CME in the making?

[michaelmozina]

Today's STEREO 195A-Behind images show an unusual active region that seems to be emitting darker plasma toward the top spin axis (top of sun) in a way that I've seen produce "explosive" events. I'm betting this area is about to erupt into a CME type of event with plasma directed in the general direction of the moving darker regions seen in the image below. Again, you'll see a darker band of plasma moving up and away from the active region that is centered in the image.

http://stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov/brows ... 95_512.mpg

 

[michaelmozina]

If you watch the image closely, you'll observe two darker regions (presumably cooler plasma) rising up toward the top spin axis of the sun in slightly different directions. These dark regions begin to form around 13:36. There appear to be two of them with about 10 degrees of separation and they are picking up momentum as they move upward.

 

[michaelmozina]

The trigger.

My "prediction" is that when these dark regions rise into the corona and are heated by the corona, there will be a sizeable eruption (actually two of them because there are two distinct dark regions). We should see this occur in Lasco-C3 images near the limb within 24 hours, probably starting within a few (like 3-6) hours.

 

[michaelmozina]

http://stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov/brows ... r2_512.mpg

STEREO COR-2-Ahead images seem to have the best (side) angle of the pulse that becomes more visible around 16:52. It will be interesting to see what SOHO-LASCO observes from this event because the event is not located or aimed directly at/from the limb, but rather it is somewhat in from the limb in the LASCO images. It does not look to be a "huge" type of event from the STEREO COR images, but there should be something visible in the SOHO - Lasco images over the next few hours.

 

[michaelmozina]

It event appears to have piqued at 14:26 in the STEREO and SOHO 195A images. There doesn't seem to be a whole lot of action to be seen from the event in the COR or LASCO-C2 images. A plasma "pulse" can be seen in the COR2-ahead images as well as the LASCO-C2 images, but it does not appear to be particularly "explosive" as far as I can tell.

 

[michaelmozina]

Post Mortem Results

It was not altogether obvious to me from the original LASCO-C2 images exactly what transpired as a result of the flareup seen in 195A yesterday. The "running difference" images from the archives today however show a definite effect of the flareup that first be seen in the 14:50 image. There was definitely some amount of mass that was ejected from the event, but it seemed to be somewhat less dramatic than I originally predicted and "hoped". I'd say it was a relatively accurate prediction as it relates to timing and location, but in terms of the actual size of the event it was less accurate.