Is a Manned Mission to Mars worth Risk and Cost?

[vonster]

Moving mankind into the next stage of evolution, means moving into space and living there for extended periods of time.<br /><br />IMO if we dont do that we risk stagnation socially, economically, technologically, psycologically ... <br /><br />In every area of human life we will risk moving backwards in the next 50 years if we dont get it together to take this step. <br /><br />I would go further to say that -- possibly - the difference between 'doing our selves in' - and - avoiding the many potential doomsday scenarios (environmmental castastrophe, lethal genetic weapons spreading, thermonuclear war, self-aware AI etc) hinges on whether we make it happen or not.<br /><br />IF we go and make it stick - whether permenant space stations, moon bases, mars bases -- I believe we are boosting our chances of survival exponentially. IF we dont we are doing opposite.<br /><br />The average person doesnt think in these terms and only thinks of the short term obstacles and easy to rationalize immediate concrete benefits: about most of which they are just flat out ill-informed about in the first place (ie the old "solving problems here VS space")<br /><br />Its not an either or proposition, unless one means by this "either we start conquering space for humans, OR we are screwed". Because this is what I think.<br /><br />Mars is an obvious and inevitable goal -- after conquering LEO and long term moon bases. However I do think there is one area that people tend to overlook and this is where you can much more easily justify -- both to the "space aware" and the general public:<br /><br />The asteroids. Commercial asteroid mining.<br /><br />In terms of risk / reward calculations the asteroids win over Mars at this point and probably the moon. Working toward an asteroid mining economy is probably less risky technologically, would show immediate material rewards, and would help us develop and perfect the technologies to profit from human space exploration <br /><br />As a c

 

[gawin]

I think that to before we head to Mars that we need to develop an engine that can deliver .38G (Mars Gravity) continuously through out the flight to Mars and as close to 1G on the return trip.<br /><br />Here is the reasons. If you flew 50% of the trip their at a steady acceleration of .38G then decelerated for the 2nd half of it at the same .38G you would be acclimated to Mars G upon arrival. This would eliminate the possibilities of fainting going from 0G to Mars G.<br /><br />Then on the return trip you speed things up. Making the trip take less time and re acclimating the astronauts to earth G.

 

[qso1]

JonClarke:<br />And that is the level technology...<br /><br />Me:<br />Thats right, we worked with the tech we had. Just as now we cannot wait for the more practical tech because thats not going to be developed if the more immediate steps are not taken.<br /><br />And I agree we should go to mars at the earliest possible time. Its Vulture2 who thought we should wait for more practical technology. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><strong>My borrowed quote for the time being:</strong></p><p><em>There are three kinds of people in life. Those who make it happen, those who watch it happen...and those who do not know what happened.</em></p> </div>

 

[qso1]

In a general sense I agree that we went to Antarctica the way you described. Flags first, fifty years later a base. The difference in Apollo and VSE however is that Apollo was probably in actuallity, well ahead of its time. We didn't have a lot of the tech at the start of Apollo which resulted in some of it being invented as they went along.<br /><br />Just today, an article was posted showing the Orion capsule with something akin to a glass cockpit...which I expected. Despite Apollo being ahead of its time in some ways, the Apollo CM and LM used older cockpit dial n switch tech.<br /><br />Going along the lines of what your saying, hopefully, the VSE program will be our second wave in going to the moon. As for Mars, the technology established by the new lunar missions should be able to cut the time for getting missions to mars underway. If we so desired as a society, mars is within reach IMO, within 20 to 25 years thanks to much of the emerging VSE technology. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><strong>My borrowed quote for the time being:</strong></p><p><em>There are three kinds of people in life. Those who make it happen, those who watch it happen...and those who do not know what happened.</em></p> </div>

 

[JonClarke]

The early expeditions to the Antarctic were a mix. Some, like Amundsen's were pure flags and footprints and contributed little to our knowledge of the continent. Others, like those of Shacketon, Scott, and Mawson were carrefully planned scientific expeditions.<br /><br />The range of research is impressive, comprehensive physical science programs into the topics as a diverse as the aurora, geomagetism, geology, oceanography, glaciology, meteorology, biology, and catography. They also evaluated different designs for sleds, tents, and cold weather, investigated new technology such as radio, aviation and motor transport. Human factors were not forgotten either, with research into of polar medicine including physiology, morale, diet,and the avoidance and treatment of hypothermia, frostbite, and snow blindness.<br /><br />The Antarctic really was the outer space of the late 19th and early 20th century.<br /><br />Jon <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><em>Whether we become a multi-planet species with unlimited horizons, or are forever confined to Earth will be decided in the twenty-first century amid the vast plains, rugged canyons and lofty mountains of Mars</em>  Arthur Clarke</p> </div>

 

[qso1]

JonClarke:<br />The Antarctic really was the outer space of the late 19th and early 20th century.<br /><br />Me:<br />Its also so remote and barren, that its almost like living on the moon or mars. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><strong>My borrowed quote for the time being:</strong></p><p><em>There are three kinds of people in life. Those who make it happen, those who watch it happen...and those who do not know what happened.</em></p> </div>

 

[oscar1]

I was actually thinking along the lines of entities like Siemens of Germany, Bombardier of Canada, Saab-Scania of Sweden, just to name a few. Denel of South Africa manufactured an attack helipcoter equal to the Apache for a quarter of the price, called the 'Rooivalk', until the US used the 'apartheid base' of the project to kill it via the political route. Entities like the afore mentioned could set up a consortium and even issue participation bonds ad hoc. If we realise that we went to the moon when the computer technology used then didn't even reach the level of my current pocket calculator, I foresee our great grandchildren asking eachother "why didn't they get off their butts?".

 

[JonClarke]

One of the many reasons why I am in favour of as wide an international partcipation in a Mars mission is precisely for that reason. There are many companies round the world, sometimes in unlikely countries that have unique skills or resources that can contribute to the success of the mission.<br /><br />Jon <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><em>Whether we become a multi-planet species with unlimited horizons, or are forever confined to Earth will be decided in the twenty-first century amid the vast plains, rugged canyons and lofty mountains of Mars</em>  Arthur Clarke</p> </div>

 

[ldyaidan]

It's the initial journeys, in dog-sleds, as it were, that will open the door for the later tech developments. The reason the new tech was developed was because they had a need for it. Until the "dog-sleds" open that door, there's no reason to spend the time and money to make it better. <br /><br /><br />Rae

 

[JonClarke]

I agree completely.<br /><br />People often forget that Antartic exploration went in phases. Much like space exploration.<br /><br />Before the 19th century there were only occasional forays into the sub Antarctic, for example by Maori voyagers and Cook. The technology could not really sustain much more.<br /><br />In the early 19th century increasing numbers of sealers and whaleers from many nations began visiting the subantartcic and Antarctic islands, sometimes wintering over. There were naval expeditions from Britain and Russia to the Antarctic peninsula. There are a number of claims to sighting the Antartcic mainland in this period.<br /><br />The Ross expedition of 1839-43 was the first large scientific expedition to the Antarctic mainland. It was aremarkable achievement. Antartcica was then left to the sealers and whalers until the mid 90's.<br /><br />From 1895 to 1914 were were a great many expeditions exploring the coastal angles and into the interior, some reaching the pole. In all 16 expeditions from 9 countries. These expeditions used the technical innovations (especially in ship design) from commerical operations and developed during Arctic exploration in the preceeding decades, including dogs, improved sledges, tents, cold weather gear and skis and dogs.<br /><br />Between WWI and II there were more expeditions, including the first US expeditions, and the first successful use of aircraft by Wilkins, Byrd, and the Germans. Whaling operations became more intensive but sealing largely disappeared because of the near extinction of the target species.<br /><br />After WWII there a number of very large US military expeditions (for example High Jump) and increased interest by a dozen other countries. This culminated in the internation geophysical year of 1957-58, the establishment of permanent stations and the signing of the Antarctic treaty in 1959.<br /><br />Jon<br /><br />. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><em>Whether we become a multi-planet species with unlimited horizons, or are forever confined to Earth will be decided in the twenty-first century amid the vast plains, rugged canyons and lofty mountains of Mars</em>  Arthur Clarke</p> </div>

 

[oscar1]

It is ironic actually that between WWI and II German scientists found proof of Einstein's theory during a Nazi Himalaya expedition, while at the same time the Nazis only allowed Heisenberg to teach relativity on condition he would never mention Einstein's name. Why I mention this is that "Risk and Cost" is but one thing, for we also have politics, religion and dogmas to deal with, before one of us sets foot on Mars.

 

[alokmohan]

Nazi Himalaya expedition?Please elaborate.It is a serious matter.

 

[oscar1]

Here is something about that expedition:<br /><br />http://www.channel4.com/history/microsites/H/history/n-s/nazimyths.html<br /><br />I'll try and remember where I read indepth about this expedition and Einstein; when I do I'll let you know.<br /><br /><br /><br />

 

[alokmohan]

Eager to know.

 

[docm]

Some reading on the topic;<br /><br /><b>Himmler's Crusade: The Nazi Expedition to Find the Origins of the Aryan Race</b><br /><br />http://www.amazon.com/Himmlers-Crusade-Expedition-Origins-Aryan/dp/0471262927 <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>

 

[alokmohan]

Why would the leader of the Nazi’s dreaded SS, the second-most-powerful man in the Third Reich, send a zoologist, an anthropologist, and several other scientists to Tibet on the eve of war? Himmler’s Crusade tells the bizarre and chilling story one of history’s most perverse, eccentric, and frightening scientific expeditions. Drawing on private journals, new interviews, and original research in German archives as well as in Tibet, author Christopher Hale recreates the events of this sinister expedition, asks penetrating questions about the relationship between science and politics, a nd sheds new light on the occult theories that obsessed Himmler and his fellow Nazis. <br /><br />Combining the highest standards of narrative history with the high adventure and exotic locales of Raiders of the Lost Ark, Himmler’s Crusade reveals that Himmler had ordered these men to examine Tibetan nobles for signs of Aryan physiology, undermine the British relationship with the ruling class, and sow the seeds of rebellion among the populace. Most strangely, the scientists–all SS officers–were to find scientific proof of a grotesque historical fantasy that was at the center of Himmler’s beliefs about race. <br /><br />Set against the exquisite backdrop of the majestic Himalayas, this fast-paced and engaging narrative provides new and troubling insight into one of the strangest episodes in the history of science, politics, and war. <br /><br />Book Info<br />Text tells the story of one of history's most perverse, eccentric, and frightening scientific expeditions. Draws on private journals, new interviews, and original research in German archives. First published in the United Kingdom under the title 'Himmler's ....Unfortunate to hear about Himler.Any way we should not delay jorney to mars.<br />

 

[alokmohan]

http://cmex.ihmc.us/MarsNews/mars_papers/added_docs.html#24.ZUBRINS MARS