"Mysterious light," loud explosion in Virginia Beach

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MeteorWayne

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I've tried to get a job with SDC writing about subjects that I am intimately acquainted with, but so far they have not accepted my offer :oops: In order to ask a question at the 2008 TC3 news conference I had to use one of my other writing "jobs". I would be a great benefit to SDC's credibility, but hey, I only volunteer here :)
 
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aphh

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Has fireball activity increased recently?

A few nights ago I was motoring on countryside when I suddenly looked up in the sky. Through the windshield a yellow fireball entered the view. The relative velocity was rather slow, not like the usual high velocity of a meteor.

I followed the fireball a few seconds and expected to see a flash at the end, but it just faded away without a bang.

Is this phenomena becoming more common because of huge amount of space junk starting to make itself visible to us?
 
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MeteorWayne

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aphh":3clt2imn said:
Has fireball activity increased recently?

A few nights ago I was motoring on countryside when I suddenly looked up in the sky. Through the windshield a yellow fireball entered the view. The relative velocity was rather slow, not like the usual high velocity of a meteor.

I followed the fireball a few seconds and expected to see a flash at the end, but it just faded away without a bang.

Is this phenomena becoming more common because of huge amount of space junk starting to make itself visible to us?

In a word, no. If you look at the AMS fireball database mentioned elsewhere, this stuff happens all the time, more than 1 reported per day; and the reports only cover a fraction of what is seen. Most people don't bother to report what they see...

Just as a ballpark figure, through March 20 (79 days) there have been 200 fireball reports on the AMS website in 2009:

http://www.amsmeteors.org/fireball/fire ... g2009.html
 
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aphh

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MeteorWayne":1fitapg6 said:
In a word, no. If you look at the AMS fireball database mentioned elsewhere, this stuff happens all the time, more than 1 reported per day; and the reports only cover a fraction of what is seen. Most people don't bother to report hat they see...

Thanks, then it's just myself keeping a better eye on the sky now than I used to.
 
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jim48

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Well, it could have been the vanguard of an invading army from Mars. It's happened a couple of times before. Another reason why I refuse to go anywhere near a meteorite.
 
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o_rune_o

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One more interesting bit from a new website's comment section. Seems to be a little more like propaganda, but it's info nonetheless.

http://www.whatdoesitmean.com/index1219.htm

Can someone better explain what the yellow and blue lines on the reentrynews.com page mean? I get the part where the circle means that's where it re-entered the atmosphere (unless I'm wrong, then of course I don't get that part either).
 
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MeteorWayne

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The explanation for the lines and circle are right under the map. Blue is before orbit before predicted reentry, yellow is after, the tick marks on them are 5 minute intervals, and orange is the visible horizon from of the object at predicted reentry time.
 
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o_rune_o

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I know that, I read those parts. I just didn't completely understand them being as it's the first time I've seen such data. So correct me if I'm wrong, but the blue/yellow is the expected path of re-entry. The orange circle is where they think it will enter the atmosphere. And all in all none of it has been confirmed, it's just the best guess at the time?
 
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MeteorWayne

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Yes, it's a little hard to visualize with only one orbit showing. The blue and yellow line is the orbital path of the object. It's easier to see when a few orbits are showing. At some point, at the lowest point in the orbit it will interact with the atmosphere and reenter, that is predicted to be where the patch changes from blue to yellow. Normally, for predictions a few days in advance, there are many orbits shown, and the most likely one is where the blue/yellow transition and orange circle is. It is hard to precisely predict far in advance exactly which orbit the object will get low enough to come in, since the interaction with the atmosphere leading up to that (which is after all what causes it to reenter) can't be known particularly for an out of control, tumpling object.

With this particular final prediction, the low point of the orbit was so low it was sure to interact with the atmosphere, so the time was much more precise than usual.

Hope that helps
MW
 
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o_rune_o

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So with all the street cams and everything...why hasn't there been any photos of this thing? :?:
 
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o_rune_o

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Smersh":17ybcrnz said:
o_rune_o":17ybcrnz said:
One more interesting bit from a new website's comment section. Seems to be a little more like propaganda, but it's info nonetheless.

http://www.whatdoesitmean.com/index1219.htm ...

Actually it's dis-info. Google "Sorcha Faal hoaxer" and you'll see what I mean.

That's kinda what I figured. Some websites seem credible...others, well, not so much.

One last link, then I'm getting lunch lol.

There are about 4 videos on here. I couldn't load any so I don't know if they have footage of the event, but they're labeled as being related.
http://www.wvec.com/video/topvideo-inde ... vid=347185
 
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Smersh

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o_rune_o":3jrm3ya1 said:
Here's a couple videos. I couldn't see the second one because of the firewall at work. So it may be a duplicate. The first is a news report, but a few seconds in they show a video.

It's embedded about halfway down the page.
http://www.wvec.com/news/topstories/sto ... d22a9.html

This is the one I could open.
http://s281.photobucket.com/albums/kk24 ... 140wmv.flv

I just watched those videos and in the first, they're still talking about the Soyuz rocket being responsible but we've already ruled that out because it re-entered over Taiwan.

I think the second video looks like it might be something to do with the incident as filmed from space. Might be significant, not sure but seemed interesting. Do you know where the video came from originally?

(EDIT) Oh hang on - just noticed it says "Norfolk Botanical Gardens Eaglecam" so must be ground level. Not very clear unfortunately ...
 
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o_rune_o

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Smersh":rlvt3p9l said:
o_rune_o":rlvt3p9l said:
Here's a couple videos. I couldn't see the second one because of the firewall at work. So it may be a duplicate. The first is a news report, but a few seconds in they show a video.

It's embedded about halfway down the page.
http://www.wvec.com/news/topstories/sto ... d22a9.html

This is the one I could open.
http://s281.photobucket.com/albums/kk24 ... 140wmv.flv

I just watched those videos and in the first, they're still talking about the Soyuz rocket being responsible but we've already ruled that out because it re-entered over Taiwan.

I think the second video looks like it might be something to do with the incident as filmed from space. Might be significant, not sure but seemed interesting. Do you know where the video came from originally?

(EDIT) Oh hang on - just noticed it says "Norfolk Botanical Gardens Eaglecam" so must be ground level. Not very clear unfortunately ...

The first one talked about the rocket crap, I mean "Rocket Story". But they had a quick little blip of a video right after the guy in the observatory. I wish they had a time stamp, but that's the best I can give you.
 
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MeteorWayne

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Here's what spaceweather said: (See link above)

" News reports that a Russian rocket fell over the US mid-Atlantic coast on Sunday evening, March 29th, are probably incorrect. A spent Russian rocket booster did reenter Earth's atmosphere on March 29th, but apparently not over the USA. According to data published by US Strategic Command, the reentry occurred near Taiwan (24° N, 125° E) at 11:57 p.m. EDT. So what were those lights in the sky over Maryland and Virginia two hours earlier? Eyewitness accounts of the Atlantic Coast fireball are consistent with a meteoritic bolide--a random asteroid hitting Earth's atmosphere and exploding in flight. "
 
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MeteorWayne

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TUESDAY AM UPDATE: The Joint Space Operations Center at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California this morning adds this confirmatory note:

"The JSpOC tracks over 19,000 manmade objects in space. The "bright light"
that was reported on the East Coast on Sunday, 29 March at 9:45 p.m. EST was not a result of any trackable manmade object on reentry. Natural phenomena are not tracked by JSpOC professionals.

Thanks,

Stefan T. Bocchino
Deputy, 30th Space Wing Public Affairs"
 
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MeteorWayne

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I guess I can safely say "I told you so" :)


http://www.space.com/news/090331-likely-meteor.html

Virginia Fireball Now Said to Be Meteor, Not Rocket
By Andrea Thompson
Senior Writer
posted: 31 March 2009
10:10 am ET

A brilliant fireball in the Virginia sky on Sunday was likely a natural meteor event and not the remnants of a Russian rocket, scientists now say, a reversal from yesterday's initial analysis.

On Monday, Geoff Chester of the U.S. Naval Observatory told SPACE.com that the loud boom and flash of light seen in the skies over Norfolk and Virginia Beach was likely the second stage of the Soyuz rocket that launched Expedition 19 to the International Space Station last Thursday.

However, U.S. Strategic Command has since reported that the rocket re-entered Earth's atmosphere near Taiwan, on the other side of the world, several hours after the reports of the fireball. So both its timing and entry location rule out the rocket as the explanation for the fireball.

"Well, we're all entitled to a 'mulligan' now and then, right," Chester wrote SPACE.com in an email, adding that he deferred Strategic Command. (A mulligan is a do-over in golf.)

"However, it is still a remarkable coincidence that a random rock would fall out of the sky along a path that is very similar to the ground-track of a decaying rocket body," Chester added. "But this is what makes science fun!"

The evidence now suggests, he said, that the loud boom and streak of light was created by a natural meteor, or bolide, burning up as it plummeted through Earth's atmosphere.

"I'm confident that this was a meteoric event," Bill Cooke of NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center in Alabama said this morning.

Sunday night light show

Residents of the areas around Norfolk and Virginia Beach, Va., began calling 911 Sunday night with reports of hearing a loud boom and seeing a streak of light that lit up the sky, according to news reports. Some said their houses shook.

The difficulty in distinguishing the cause of such a fireball lies in getting accurate reports with the right kinds of information.

"Most of the eyewitness accounts don't mention altitudes and azimuths. They just describe the light show," Chester explained.

Chester said he received "credible reports" from amateur astronomers that, when combined with the area from which reports of the fireball originated, "fit the ground-track of the rocket body with remarkable similarity."

"The only problem is that the time the rocket was predicted to pass over the area differs by some 10 minutes from the reported times that the fireball was seen," Chester said. The difference could be the result of an error in his prediction software or could be 'real,'" he said.

But, "based on the evidence I have at hand now, I have to lean more toward the 'natural' explanation," Chester said.

Space rocks the size of small cars plunge into Earth's atmosphere several times a year, typically burning up before reaching the ground. Most go unreported since they fall over uninhabited areas (our planet's surface is two-thirds ocean).

Investigation continues

Cooke agreed that tracing the fireball's source is tricky given the paucity of information available.

"It's very hard to do given only eyewitness accounts," Cooke said in a telephone interview. He plans to look at sound measurements (meteors make sounds below human hearing as they travel through the atmosphere) taken that could reveal the energy of the bolide and in turn give a rough estimate of its size.

Video of the object, if any surfaces, could also shed light on the trajectory of the fireball. Such video often comes from the dashboard cameras in police cars, Cooke said. "They're out that time of night, and the camera is always running."

But, he said, "It's going to be very hard to get more information" on the nature of the bolide.

Whether or not any fragments of the meteor might have made it to Earth's surface is uncertain. "Most bolides do not," Cooke said. "The atmosphere is very good at protecting us from falling rocks."

A few space rocks do occasionally make it to the surface though. In recent years, pieces of a bolide were found after a meteor event in western Canada, Chicago and Peekskill, NY, Cooke said. Fragments of a meteor that originated from an asteroid that blew up over the skies of Africa last October were also recovered in the Sudanese desert.
 
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o_rune_o

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So now that we've determined it was a rock...how do we explain that we heard it here in Pa. about 550 miles north. And people in London, Ontario (another 30 miles) heard it as well?

(Edit)
I'm not really an expert on sonic booms...but is it possible that there was sound when it entered the atmosphere, sound again when breaking the sound barrier, and sound once more when it impacted?
 
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MeteorWayne

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It's not clear that it was heard that far away, or even technically that it was really seen. From many years of investigating fireballs, you have to actually look at the reports for what they actually saw or heard, not what they think they saw or heard.

Most people insert their preconceptions (i.e. "it landed just over that hill" or "it was 3 miles away") which is 99.9% of the time wrong. Most people don't properly record the time, or the direction or the elevation. It's just not something the average person is prepared to do, or has the tools or knowledge to do. So you look at all the reports, and the preponderance of evidence, and make your best effort to deduce what actually happened.

It is of course prevented by Murphy's Law that an experienced meteor observer like me to see one of these. I am someone who has a calibrated watch at all times, practices azimuth and elevation all the time, and knows the sky well enough to plot the path on the special gnomic meteor plotting charts that are in my car at all times.

99.99% of the people who see a fireball seldom if ever look at the sky :)

For example, if you look at event 200 (March 20th, SE US) in the 2009 AMS fireball reports ( http://www.amsmeteors.org/fireball/fire ... g2009.html ), you can see that the 78 reports, which are most likely the same event, have times from 0100 EDT to 0300 EDT. One really needs to examine the reports in detail.

I will post the link when the reports from this event are added.
 
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MeteorWayne

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Just ran across something. I am NOT saying this was the object, but the possibility can't be discounted. One object, 2004 FU 162, on the JPL Sentry risk page has a number of VERY LOW probability impact possibilities on March 31 (today)between 0600 and 2200 UT. It was a very poorly observed object, only 4 observations over 44 minutes on March 31, 2004. As a result, the error bars are HUGE.
So it's not unrealistic that this could have been the bolide that impacted earth's atmosphere 2 days earlier this year.

I'll do some followup to see if the projected path could match that of the Sunday night bolide.

It was about a 6 meter sized object, and would have impacted the earth at around 15 km/sec with an energy of ~110 kilotons. That would fit pretty well with the reports I think.

Please note I am not sure, I'm just throwing out the idea.

If it was 2004 FU 162, we may never know, since it would not therefore be ever recovered again.

Here's the JPL risk page on the object:

http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/2004fu162.html
 
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Smersh

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MeteorWayne":1dyvfilh said:
I guess I can safely say "I told you so" :)


http://www.space.com/news/090331-likely-meteor.html

Virginia Fireball Now Said to Be Meteor, Not Rocket
By Andrea Thompson
Senior Writer
posted: 31 March 2009
10:10 am ET ...

Maybe Andrea Thompson read this thread, saw your comments and investigated further! Maybe you should put in a claim for a paycheck with SDC. :p


MeteorWayne":1dyvfilh said:
Just ran across something. I am NOT saying this was the object, but the possibility can't be discounted. One object, 2004 FU 162, on the JPL Sentry risk page has a number of VERY LOW probability impact possibilities on March 31 (today)between 0600 and 2200 UT. It was a very poorly observed object, only 4 observations over 44 minutes on March 31, 2004. As a result, the error bars are HUGE.
So it's not unrealistic that this could have been the bolide that impacted earth's atmosphere 2 days earlier this year.

I'll do some followup to see if the projected path could match that of the Sunday night bolide.

It was about a 6 meter sized object, and would have impacted the earth at around 15 km/sec with an energy of ~110 kilotons. That would fit pretty well with the reports I think.

Please note I am not sure, I'm just throwing out the idea.

If it was 2004 FU 162, we may never know, since it would not therefore be ever recovered again.

Here's the JPL risk page on the object:

http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/2004fu162.html


That's very interesting Wayne. If you hear any more info on this, or come up with any more possible candidates for the meteor, please let us know. Cheers! :cool:
 
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o_rune_o

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MeteorWayne":13y10034 said:
Just ran across something. I am NOT saying this was the object, but the possibility can't be discounted. One object, 2004 FU 162, on the JPL Sentry risk page has a number of VERY LOW probability impact possibilities on March 31 (today)between 0600 and 2200 UT. It was a very poorly observed object, only 4 observations over 44 minutes on March 31, 2004. As a result, the error bars are HUGE.
So it's not unrealistic that this could have been the bolide that impacted earth's atmosphere 2 days earlier this year.

I'll do some followup to see if the projected path could match that of the Sunday night bolide.

It was about a 6 meter sized object, and would have impacted the earth at around 15 km/sec with an energy of ~110 kilotons. That would fit pretty well with the reports I think.

Please note I am not sure, I'm just throwing out the idea.

If it was 2004 FU 162, we may never know, since it would not therefore be ever recovered again.

Here's the JPL risk page on the object:

http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/2004fu162.html

2004 FU162 has 963 potential impacts though. So wouldn't that mean if that's the one we're in for a few more boom booms? or am I interpreting the "Potential Impacts" column wrong? http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk

The Close Approaches page also has a few coming up that are getting a tid bit close. http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/ca/
2009 FP32 being the closest at 286,327 miles tonight.
 
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