He called for an overhaul of the way Chinese space programs are planned, saying China needs a unified organization to plan its manned space missions, satellites and lunar exploration as a whole. China's current space program activities are split, with the Shenzhou manned spacecraft and launch vehicle development and planning carried out by the People's Liberation Army, and science satellite development managed by the CNSA. Top CNSA managers have complained that they have little insight into many Shenzhou operations because of the military's tight control of the program.<p><hr /></p></p></blockquote> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>

 

[mlorrey]

Well, lessee: US landed on moon 37 years ago - 15 years means China landed on the moon 23 years ago! <img src="/images/icons/wink.gif" /><br /><br />Seriously though, I'd estimate that China is about where Russia was in 1968, so they're more like 38 years behind by one metric. By another metric, they've got a functioning manned space program that seems to be flying at least as often as ours, but behind Russia by a decade or more of experience and reliability.

 

[steampower]

then again if the NASA "return to the moon" plan gets whittled down much more then we will have to employ Chinese astronauts since they will be the only people small enough to get into the damn thing.<br /><br />steampower.

 

[astrowikizhang]

"Top CNSA managers have complained that they have little insight into many Shenzhou operations because of the military's tight control of the program."<br /><br />Yes, most people involved in Shenzhou project are from PLA. No need to pay wage, which be out of the defense budget, to those men and women in uniform. That is why Chinese can claim that Shenzhou 6 mission only cost 110 million USD.<br /><br />China has no agency like NASA of US. Space industry is 100% state-owned. Every cent of the money for R&D is waiting to be allocated by the government.<br /><br />I think the vast majorty of Chinese space budget is spent on Shenzhou project. That heavy constrains the resources available to other project aimed at scientific and commercial purposes.

 

[propforce]

<font color="yellow">I think the vast majorty of Chinese budget is spent on Shenzhou project. That heavy constrains the resources available to other project aimed at scientific and commercial purposes. </font><br /><br /><br /><br />I assume what you meant to say is that the <i>"...vast majorty of Chinese <font color="yellow">space</font>budget is spent on Shenzhou project..."</i>. Afterall, they still have the 2008 Olympic to impress the world. <img src="/images/icons/smile.gif" /> <br /><br />Our own development of the space program were started with the military as well. Though the Gemini, Mecury and Appollo programs were adminstered through NASA, but in fact it was an arms race with the Soviet Union, so one could in fact state those programs were done for the military purpose as well. <img src="/images/icons/wink.gif" /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>

 

[ace5]

<<Seriously though, I'd estimate that China is about where Russia was in 1968, so they're more like 38 years behind by one metric. By another metric, they've got a functioning manned space program that seems to be flying at least as often as ours, but behind Russia by a decade or more of experience and reliability.>><br /><br />No.<br />You must pay attention to the overall world situation as a whole; in 1968 we had a completely different level of international relationships, economical conditions and political situations that influennced the USSR and USA space efforts.<br /> You cant compare the real possibilities of China (or any countrie´s) by these standards. The Chinese may get some advantages of their contracts with other nations to get more present in space in a faster pace, or just avoiding steps. They are not sending unmanned vehicles of Shenzhou series anymore, unlike the Soviets, who keep sending unmanned Soyuz even after the manned vehicle had debuted (like the ASTP solo automatic flights before and between Soyuz 16 and 19), etc.

 

[trailrider]

"China still lags 15 years behind the U.S. and Russia in space program developments, but could catch up in 10 years with enough funding from the government."<br /><br />The thing to look at is not so much the lag today, but the rate at which China's manned space program is progressing. Don't forget, that China has had the benefit of bypassing some of the design problems and pitfalls that Russia went through, as well as learning what to look out for from just reading our news media coverage of our own trevails and triumphs!<br /><br />If we are not persistant in our pursuit of Project Constellation, we could wind up having our own astronauts request visas to land at the Lunar South Pole (or whereever the Chinese decide to land and claim first "dibs" on whatever might be there)!<br /><br />As was pointed out in others' posts, you can't really tell HOW much is being spent on the Chinese manned space program, because much is hidden within military spending, which they keep classified!<br /><br />Let's hope WE can KEEP ahead of that 15 year curve, at least by a few years when the progress of our respective programs converge.<br /><br />Ad Luna! Ad Ares! Ad Astra!

 

[astrowikizhang]

"I assume what you meant to say is that the "...vast majorty of Chinese space budget is spent on Shenzhou project..."."<br /><br />Yes.<br /><br />"Our own development of the space program were started with the military as well. "<br /><br />All space programs has the origin of a Nazi secret weapon in WWII. First Chinese satellite was launched in 1970, on a launch vehicle developed from a ballistic missile. It is not the beginning of the Chinese space program. Chinese have been working on it for 40 years. The country and the world has dramatically changed in this period of time. But the Chinese sapce agency and industry want no changes. That is why they have to take the risk of sending man to space on a rocket using hypergolic propellant. <br /><br />NASA release huge amount of information about what it is working or going to work on. While Chinese space agency still runs in the hand of millitary. Technical info keeps secret. Russian assistant is ignored. They even won't clearly release the budget spent on the most important space program of the country running for a decade.<br />

 

[astrowikizhang]

“If we are not persistant in our pursuit of Project Constellation, we could wind up having our own astronauts request visas to land at the Lunar South Pole (or whereever the Chinese decide to land and claim first "dibs" on whatever might be there)! ”<br /><br />Quite unlikely Chinese will land a man on moon. The public has no interest in the moon race between China and US and worry about that could ruin the country's economy. The development of the country is facing its bottle neck because running shot of natural resources. The budget available for space program is still limited. The government did spend 37.5 billion USD every year just on cars for the officials, while spent 500 million USD on space program as mentioned.

 

[shoogerbrugge]

<blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr /><p>The government did spend 37.5 billion USD every year just to buy cars for the officials, while spent 500 million USD on space program as mentioned<p><hr /></p></p></blockquote><br /><br />They do drive nice all black Audi's though. So its no wonder that they spend so much money on them. <br /><br />On a more serious note, what are the chances of the Hainan Island cosmodrome will actually become reality. Weren't there some logistical issues to overcome, not too mention the local minority having problems with big rockets in their backyards?<br /><br />The rate of Chinese space development is steady but slow. I don't believe they are interested or even consider themselves in a spacerace with anybody else. Its about development of technology and national pride/propaganda. Which by itself makes sure that the whole programme collapses after the finish of the race has been reached, such as after Apollo.

 

[astrowikizhang]

"They do drive nice all black Audi's though. So its no wonder that they spend so much money on them. "<br /><br />There are about 3.5 million official cars, many of which are big and expensive ones like Audi A6.<br /><br />"Weren't there some logistical issues to overcome, not too mention the local minority having problems with big rockets in their backyards? "<br /><br />There will be some problem to transport huge rocket stages by ship from Beijin and Shanghai to the island. And airlift cargo seems imporssible because China has no aircraft that big.<br /><br />How the local residents would feel won't be the problem. If you remember the Three Gorges Dam: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Three_Gorges_Dam, where 0.35 million residents had to leave the land that they had lived on for generations, without any complains. <br /><br />"Its about development of technology and national pride/propaganda."<br /><br />I agree. Many people believe the success of Shenzhou means that Chinese ICBM could easily penetrate US NMD and strike with... But I downplay the technical achievement because those institutions and factories involved are 100% state-owned and mostly millitary oriented. They are working on all-millitary projects and contribte little to the economy and people's everyday life. People fly on jet liners everyday, but they don't fire ICBM usually. And China has to pay billions of USD for Boeing and Airbus aircrafts every year.<br /><br />"Which by itself makes sure that the whole programme collapses after the finish of the race has been reached, such as after Apollo.'<br /><br />Chinese program doesn't need support from public. It actually went on for 7 years before known by the public. The survival of the project is based on the will of the leaders, who want to tell the world that Chinese are not just good at making toys and T-shirts.<br />

 

[john_316]

You bring up an interesting idea!!!<br /><br /><br />If an island nation near the equator that earns billions of dollars in vacation revenue would build their own rockets and set up a launch site; they too can have space tourism and a space capability. <br /><br />The Bahama's or even Singapore could have a space port and still make $$$$. <br /><br /><br /><img src="/images/icons/frown.gif" />

 

[skyone]

<blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr /><p>If an island nation near the equator that earns billions of dollars in vacation revenue would build their own rockets and set up a launch site; they too can have space tourism and a space capability. <p><hr /></p></p></blockquote><br /><br />How about Taiwan? They seem to be something of a technological powerhouse, rolling in billions and billions of dollars.

 

[propforce]

<blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr /><p>How about Taiwan? <p><hr /></p></p></blockquote><br /><br />If Taiwan is allowed to build a launch pad, that would be China's equivalent of the Cuba crisis !! <img src="/images/icons/smile.gif" /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>

 

[gunsandrockets]

"Seriously though, I'd estimate that China is about where Russia was in 1968, so they're more like 38 years behind by one metric."<br /><br />China today is both behind and ahead of where the Soviet Union was in 1968.<br /><br />In 1968 the Soviet Soyuz manned spacecraft was still buggy. In 2006 the Chinese Shenzou seems like a more refined spacecraft (benefiting from advanced technology and hindsight).<br /><br />In 1968 the Soviets had in service the 20+ tonne payload Proton launch vehicle, though it was still buggy. Today the largest Chinese launch vehicle is the Soyuz class 'Long March', with a payload of only about 8 tonnes to LEO.<br /><br />In 1968 the Soviets had not developed an advanced high-performance cryogenic upper-stage, such as the American Centaur or S-IVb, an oversight which crippled them in the moon race. Today China has a successful cryogenic high-ISP upper-stage in service.<br /><br />By 1968 the Soviets had conducted EVA and EOR, neither of which China has yet achieved.

 

[gunsandrockets]

"How about Taiwan [space capability]? They seem to be something of a technological powerhouse, rolling in billions and billions of dollars."<br /><br />I think it would be hilarious if Taiwan paid the 100 million the Russians are asking for a lunar-flyby tourist flight. Imagine how China would fume over that!

 

[astrowikizhang]

"If an island nation near the equator that earns billions of dollars in vacation revenue would build their own rockets and set up a launch site; they too can have space tourism and a space capability."<br /><br />There are already more-than-enough launch powers in the commercial launch market for now: ESA, US, Russia. It is too hard for any new-comer to make money from it.<br /><br />China managed to enter the market in 1990s, but was striken by serious accidents. Insurance fee for futhur launches became quite high. And they had to get contracts from US companies. This cooperation broken up when Sino-US relationship saw winter in 1999.