Look at this REENTRY - Question

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ace5

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http://www.reentrynews.com/1994010c.html<br /><br />Accordingly to the information above, is there any chance of this satellite (in fact a chinese spent rocket stage) being seen in South America?<br /><br />The blue path indicates that the last debris plunged into the Atlantic, but some people here in Brazil claim they saw this reentry in the sky.
 
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MeteorWayne

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It's certainly possible. A prediction is just that....a prediction.<br /><br />The real world refuses to follow predictions sometimes.<br /><br />South America is not that far beyond the end of the "predicted" track demise, so only small errors of position or atmosphere could make enough of a difference. <br /><br />Or those people may just have seen something else. Are there any reports of what was observed? <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>
 
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ace5

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People here in Brazil, in the frontier with Paraguai, claim that they saw bright meteors over their cities. Some people says that some debris could be seen under the cloud blanket in the sky. <br />I personally dont think Longa March #a stage is the culprit for this sighting.
 
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soyuztma

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<blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr /><p>The blue path indicates that the last debris plunged into the Atlantic, but some people here in Brazil claim they saw this reentry in the sky.<p><hr /></p></p></blockquote><br />Isn't the blue path the ground track before reentry? Because most satellites orbit from west to east. The orange circle gives the predicted reentry point, but there seems to be a lot of uncertainty in the predicted time, so if the reentry was somewhat before that, you can see if you draw the blue line more to the left it goes right over Brazil and close to the border with Paraguay. So i think there's a good possibility these people saw indeed the Long March stage reenter. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>
 
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rocketwatcher2001

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It looks like it would be over the southern end of Brazil 40 minutes before the predicted reentry, if it reentered later than predicted, the ground track would not have brought it back over Brazil for another 50 minutes. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>
 
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MeteorWayne

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So where are the reports you are speaking of? What time? from where? Who are the "some people"?<br />Without such information, there's no way to evaluate anything you've said.<br /><br />Facts, Man <img src="/images/icons/smile.gif" /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>
 
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ace5

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So the site is only a 'predict' reference site, not a real reliable trajectory searching and tracking device?<br /><br />I think that it would be a so huge difference beetween the predicted point of reentry and the real one - in the case of a reentry over Brazil, that there is a great factor of innacuracy in the predicted reentry point.<br /><br />Do you think we can assume that there was a so big error margin in this particular case?<br /><br />The Long March stage is a 12 meters x 3 meters cylinder, 2.5 ton weight, wich implies in a big volume compared with a rather small mass (and the main mass concentration is located at the engine bay).<br />The stage would reeenter completely uncontrolled, tumbling, and I think it would be desintegrated rapidly.<br /><br />Do you agree?
 
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