So the site is only a 'predict' reference site, not a real reliable trajectory searching and tracking device?<br /><br />I think that it would be a so huge difference beetween the predicted point of reentry and the real one - in the case of a reentry over Brazil, that there is a great factor of innacuracy in the predicted reentry point.<br /><br />Do you think we can assume that there was a so big error margin in this particular case?<br /><br />The Long March stage is a 12 meters x 3 meters cylinder, 2.5 ton weight, wich implies in a big volume compared with a rather small mass (and the main mass concentration is located at the engine bay).<br />The stage would reeenter completely uncontrolled, tumbling, and I think it would be desintegrated rapidly.<br /><br />Do you agree?