Musk: $9 million to Mars?

[radarredux]

The Space Review has an article about SpaceX's plan to provide inexpensive access to LEO (both manned and unmanned). What I found interesting is his long-term vision: one-way trips to Mars. This is not to far from how large numbers of people settled new territory in the past -- selling everything to establish a new life somewhere else.<blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr /><p>“I think there’s some number of people in the US and other countries that would pay to move to Mars,” he claimed. “They would sell everything that they’ve got, and they would move to Mars.” If the cost of a one-way journey to Mars could be lowered to the “single-digit millions” of dollars, he said, “I think enough people would pay that to actually make the business plan quite viable. I think thousands of people a year would pay that.”<p><hr /></p></p></blockquote><br />http://www.thespacereview.com/article/682/1

 

[Boris_Badenov]

I wonder if they would hire a cook, or make me pay too<img src="/images/icons/wink.gif" /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <font color="#993300"><span class="body"><font size="2" color="#3366ff"><div align="center">. </div><div align="center">Never roll in the mud with a pig. You'll both get dirty & the pig likes it.</div></font></span></font> </div>

 

[jschaef5]

I think that the cost to turn Mars into a place where humans can actually live will cost so much that it would be difficult to for a business to do, they will have to wait until government agencies like NASA and ESA terraform Mars somehow. I can't see a company having the initial capital to put a livable habitat there. I think we will have to wait a long time into the future to see this. Another thing is that the cost of a country here that has maybe a million people would probably only be able to send say 100,000 people to Mars so you are left with 900,000 people back on earth with nothing. I think they are thinking too far ahead but I guess its a vision to shot for... <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>

 

[Boris_Badenov]

The BA330 is an excellent place to start, but each one is only about the size of a single family mobile home. If you had just those in your settlement, you would have the first Off Earth trailer park, & that would be a great start. From there you could build your town. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <font color="#993300"><span class="body"><font size="2" color="#3366ff"><div align="center">. </div><div align="center">Never roll in the mud with a pig. You'll both get dirty & the pig likes it.</div></font></span></font> </div>

 

[no_way]

<blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr /><p> I can't see a company having the initial capital to put a livable habitat there<p><hr /></p></p></blockquote> MSFT has a _cash reserve_ of 30+ billion I'd think this would go a long way of putting a livable habitat on surface of mars.

 

[halman]

RadarRedux,<br /><br />I think that he is nuts. People with that kind of money generally are not starry-eyed misfits wanting to escape the horrors of life on planet Earth. And a one-way ticket to Mars anytime in the next one hundred years is pretty much about the same as a one-way ticket to Australia was for people in the early 1800's. People will be able to survive on Mars, but there won't be a whole lot to do, unless there is a lot of support from Earth. Spending 30 years or more in a single wide trailer does not sound like my idea of fun, and going for a walk will take the rest of the day, and part of the evening. If there is enough compressed oxygen on hand.<br /><br />Over and over again, Mars is held up as the 'Ultimate Destination' in space. Perhaps because someday, many years from now, people will be able to walk the surface of Mars without life support equipment. Maybe it is because there is a remote possibility that, somewhere under the Martian surface, there are microbes and lichen scratching out a living, and what joy would come from knowing we are not the only life in the Cosmos. But for some reason, Mars is the focus of our romantic dreams about space travel. This in spite of the fact that we have not been able to go to the Moon again in nearly 40 years, and are still several years away from having that capability. Some people are even willing to forgo the learning experiences involved in living on the Moon for months at a time so that they can hurl themselves into the abyss a few years sooner.<br /><br />No one has ever created a self-sufficient artificial environment, in spite of the Biosphere attempts, and we have been doing little to research such technology. Just surviving in space for months at a time is still a huge challenge, requiring constant shipment of supplies. People think that the rocket technology is the only thing holding us back from heading for Mars right now. With orbital docking, and transfer of supplies, we could assembl <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> The secret to peace of mind is a short attention span. </div>

 

[spacefire]

times have changed.<br />If this relaity tv fad keeps going for 20 years or more, people like you and me will willing be coveringa large portion of the costs to establish a colony on Mars <img src="/images/icons/smile.gif" /><br /><br /><br /><br />"Yesterday whenw e were in the airlock John brushed his helmet against mine. I don't know if he emant it as a kiss or not...I'm so confused...because last night, in the greenhouse, Simon and I set up the inflatable pool and so now who should I pick...?"<br /><br />You decide! <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p>http://asteroid-invasion.blogspot.com</p><p>http://www.solvengineer.com/asteroid-invasion.html </p><p> </p> </div>

 

[qso1]

RadarRedux: <br />This is not to far from how large numbers of people settled new territory in the past -- selling everything to establish a new life somewhere else. <br /><br />Me: <br />Except that early settlers didn't have to worry about where food would come from as there were always plants and animals plentiful. No need to modify the place so they can simply breath. And most importantly, the wait may have been long but they could hitch a ship back home if they really wanted to. But settling largely human habitable lands made it unecessary. <br /><br />Settling Mars is a whole nother deal. Tough enough for a two way trip but people going on a one way trip? <br /><br />RadarRedux Space "X" article excerpt: <br />“I think there’s some number of people in the US and other countries that would pay to move to Mars,” he claimed. “They would sell everything that they’ve got, and they would move to Mars.” If the cost of a one-way journey to Mars could be lowered to the “single-digit millions” of dollars, he said, “I think enough people would pay that to actually make the business plan quite viable. I think thousands of people a year would pay that.” <br /><br />Me: <br />Sounds suspiciously optimistic to me. He did say that "If the cost of a one way trip to Mars could be lowered to singl digit millions". Now I'd be quite pleased to see private industry be able to do this. But I think thats wildly optimistic when one considers what the cost of buying a 747 is just to operate it on a mundane but lucrative commercial passenger operation. <br /><br />NASA cost estimates are minimum $50 B dollars to Mars and if NASA ever does it, I expect to see the cost balloon to about $200 B dollars. Private industry/enterprise might be able to halve that price or get as low as a few billion but unless they can mass produce Mars missions, the costs will remain relatively high. <br /><br />And BTW, a 747 costs well over $100 million dollars. So I find it difficult to imagine we can get to Mars, even one <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><strong>My borrowed quote for the time being:</strong></p><p><em>There are three kinds of people in life. Those who make it happen, those who watch it happen...and those who do not know what happened.</em></p> </div>

 

[rocketman5000]

NASA estimated $50B for the program correct? not a single mission. also it was singel digit millions per person not for the trip. therefore if you sent 4 to 10 people it would be $40M to $100M which suddenly seems much more doable

 

[yoda9999]

People forget that settling Mars is not the same as early explorers settling the New World or Australia. Any human can live pretty much anywhere on Earth. You breathe the same air everywhere, and no matter where you go, whether Australia or Tierra del Fuego, you can hunt and forage for food. You are free to roam and migrate to favorable climates when the seasons change. You can live alone as a hermit or live with a group anytime you please. You depend on the Earth's natural environment for survival.<br /><br />On Mars, however, the human body will never adapt to or depend on the natural environment (except for the low gravity and changes in daylight). The human body will only adapt to living in confined artificial habitats, under the protection of expensive life support systems. These habitats will, no doubt, simulate Earth's environment. The human body is never going to breathe Martian air, touch Martian rock (except in an artificial habitat), or see the Sun and sky without some protective visor. In other words, it will never be the human body that will conquer Mars, it will be the artificial life support systems that will conquer Mars. That takes a lot of the fun and romanticism out of settling Mars.<br /><br />I would like to be proven wrong, but I don't think most humans want to live the rest of their lives in small confined artificial habitats, and have their bodies dependent on life support systems. Cabin fever, disease, awkward relationships, and the inability to have total individual freedom will be some of the few things that would destroy these settlements. You want to literally be on life support for the rest of your life?<br /><br />Remember, the main reason people want to "escape" from civilization is to have FREEDOM! People want to be free to move about, free to live with whomever they please, or freedom to survive alone. If you want freedom, Mars is the LAST place you want to be! You will never be free on Mars. You will forever be shackled to the artificial

 

[thalion]

^<br />Great post.<br /><br />Ditto for Halman.<br /><br /><i>No one has ever created a self-sufficient artificial environment, in spite of the Biosphere attempts, and we have been doing little to research such technology. Just surviving in space for months at a time is still a huge challenge, requiring constant shipment of supplies. People think that the rocket technology is the only thing holding us back from heading for Mars right now. With orbital docking, and transfer of supplies, we could assemble a ship capable of going to Mars. But no one knows how to keep the crew alive for the whole trip, and there will be no way to correct any mistakes once they have left for Mars.</i><br /><br />This is the crux of any attempt to colonize the Moon or Mars. The clear obstacles are in addition to those we don't know about--for instance, is Martian dust corrosive? Can it "cleansed" so that plants will grow in it? How will the dust affect machinery and parts? How deep is the water table, and how difficult will it be to make it usable? And very important: how will the human body adapt to Martian gravity? We have no idea, as yet.<br /><br />Yoda brings up a point that I think gets far too little discussion in talking about a Mars colony: the problem of psychology. No one doubts that it's stressful to live on a space station for months on end; how much more so for years? Its easy for us take for granted living in a world without life support suits and walls, but not so much for a transplant to the Red Planet. It may be enough to drive most Earth-born people stir crazy; furthermore, we have no idea how people actually born and raised in such an environment will turn out.<br /><br />More on topic, now...<br /><br />I think the issue here is not one of money. If the price of a one-way ticket could be hypothetically brought down to $1 million, sure there could be thousands of potential clients, but will they consider it worth it? There are a lot of ways to die en route to Mars and

 

[spacester]

One-way tickets to Mars: golly, where have I heard that idea before? <img src="/images/icons/smile.gif" /><br /><br />(RTBOFT: Replying To Bottom Of Flat Thread)<br /><br />I waited on this thread until now so as to identify the latest batch of folks here who I can only classify as negativists. Are you all here, then?<br /><br />Pessimism is one thing, realism is another thing, pragmatism is yet another; all have their place in fruitful debate. But embarking on what amounts to a campaign to discredit those who are leading us into space is out of line IMO. If you cannot lead, follow or get out of the way then you are part of the problem, not part of the solution. Pounding away on your keyboard as a negativist is getting in the way of progress.<br /><br />There are a number of fallacies in what I read here and I'm no longer content with issuing mild rebukes in the interest of being nice. If you want to be a negativist, you're going to have to deal with me.<br /><br />Perhaps the universal fallacy is the assumption that what makes sense for you as an individual is what must make sense for everyone. You seek to impose your world view on everyone else. Hey, you're not prepared to move to Mars, that's understandable. But you transfer your reticence to the rest of the human race and that's just BS.<br /><br />This fallacy manifests itself in many forms. One is the circular reasoning that since <b>in your opinion</b> it will 'take decades' to establish ourselves on Mars, that anyone who tries to do it sooner 'is nuts', thus removing yourself from the ranks of supporters, <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>

 

[j05h]

> People forget that settling Mars is not the same as early explorers settling the New World or Australia...<br /><br />Singularly shortsighted and unimaginative. Just because you can't think of a solution does not preclude a solution. Artificial environments are not all tin cans. Every one of the first Martians will be famous and history-making, there is incentive to go.<br /><br />(back to NOT catching stripers - where ARE the fish?)<br /><br />Josh <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <div align="center"><em>We need a first generation of pioneers.</em><br /></div> </div>

 

[yoda9999]

J05H:<br />Artificial environments are not all tin cans.<br /><br />Me:<br />They will be on Mars. We haven't even been able to create a self-sustaining artificial environment here on Earth. We need to create a new biosphere project that achieves that here on Earth and get some people to live in it for a few years.<br /><br />Humans won't become "Martianized" because they still have to live under life support systems that simulate Earth environment. If I was an alien Martian, naturally adapted to living on Mars, I would feel insulted that a bunch of weakling humans forced to live in spacesuits and domes would claim to be the new Martians. Hah!<br /><br />I don't doubt that people will one day live and work on Mars. I just don't know when there will be permanent settlements and life would be comfortable. By permanent settlements I mean ones where the population doesn't need to be rotated or refreshed, and people can live there for the rest of their lives, have babies, raise children, etc. Maybe in a hundred or two hundred years?

 

[qso1]

rocketman5000:<br />NASA estimated $50B for the program correct? not a single mission.<br /><br />Me:<br />NASA estimates are fairly broad. They usually cover the program through the first mission. The single digit figure if I understand you correctly is the cost per tourist? I went to the link but didn't see the $9 million figure or much on Mars for that matter. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><strong>My borrowed quote for the time being:</strong></p><p><em>There are three kinds of people in life. Those who make it happen, those who watch it happen...and those who do not know what happened.</em></p> </div>

 

[qso1]

yoda9999:<br />People forget that settling Mars is not the same as early explorers settling the New World or Australia...<br /><br />Me:<br />Well stated and I couldn't agree more. Its one thing to establish a base on mars in which there would be crews returning. Rotating on a two, maybe four year basis. But one way trips to start a colony? <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><strong>My borrowed quote for the time being:</strong></p><p><em>There are three kinds of people in life. Those who make it happen, those who watch it happen...and those who do not know what happened.</em></p> </div>

 

[qso1]

Since your classifying those of us with a contrary opinion as negativists...I certainly do not think one way mars trips are a viable option so...here I am.<br /><br />spacester:<br />So you're sitting there at your keyboard and you want me to believe that you're smarter than a guy who built PayPal up from a mere concept to a fortune capable of building launchers for a living...<br /><br />Me:<br />There is no point in debating when someone sees only famous over achievers as smarter than the rest of us. But I'm dumb so I'll debate anyway, LOL. Obviously Elon Musk is smarter than me and others here in your world so I wish him and you luck in his Mars quest...I'm sure I'm too stupid and unvisionary to do anything like that.<br /><br />We should ask...does Elon Musk say its doable?<br /><br />spacester:<br />Perhaps the universal fallacy is the assumption that what makes sense for you as an individual is what must make sense for everyone. You seek to impose your world view on everyone else. Hey, you're not prepared to move to Mars, that's understandable.<br /><br />Me:<br />As an observer of things in general, I accomodate both pros and cons. I don't rely on a world view, but observe what the world may be doing. And whatever view is voiced, is certainly not imposing some world view on others, I mean, this is a debate right? If someone wants to live on Mars never to return to Earth, have at it. But those of us not very smart individuals who voice an opinion on something are just voicing opinions, nothing more.<br /><br />spacester:<br />One is the circular reasoning that since in your opinion it will 'take decades' to establish ourselves on Mars, that anyone who tries to do it sooner 'is nuts',<br /><br />Me:<br />Lets see, we sent humans into space in 1961. Von Braun presented his plan for Mars in 1969...we still have yet to send humans to Mars and Von Brauns plan was presented nearly four decades ago. If Musk started today, he might get someone to Mars in fifteen years and if its for one <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><strong>My borrowed quote for the time being:</strong></p><p><em>There are three kinds of people in life. Those who make it happen, those who watch it happen...and those who do not know what happened.</em></p> </div>

 

[vt_hokie]

I have to agree with Halman. The first thing I thought when I read that was, "Is he nuts?!"

 

[spacester]

Shoot, that's what I was afraid of; when I try to keep things short I fail to make my points. And my posts are already too long for most people as it is. Also, I kinda lumped everybody together, I don't usually do that. Let me try again.<br /><br />It's not that I think that Elon Musk is necessarily smarter than everyone else, I just think that it is absurd to say that "he's nuts", and when obvious problems to be solved are held up as show-stoppers, that's just negativity for its own sake. I very much reject the whole 'cult of personality' and 'appeal to authority' thing. He's just a guy, I'm just a guy, you're just a guy, etc. Please accept my apology if you felt I questioned your intelligence. All I'm trying to address is attitude. I try to accept everyone's opinions, but when the leaders I admire are attacked, I will defend them in their absence.<br /><br />Also, I am sick and tired of people proposing policy based on their own world view when that view is clearly pessimistic relative to others. Well informed opinions are valid but my experience is that the most pessimistic opinions are ALWAYS ill-informed. It's so easy to say that something will not happen for 100 years, but to some extent it is a self-fulfilling prophesy. I freely admit that I am near the most optimistic end of the scale and will make no apologies for that. Someone has to balance out the nattering nabobs of negativity. Just imagine a world where all these negativists shifted their attitude and began working towards solutions instead of sitting back and watching their no-ambition world-view become reality.<br /><br />The lettuce and onions thing was about the fact that all the food needed for a Mars Settlement can be shipped there ahead of time and any locally produced food could be treated as a bonus. In fact you would be flirting with suicide to do other than that. A one-way approach would NOT be a suicide mission; on the contrary the idea is to direct resources more efficiently to the over-riding g <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>

 

[qso1]

spacester:<br />I just think that it is absurd to say that "he's nuts",<br /><br />Me:<br />I can speak only for myself on that one and so far. I'm not looking at him like he's nuts. What I was able to read of his comments, they were more or less staetments on an optimistic space future. As time goes forward, IMO he will see opportunities for two way tourism of mars which could lead to a colony. I don't think an apology is necessary since you have better clarified your position. I didn't take offense personally. Others may have. My point was the one you made. "He puts his pants on just like the rest of us". He just makes more money doing it.<br /><br />spacester:<br />Also, I am sick and tired of people proposing policy based on their own world view when that view is clearly pessimistic relative to others. Well informed opinions are valid but my experience is that the most pessimistic opinions are ALWAYS ill-informed. It's so easy to say that something will not happen for 100 years, but to some extent it is a self-fulfilling prophesy.<br /><br />Me:<br />I can understand this. It is frustrating when people get a certain mindset. I'm one who would say that it'll take decades but thats because of previous experience with actual human spaceflight and knowing the difficulty of just getting a near flags and footprints mars mission makes the decades argument seem more likely.<br /><br />However, despite collective mindsets. It should be remembered that those rare individuals who want to see something thru, often prevail against the worst odds. They make the history books while us doubters are never known. But only time will tell if Musk will achieve his vision.<br /><br />spacester:<br />Also, I am sick and tired of people proposing policy based on their own world view when that view is clearly pessimistic relative to others. Well informed opinions are valid but my experience is that the most pessimistic opinions are ALWAYS ill-informed.<br /><br />Me:<br />Only one solution here as someon <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><strong>My borrowed quote for the time being:</strong></p><p><em>There are three kinds of people in life. Those who make it happen, those who watch it happen...and those who do not know what happened.</em></p> </div>

 

[qso1]

spacester:<br />You know the real problem here is that we talked all the issues out once upon a time here, you didn't have the opportunity to be a part of that and I lack the patience to start all over again.<br /><br />Me:<br />I did participate in one recent discussion about another group proposing one way mars colonies except in this case, he was proposing sending one person to start up a colony.<br /><br />spacester:<br />The one-way trip is a very interesting topic and it is amusing that those for whom it is a brand-new concept say that those of us who have looked into it in some detail are nuts. Elon Musk has access to lots of smart people and it is reasonable to assume he has discussed this idea with others, yet some of you guys hear about it for the first time and make an instant declaration that it's nuts.<br /><br />Me:<br />I would think if Musk is seriously going to pursue any Mars projects, he has talked with experts in the various disciplines. And perhaps in time he may decide two way is best or maybe not. My own thing is that nobody so far has shown me that a one way trip can really be that much cheaper considering what is entailed in supporting even a few people in a one way colony.<br /><br />And as I mentioned in the previous post. I havn't called him nuts, at least not yet LOL. I'd consider the one guy one way to Mars nuts though.<br /><br />spacester:<br />I do not accept the arguments that the pace of progress in the past is a valid guide to pace of progress in the future or that if it could be done it already would be done. They are illogical statements. <br /><br />Me:<br />In the case of human space exploration. Until someone paradigm shifts the whole thing. The history guide is pretty much valid with few exceptions. Consider the following trends.<br /><br />HSF proposals always start optimistically, an example being a space station with hangars attached to service various craft.<br /><br />The station gets budget cutted and becomes a smaller design while being so <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><strong>My borrowed quote for the time being:</strong></p><p><em>There are three kinds of people in life. Those who make it happen, those who watch it happen...and those who do not know what happened.</em></p> </div>

 

[yoda9999]

Spacester, would you like a one-way trip to the next Biosphere 2 project? <img src="/images/icons/laugh.gif" />

 

[halman]

spacester,<br /><br />In my remark concerning Elon Musk's sanity, I was not referring to the possibility of sending people to Mars. I was addressing his statement that there would be thousands of people every year willing to spend about 10 million dollars to be sent to Mars. That goes far beyond optimism in my opinion, simply because it lumps the majority of wealthy people into an extreme position on space exploration.<br /><br />And, yes, I do consider myself to be pessimistic about space exploration right now. I was 13 years old when Apollo 11 landed on the Moon, and I found it to be a tremendously optimistic statement at a time of war and unrest. I maintained that optimism through the Skylab debacle, the years of no manned missions, the lack of funding for a spacestation when we had just built a wonderful vehicle for assembling one with, and the loss of one of those vehicles due to politics and stupidity.<br /><br />I still believe that heavy investment in space exploration could turn things around for the United States, instilling national pride without using military might, inspiring young people to follow paths in science and technology, and creating jobs that would not be outsourced. But what I see happening right now is a few billion being spent on space, spread between the government and the private sector. In spite of several entries into the X Prize contest, only one contender has been able to fly hardware consistantly.<br /><br />Being as there has been practically no leadership in promoting space exploration, the prospect of more years without manned spaceflight, and the balloning debt that the United States is carrying have all made me feel pretty despondent about any real progress being made in the near future. I would not consider it to be a major advance if a number of people decided to go to Mars for the rest of their lives, because that would do nothing to benefit the rest of us. More than any other activity humans can indulge in, space exploratio <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> The secret to peace of mind is a short attention span. </div>

 

[vt_hokie]

So, let me get this straight. There are plenty of millionares out there who want to spend their fortune on a one way trip to Mars, so they can leave Earth and all of their family and friends behind forever and spend the rest of their lives living in a bubble on a barren, hostile world, assuming they don't die on the way there? Okay, sure, I'll buy that!

 

[spacefire]

I think there are plenty of families of excentric millionaires who would want to play settler on Mars. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p>http://asteroid-invasion.blogspot.com</p><p>http://www.solvengineer.com/asteroid-invasion.html </p><p> </p> </div>