Merged Apophis Topics

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sphynx

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EDITED NOTE FROM METEOR WAYNE:

Since Apophis has reappeared in the news, I have merged the 3 old existing threads into one for further discussion. The latest news is at the end of the thread.

It lacks a lot for the 2029, certain, but opportunities to do somewhat concrete with Apophis (2004 MN4), alone we will have them in their maximum approaches, that each 7 years are produced, that is to say the 2013 and the 2021.

Apophis, will pass to some 30,000 km of the Land in the 2029.
But just then, the terrestrial gravity will modify drastically its path and if we add it al margin of uncertainty (marked with the linea white in the image), we have that this mass of 350 meters with an equivalent destructive potential to 1000 Hiroshimas, will leave shot in a still impossible direction to predict.

The mayoria of the warnings they are referred al return of Apophis in the 2036, I refuse to accept that the danger be that, I believe that the brutal tug that will suffer Apophis in the 2029 will do that its orbit, save an increible coincidence, will not disturb again to the Earth.

On the contrary, I believe that the greater problem resides in the 2029 and with reference to the Moon.

In the graphic that I brought, originated in a flight simiulator of the Nasa is observed with clarity that when Apophis arrive at the Earth, our satellite will be in the possible road that take the asteroid once have grazed to our planet.

I call attention to this fact, only we should not know with accuracy the orbit of Apophis, also one must know what exact form considers since the radiation that receives in form uneven, will be another element of distortion of its path, and besides all the things, is necessary to know with accuracy where will be the Moon, in April 13, 2029, since Apophis, al to receive the gravitational of the Earth will deviate it and will accelerate in the direction that approximately will be ours satellite.
Excuse my badly management of the language.
From Argentina, a cordial greeting.
Sphynx
http://echo.jpl.nasa.gov/~ostro/mn4/
 
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brahe

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I am a big pesimist and I cant stop asking myself;is Apophis(asteroid) a threat to us.What is your opinion,and do you have any links?
 
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telfrow

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Wiki Article<br /><br />NASA NEO Program Summary <br /><br />No threat. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <strong><font color="#3366ff">Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will to strive, to seek, to find and not to yeild.</font> - <font color="#3366ff"><em>Tennyson</em></font></strong> </div>
 
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docm

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1 in 45,000. <br /><br />Maybe that Orion asteroid mission they've been talking about would be a good way to practice for a contingency mission. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>
 
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brahe

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do you think we will be ready to deflect it or to do something else,it sounds really difficult.
 
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MeteorWayne

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The odds of impact are so low we don't need to do anything except pay attention to what happens in the future. If something changes, then we can start to worry.<br />For now, sleep tight. <br /><br />Will we be ready to deflect it? (or more importantly, an object we don't know about yet)<br /><br />For now the answer is no. We have no missions available that could accomplish that. Heck, we don't even have any serious plans. Barely any ideas for plans, except for places like here where we talk about it. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>
 
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Boris_Badenov

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I don't just want to deflect it, I want to put it into an orbit where we can mine it. Deflection & relocation are essentially the same thing. <br /> It is not necessarily true that we are at present not able to deflect an asteroid on a collision course, it would just be incredibly difficult & expensive. <br /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <font color="#993300"><span class="body"><font size="2" color="#3366ff"><div align="center">. </div><div align="center">Never roll in the mud with a pig. You'll both get dirty & the pig likes it.</div></font></span></font> </div>
 
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MeteorWayne

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If an unknown impacting object popped up, we'd have no chance unless said impact was decades away.<br />I believe it is true that we would not be able to deflect an asteroid on a collisiion course at this time. You disagree. What would we be able to launch to accomplish such a mission, in say, the next 5 years?<br />Not just difficult and expensive, there are no craft to do it, IMO.<br /><br />This is something we need to correct ASAP. We certainly agree on that! <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>
 
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qso1

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I agree. There are no serious plans I'm aware of for such a mission. Certainly no hardware. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><strong>My borrowed quote for the time being:</strong></p><p><em>There are three kinds of people in life. Those who make it happen, those who watch it happen...and those who do not know what happened.</em></p> </div>
 
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billslugg

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Boris1961<br />It is true that deflection and relocation are essentially the same, but there is a difference in magnitude. A tiny nudge to an asteroid now, can result in a 10,000 km move sideways 20 years from now. To move it into an orbit whereby it can be mined might require a million or a billion times more energy input.<br />The trick is to find a heavy metal object that can be deflected by a small energy input, and impact the Earth's atmosphere. We could then mine the impact area.<br />I don't mind if it lands on my house as long as I get 10 years notice, plus mineral rights.<br /><br /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p> </p><p> </p> </div>
 
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qso1

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Its probably not a good idea to nudge an asteroid close enough to impact earths atmosphere. Especially an asteroid the size of a few city blocks or larger.<br /><br />If one intends to mine the asteroid. It may one day be possible to place a small (Mountain sized) asteroid in earth orbit. Maybe a circular orbit twice the diameter of the moons orbit or at one of the Lagrange points.<br /><br />A very small asteroid...building sized, could be directed to impact earths surface or airburst just above sites considered for mining. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><strong>My borrowed quote for the time being:</strong></p><p><em>There are three kinds of people in life. Those who make it happen, those who watch it happen...and those who do not know what happened.</em></p> </div>
 
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newtron

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<i>What would we be able to launch to accomplish such a mission, in say, the next 5 years?</i><br /><br />There probably some sort of payload that can be strategically used to do something to change the effects of an incoming collision. I don't know exactly what modern warheads are capable of, but I'd assume enough of them would have some sort of effect.<br /><br /> This is of course pending the size, material, structure, speed, etc of said incoming object. so the effects may be enough, or next to nil.<br /><br /><i>Not just difficult and expensive, there are no craft to do it, IMO.</i><br /><br /> Difficult, sure, but I wouldn't be surprised at what the international community would be capable of in terms of collaboration for survival.<br /> And expenses would probably be waived or embedded in extreme charity effort on worker's and companies behalf's (work and help or die people)<br /> As for crafts, you're probably right in this case, but we would probably scramble something.<br /><br /> The name of the game is survival, and most people and governments wouldn't lay down and say die. Though I will admit to technological implications and limits being, of course, very real setbacks.
 
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silylene old

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no threat.<br /><br />In fact, there is another asteroid which is a much more likely threat based on existing orbital data. The odds are on March 16, 2880 (yes, 874 years from now) that asteroid 1950 DA has a 1 in 300 chance of hitting the Earth. The trajectory of 1950 DA is quite well known (over 50 years of its orbit has been measured from photographs). Don't worry too much, as there are still many not very well understood factors which I think are likely to subtly alter the orbit of 1950DA between now and 2880, and reduce the chance of collision.<br /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature" align="center"><em><font color="#0000ff">- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -</font></em> </div><div class="Discussion_UserSignature" align="center"><font color="#0000ff"><em>I really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function.</em></font> </div> </div>
 
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MeteorWayne

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Welcome to SDC!<br /><br />If an object is on course to hit the earth, we have no payload that would signicicantly change the path.<br />More importantly, we have no way to deliver a payload to such an object.<br /><br />The thing is if someting is going to hit us in a few months, there's not time for the international community or one government, or a private source to come up with and implement a plan.<br /><br />Fortunately, it's pretty unlikely <img src="/images/icons/smile.gif" /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>
 
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cp28

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Maybe it's just me but as a Stargate fan I find it sorta amusing and containing a little irony that an asteroid with the name Apophis has/had a chance to hit the earth. Anyone who watched the show regularly probably knows why <img src="/images/icons/smile.gif" />.<br /><br />
 
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chembuff1982

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Nukes would cause more harm than help. They wouldn't incinerate the asteroid. We would need some kind of propulsion system or laser system to push at it and move it far enough away. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> You may be a genius, but google knows more than you! </div>
 
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alokmohan

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Sending a man by spacecraft to asteroid is nice.He may manipulate.
 
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qso1

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chembuff1982:<br />Nukes would cause more harm than help.<br /><br />Me:<br />Nukes would not necessarily have to be utilized to destroy an asteroid. Instead, nuclear explosions could be used to deflect an asteroid. Building a propulsion or laser system large enough to move a good sized roid is going to probably cost much more than nuclear deflection. Considering the target asteroid would have to be significantly larger than a football field to be considered a major threat. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><strong>My borrowed quote for the time being:</strong></p><p><em>There are three kinds of people in life. Those who make it happen, those who watch it happen...and those who do not know what happened.</em></p> </div>
 
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mikeemmert

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Hi, qso1, I know you said twice the distance, but I would like to take some time to point out that if you have two objects in orbit around the third with twice the <i>period</i> then every other orbit sees them in the same location. Thus one object (the Moon, in this case) tugs on the other in the same direction all the time.<br /><br />It can happen that instead of one object being pulled into a higher orbit, it's orbit will become more eccentric. After a while, eccentricity equals 1, and the object will crash into either the Earth or the Moon. This would be a disaster.<br /><br />Catching asteroids is tricky, and can be catastrophic if not done right, leading to an inevitable collision. I am convinced, however, that it <i>can</i> be done right.<br /><br />About Lagrange points; the L-4 and L-5 points are limited (see your calculus textbook for the definition of a limit) mathematical solutions to the <i>three</i> body problem. If substantial material is placed in <i>both</i> of the Lagrange points, count up how many bodies there are. Earth, Moon, asteroid, asteroid...one, two, three, four,...doh! It's the four body problem! And I am convinced this problem has shown up in naturally formed bodies, such as Pluto and Eris (associated with Neptune) and Valhalla and Aesgard craters on Callisto, which I believe were Callisto's L-4 and L-5 bodies. Or take a good look at Uranus' Miranda, see if you can spot the now-displaced Lagrange points.<br /><br />Easy solution; only fill one Lagrange point.
 
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Boris_Badenov

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That is a great diagram. Where did you get it? <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <font color="#993300"><span class="body"><font size="2" color="#3366ff"><div align="center">. </div><div align="center">Never roll in the mud with a pig. You'll both get dirty & the pig likes it.</div></font></span></font> </div>
 
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cretdob

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Funny how people always seem to say that we needn't worry about an asteroid impact within our life time. It's always comfortably hundreds of years away. So we're at exactly the right point in history where we're safe? <br /><br />I'm not exactly losing sleep over this possibility but the ever present uncertainty principle makes me wonder.<br /><br />If you could impact the roid, how can you know for certain its altered trajectory? What other forces in the universe would be affected by such a venture? What if it bangs another roid as a result (although probably not immediately). Couldn't the orbits of other orbs be affected by a change to any one of them?<br /><br />Maybe we'd save ourselves short term but subject ourselves to a greater threat long term in the process of a planned deflection of Auntie Asteroid.
 
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sphynx

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The reasoning of my predecessor is not correct. <br />If we verify that the 2004MN4 will pass to less than 30.000km of the Earth in 2029, and that probably collide with her with the power of 1000 megatons, I do not have doubts of what we should do: to destroy it or to deviate it. <br /><br />Me does not he interest that the alteration of the orbit of Apophis cause that Jupiter move 10 cm to the left inside 1000 years. <br /><br />The problem is here ALREADY, and one must go thinking as to resolve it, since the technology to defend us of Apophis, not yet we have it. <br /><br />One must put to work, we decide our destiny, not God playing dices…<br /><br />Greatings from Argentine.<br />Sphynx
 
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silylene old

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I found these lyrics about the most dangerous asteroid known (1/300 chance of collision in March, 2888)...by "Monster Movie" ("To The Moon", 2004)<br /><br /><i><br />"1950 DA" <br /><br />Somewhere in outer space<br />comprised of rocks and clay<br />go with the Earth and Sun<br />around Jupiter it's from<br /> <br />Astronomers say<br />800 years away<br />another biblical day<br />1950 DA<br /><br />Those guys who watch the sky<br />to find the reasons why<br />they turn and do their sums<br />to work out where it comes<br /><br />Astronomers say<br />800 years away<br />another biblical day<br />1950 DA<br /><br />Some people might run<br />little timid runaways<br />looking for a hideaway<br /><br />Nobody can hide<br />from a giant tidal wave<br />Unless their science finds a way<br /><br />Somewhere in outer space<br />comprised of rocks and clay<br />go with the Earth and Sun<br />around Jupiter it's from<br /><br />Astronomers say<br />800 years away<br />another biblical day<br />1950 DA<br /><br />Some people might run<br />little timid runaways<br />looking for a hideaway<br /><br />Nobody can hide<br />from a giant tidal wave<br />Unless their science finds a way<br /></i> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature" align="center"><em><font color="#0000ff">- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -</font></em> </div><div class="Discussion_UserSignature" align="center"><font color="#0000ff"><em>I really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function.</em></font> </div> </div>
 
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