How to calculate the odds that an alien spaceship has been spotted

[Admin]

The US military has released previously classified photos and films related to unidentified flying object (UFO) sightings, which mostly show something blurry moving strangely.

How to calculate the odds that an alien spaceship has been spotted : Read more

 

[sam85geo]

I can't help wondering what Bayes would think of this method. Some really hard UFO evidence like a body or hardware is needed; otherwise it's speculation. Anyway and interesting approach indeed.

 

[Helio]

IMO, the no. 1 factor that has been ignored is the variable known as FUNN (Flying Unidentifiable Near Nothings - and, yes of course, I just made this up! ).

When I was a teenager, my neighbor loved to make and launch something into the night sky that produced something fun to see. [I won't share what it was due to safety concerns.] This was in the early 60s, when UFOs were exciting topics. We liked to listen to our AM radio to have music in the background. When the DJ came on and reported that a UFO had been sighted on our side of town, and just minutes after our launch, it more than doubled our sense of fun in FUNN. [Of course, I went home immediately thereafter. ]

What is the adjusted Bayesian result when FUNN is factored?