drwayne":20g04kj5 said:
My questions earlier were not really a tangent by the way. Is the line between
agressiveness and carelessness really soley determined by whether things work
out or not?
In the case of Apollo 13, data existed that a problem was there, but was probably
manageable. Clearly, they had no idea how close to the hairy edge of ugly
failure they were running. The facts of course were that they were within
a second or two of destroying the stack.
Wayne
No the line is not simply whether or not a decision results in success or failure. The very decision to launch entails some risk, and where there is risk there is always some chance of failure. In that regard there is some parallel with Naval ships that go "in harms way". The overall risk is something that the astronauts sign up to when they become astronauts. Rockets are inherently risky. The shuttle is not a bus.
On the other hand, when one makes a "go" decision for a particular launch and a particular launch date, that decision ought to be made in an almost completely risk-averse manner. There is no point is taking a risk to launch on Tuesday, when you can always stand down, evaluate the risk and perhaps fix the problem and then launch on Friday. In that regard a launch decision is quite different from a military decision to "go in harms way".
The problem with the Challenger decision was the acceptance of unnecessary risk in the name of the launch schedule. Rockets are designed, tested and qualified to a specific set of environments and criteria. One ought not go outside of those criteria without an extraordinarily good reason and without a great deal of technical data that shows it to be acceptable to do so. There is quite a history showing that small changes in rocket conditions, changes or excursions thought to be minor, have resulted in catastrophic failures. That is part of the business, because the difficulty in getting out of the Earth's gravity well, is so profound that rockets are driven to be of very high performance and very low weight, making them susceptivle to single-point failures. That is why professional rocket people are very conservative with regard to technical matters and do not operate outside of proven regimes without an extraordinary level of analytical and test data. The Challenger decision was pushed by non-technical people in high positions, and the technical side that went along did so under protest, should have dug in their heels and refused to agree, but were under pressure that could affect their livelihood to sign up.
One has to pay attention to details and not do what might seem at the moment to be acceptable when the data is not clear. On one very major launch I got in the way, early on, of a "go" decision on the basis of a small part that showed an in-specification, but out-of-family condition. That condition would often be, and was, looked upon by the responsible engineer as actually being good -- it was a statistically very low leakage current. Leakage currents are normally viewed as a problem only when they are high. This one was 7-sigma low. 7-sigma events do not "just happen", and it was clear to me that that particular piece was different and the normal data did not apply. When the part was looked at in more detail it was found to be about to fail. It was replaced that the launch went without a hitch. There is no point in taking risks when you don't have to.
I don't know the details of the Apollo 13 story. I understand that some sort of problem with a heating element resulted in the incident, but I don't know what pre-launch indications they had of a problem. If, as you say, there were problem signs and the decision was made that the problem was manageable prior to launch then I would be rather critical of the decision making. The impact to fixing such a problem would only be a schedule delay. That sort of risk taking is not something that I would support.
Risks are part of the business, and are accepted on the basis of some rather rigorous technical work to mitigate those risks. One has to accept risks, with knowledge of the nature of the risks and having done everything reasonable to make sure that the risks don't turn into tragedy. But the stakes are high and taking a dare is just plain stupid.