First SpaceX Launch Countdown

[barrykirk]

Just creating this post so people can comment on the first falcon 1 as it gets close to launch time.<br /><br />Last I heard, the launch date is Monday October 31.<br /><br />Is that date still in the cards?

 

[tap_sa]

Nope. Somewhere in the middle of November says the newest card. Then again, there have been <i>many</i> cards already. IIRC if they miss this one in Kwajalein there's some other business there that postpones next opportunity to next year.

 

[comga]

From the www.spacex.com update page at http://www.spacex.com/index.html?section=updates&content=http%3A//www.spacex.com/updates.php<br /><br />[October 25, 2005: The target launch date for the Falcon I maiden flight is now late November to early December from our island launch complex in the Kwajalein Atoll. All systems will be ready for flight by the end of this week with the exception of Merlin qualification, which we are extending by four weeks for added surety.<br /><br />At least they have an image. The description says that it is the new Falcon I on Omelek Island. It was taken at night, so we have to take their word for it. It is remarkable in that it is the first posted image of thier hardware since the May engine test at Vandenberg.<br /><br />Does anyone have details of the mission at Kwajalein that limits the SpaceX launch window?

 

[mikejz]

I appears that the only issue holding up the launch is that they feel that further testing is needed on the Merlin engine (That thing seems to be giving them SO many problems)--I wonder if it would of been cheaper to buy the rights to an exisiting engine.<br /><br />Anyways, It looks like they will be streaming it online, so that's a good thing. <br /><br />The pad looks SO simple, it almost looks like its a V-2 launch.

 

[erauskydiver]

These guys are so busy... I wonder how many of them have a private life.

 

[spacefire]

sure they're busy, they don't work for the government <img src="/images/icons/wink.gif" /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p>http://asteroid-invasion.blogspot.com</p><p>http://www.solvengineer.com/asteroid-invasion.html </p><p> </p> </div>

 

[erauskydiver]

Well yeah, but I wonder how much of a balanced life they have. (i.e. do they work for their families too?)

 

[n_kitson]

In the past I've been very bullish on SpaceX, but I'm starting to get doubtful now. There constant delays, complemented by announcements for ever bigger paper rockets is not going to reassure future investors in the space industry.<br /><br />They're managing to continue down the same path that we have seen from every major space contractor until now, namely that forecast timelines are obscenely optimistic.

 

[propforce]

<i>"....In the past I've been very bullish on SpaceX, but I'm starting to get doubtful now. There constant delays, complemented by announcements for ever bigger paper rockets is not going to reassure future investors in the space industry. ...."</i><br /><br />Things get complicated when it gets down to launching a REAL rocket.<br /><br />It's time to step up from amateur rocketry to the real thing. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>

 

[mikejz]

Umm, Am I the only one who finds it intresting that they had 'delay' issues after the staff arrived at a tropical paradise? <br /><br />It I worked for them, I bet I could stay, "You known, I think they should run more tests back in the states....I'll just wait here for ya guys"

 

[spacefire]

they're making history. I sure hope their families understand that. Although it would be interesting to know the divorce rate in that company. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p>http://asteroid-invasion.blogspot.com</p><p>http://www.solvengineer.com/asteroid-invasion.html </p><p> </p> </div>

 

[erauskydiver]

With the way they are currently conducting business, does anybody know if they have to be AS9100 compliant, and if they even are AS9100 compliant?

 

[radarredux]

> <i><font color="yellow">Well yeah, but I wonder how much of a balanced life they have. (i.e. do they work for their families too?)</font>/i><br /><br />I knew a guy working for Lockheed in 1987, and they had a saying then: "<i>If you aren't working for Lockheed, you are working too hard.</i>"<br /><br />This was opposed to the saying frequently associated with Silicon Valley companies: "<i>We're very flexible on hours; work any 80 hours per week that you want.</i>"<br /><br />The difference is that Lockheed was doing work for the government, so every hour had to be logged so that it could be billed to the government. After 40 hours, you were done for the week.</i>

 

[spacester]

Welcome to sdc, Comga!<br /><br />OK what the heck, I'm going to go out on a limb and make a prediction. I've said this before but not so overtly.<br /><br />I predict that SpaceX will NEVER have a catastophic launch failure. Maybe a few performance anomolies, but no big spectacular explosions.<br /><br />No doubt the professionals here will laugh at me, because "spaceflight is hard". I do not dispute that it is hard, but I believe that SpaceX knows what they're doing, and with their emphasis on reliability, they are going to be very successful. <br /><br />It's hard but it can be done. I see a launch delay, for the first launch at least, as a good thing (up to a point). As said, it is critical that the first launch go perfectly so if they want to take more time to get it right, I see that as taking care of business and not falling victim to launch fever.<br /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>

 

[tap_sa]

I wonder if at least one of the reason for these delays is that Elon & co are trying to make Merlin v1.0 too good, meaning they aim for too many reliability 9ers in a row, at least for v1.0. IIRC the engine has performed well on nominal tests, but the qualification tests includes running it with some out-of-this-world parameters like crazy mixture ratios, wrong pressures, 'bombing' it etc. Some of these tests have resulted failures like ablative burnthroughs. Sometimes aiming for too high quality and robustness can be counterproductive.

 

[mikejz]

Well I would disagree, the people who were working on this clearly know what they are doing. I would take there word for it that they feel that this level of testing is needed to give the level of success they feel approprate. <br /><br />Also, given that they intend to use the Merlin as the center of all of its boosters, they clearly want to make sure they are successful.<br /><br />That said, I do feel that it might of been a better idea to just do a test launch of one vs. the cost of the delays; Or test fly with 1st stage with a dummy 2nd stage ala. the early days of rocket testing.

 

[barrykirk]

Your right. I'd rather wait for a succesful launch than get an immediate diasaster.<br /><br />I've done a number of factory startups in my life, since i've spent most of my career doing industrial controls.<br /><br />Startup delays are common, but they are mostly forgotten if the factory line works perfectly once it's online and operational.<br /><br />They need to make sure it's perfect, before they press the launch button.<br /><br />Let's see where they are after the launch.

 

[barrykirk]

As I noted, I've done a few factory startups. Some of them were in awefully nice locals. However, I've never had the time during one of those startups to really do any site seeing.<br /><br />I spent 3 weeks in Las Vegas doing a startup, 80 to 90 hours / week and never saw the inside of a casino once.

 

[n_kitson]

I two would rather see a slight delay than a launch failure. However, they are now more than two years behind forecast schedule, and again delays are surfacing. My concern is that they have hopelessly underestimated what it takes to get a Falcon 1 flying. What if they have not underestimated only the timeframe, but the cost as well? Additional testing costs money. If they're making modifications to the rocket design during this time, well, that's a lot of incremental development cost that needs to be recovered.<br /><br />At the same time, while the launch schedule keeps slipping for Falcon 1, they are announcing ever more ambitious launch vehicles with far tighter forecast timelines than Falcon 1 ever had.<br /><br />I do hope I am wrong, and that they can deliver on their initial promises of reliability and cost.

 

[mikejz]

I think the key unknown question is the reason for the delays. Several (like the Titan IV launch) do not really represent issueing in development, just bad luck. <br /><br />At the same time they seem to be selling these paper rockets, which to me means two things: 1) Who ever is buying is liking what they see 2) The delays involve only a small part of the company, and the rest of the staff has worked on other projects while those issues are addressed. <br /><br />I am willing to bet that most problems are with the Merlin Engine. Musk seems to be focuing on using it in all his boosters, which I am taking to say that he feels that he needs to make up his investment and/or does not feel optimistic about developing another engine.

 

[barrykirk]

They have two engine designs right now.<br /><br />The Merlin and the Kestrel.<br /><br />The Merlin is by far the more complicated and higher performance of the two. The Kestrel is used in the Falcon 1 upper stage.<br /><br />There is nothing wrong with starting with a decent engine design and then incrementally improving it each generation.<br /><br />Getting the baseline working is the tricky part.

 

[mikejz]

The Kestrel appeared to be much easier for SpaceX (pressure fed and all)<br /><br />The Merlin seemed to be the real pain. Given that SpaceX had talked prior about the Merlin 1b and Merlin 2. The Falcon V's original design had it with uprated Merlins with 100,000 Lbs. thrust, they have decided not to persue these upgrades for the time beings from what I can tell.

 

[erauskydiver]

I dont doubt their engineering know-how. However, what I question is how realisitic their personnel and administrative forecasts are.

 

[spacefire]

...or their predictions of the malevolence on the part of .Boeing and Lockheed <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p>http://asteroid-invasion.blogspot.com</p><p>http://www.solvengineer.com/asteroid-invasion.html </p><p> </p> </div>

 

[mikejz]

No, I think they knew exactly what they were getting into in that regard.<br /><br />Remember, they hired away a lot of Lockmart and Boeing people.