Question Does anyone think we SpaceX (Elon Musk) can land the first people on mars by 2024?

[Slarty1080]

two things come to mind when considering a manned landing on Mars 1) the distance 2) the atmosphere. the distance part can probably be worked out since astronauts are now spending months on the ISS, still though if there were a problem they could return to Earth quickly since the ISS is in relatively low orbit- Mars on the other hand is 6-9 months away. Although physics is not one of my strong points , I would think having to go though Mar's atmosphere would be alot more difficult than landing on the Moon with no atmosphere to contend with.

One thing comes to my mind concerning a crewed Mars landing, the vast quantity of propellants required. Roughly 90% of the lift off mass is propellant and perhaps less than 5% is actual payload. And most of that "payload" is in fact more propellent for launching the ship from Low Earth Orbit to Mars. So in one way the atmosphere of Mars is actually quite handy in that you don't need to bring yet more propellant to land on Mars. Not to say it will be easy it won't, but it is just about manageable. On the Moon this is not possible so even more propellant has to be used to land.

Will humans be walking on Mars by 2024? IMO no its too soon and there's too much still to do. Perhaps only a very slim outside chance of a robotic Starship landing in 2024 followed by a crew in 2026. Much more likely would be a crew landing on Mars in the 2028 - 2033 time frame. I find people tend to overestimate what can be achieved in a year but under estimate what can be achieved in a decade.

 

[serhiy1635]

I support more uncrewed missions like the Perseverance rover mission or Chinese mission Zhurong Mars rover
I`d like to mention ‘Rosalind Franklin’ mission. This mission will attempt to search for life on Mars. The launch is scheduled for 2022. Interesting fact, that this is the first Mars mission by British aerospace companies. Looking forward to this mission and I hope it will open some new things for us. https://www.skyrora.com/blog/uk-space-news

 

[sukkujotru]

Can we reach on mars with the help of drones?

 

[Dale Holley]

The feasible, options would be to wait, first and foremost we should establish a outpost on the moon first. The probable, outcome is no?
The ability to get there, sustainable, or survive there
and finding adaquite shelters. Let alone, the need
For food, water recycling, and other things.
The biggest,would be the proper launch, window
for alignment to the planet, and radiation (cosmic)
And or Meteor showered spacecraft.
By establishment on the moon, we could have a stepping stone,to establish abilities, and protocol
for Mars, what works and not works, weed out the bugs, so to speak? Anyway, I'm no rocket scientist
But my thoughts!!!

 

[johnz]

We develop antigravity propulsion (fission-annihilation propulsion - 30cm small ball have thrust 100 tons multiple years) which is 10-1000 times cheaper than a chemical rocket, and with this propulsion can be on Mars in one day (on 0G antigravity pillow), or in few days (with 1G acceleration). With this technology can be humans on Mars by the 2024 year.

 

[Catastrophe]

"With this technology can be humans on Mars by the 2024 year." My emphasis.

IF we "develop antigravity propulsion . . . by then. Is that what you mean?
How long will the journey take?

When you state "humans on Mars", have you taken into account all effects, including physiological and practical, of acceleration and deceleration? My emphasis.

Cat

 

[iconoclast]

The SpaceX Team wants the first humans to land by 2024. That's only 3 years of tech further! We could do it if we start right now maybe. I am not that tech legend that knows when you do things and not.


SpaceX Website is where you find info. As i said in the title, SpaceX is owned by Elon Musk, the owner of Tesla.

Do you think it'll arrive as they think it's going?

Humans on Mars in 2024? The FAA says no for 2024. Reality says no living humans arrive anytime.

 

[Orion]

Does anyone think we SpaceX (Elon Musk) can land the first people on Mars by 2024? (My emphasis).

Not I.

Cat

I do. Elon Musk and SpaceX are a force to be reckoned with.

 

[TacovilleMC]

Humans on Mars in 2024? The FAA says no for 2024. Reality says no living humans arrive anytime.

While it is extremely unlikely that SpaceX will be able to land humans on Mars by 2024, it seems to me that, barring a major societal degradation/collapse, it is inevitable that humans will one day reach mars. We've already sent SUV-sized robots there!

 

[iconoclast]

The SpaceX Team wants the first humans to land by 2024. That's only 3 years of tech further! We could do it if we start right now maybe. I am not that tech legend that knows when you do things and not.


SpaceX Website is where you find info. As i said in the title, SpaceX is owned by Elon Musk, the owner of Tesla.

Do you think it'll arrive as they think it's going?

The closest elon will get to his dream will be landing a handful of dead bodies in about 2030 or so. Perhaps some soon-to-dead chumps if he is really lucky.

 

[iconoclast]

I do. Elon Musk and SpaceX are a force to be reckoned with.

elon is a lunatic, newly dangerous.

 

[Orion]

Exactly.

 

[johnz]

"With this technology can be humans on Mars by the 2024 year." My emphasis.

IF we "develop antigravity propulsion . . . by then. Is that what you mean?
How long will the journey take?

When you state "humans on Mars", have you taken into account all effects, including physiological and practical, of acceleration and deceleration? My emphasis.

Cat

With acceleration and deceleration 1G (the same as gravity on Earth) takes to travel a few days. On zero gravity pillow 0G can be on Mrs in 1 day (0G pillow has about 3m ball shape between positive and negative G).
How quickly will antigravity propulsion, will depend on funding.

 

[Catastrophe]

"How quickly will antigravity propulsion, will depend on funding."

As well, of course, assuming that it is not some utterly impossible, science fiction scenario.
NASA just made some comment about 2024 being totally out of the question (by any means).


Cat

 

[johnz]

"How quickly will antigravity propulsion, will depend on funding."

As well, of course, assuming that it is not some utterly impossible, science fiction scenario.
NASA just made some comment about 2024 being totally out of the question (by any means).


Cat

It is not a sci-fi project like Tokamak (ITER), this technology is verified, and similar to use for traveling at lightspeed by every advanced civilization in the galaxy. Without funding take about 5 years for proof of concept, with $20million can have in 5years can have serial production.

 

[TacovilleMC]

It is not a sci-fi project like Tokamak (ITER), this technology is verified, and similar to use for traveling at lightspeed by every advanced civilization in the galaxy. Without funding take about 5 years for proof of concept, with $20million can have in 5years can have serial production.

While I'm not saying it's impossible, I would heavily doubt those numbers, as they don't really have any progress on the technology so far, and it is entirely speculative.

 

[Catastrophe]

johnz, you state:

"this technology is verified, and similar to use for traveling at lightspeed by every advanced civilization in the galaxy." My emphasis.

Please quote references to show the veracity of your statement. In particular, in what language these aliens communicate. Do they all speak English?

Cat

 

[lanzu]

i dont think so,because the technology of the spaceship is not matured at all.We 're still pretty far from Mars.The current understanding of Mars is incomplete and there is still much more to explore.There are many unknown things waiting to be discovered on Mars.

 

[Catastrophe]

There once may have been life on Mars. Maybe only microbiological. Probably not more advanced. Mars had its 'opportunity' of developing life much earlier than Earth. We do not yet know the result. It still leaves the possibility of extra terrestrial life the greatest open question for science at present.

Cat

 

[johnz]

While I'm not saying it's impossible, I would heavily doubt those numbers, as they don't really have any progress on the technology so far, and it is entirely speculative.

Because it is not in technologies, but in money which you ready spend. We have a thousand times better technology (100 tons thrust, on years), and 10 times cheaper than chemical rockets, but it is still in many millions.

 

[DMH]

If Musk sends people to the Moon in one of his designs and that design fails, Elon Musk will be ruined for life.

Better let NASA deal with the important Moon landings.

 

[TacovilleMC]

If Musk sends people to the Moon in one of his designs and that design fails, Elon Musk will be ruined for life.

Better let NASA deal with the important Moon landings.

While I dislike Elon for many reasons, one of the big things I do appreciate about him is that he is the current big driving force behind space exploration, and I think it is important he continues to do that for the time being.

 

[Catastrophe]

Does anyone think we SpaceX (Elon Musk) can land the first people on mars by 2024?

This was the question.

Bearing in mind it takes 4 years to get a probe in orbit around an asteroid (16 Psyche), I think 2 years to get people on Mars is optimistic (as in totally and utterly impossible).

Cat

 

[Helio]

IMO, a Mars landing and return may require staging, either on the Moon or from Phobos. 2024 is likely far too ambitious.

 

[Catastrophe]

Helio, I agree. I think 200 years is nearer than 20.

Cat