<p><BR/>Replying to:<BR/><DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>So what. A study period narrows the choices down. Payload capacity is the main problem for Ares V. The rocket is now being designed around that criteria. Being able to lift the Altair lander with all it's supplies, is the goal. So, why can't that be done on a computer simulation? The data on the rocket motors, amount of propellent, mass of the vehicle are all known with in a few percentage points. The specifics can be done later, as you stated. If they can predict the weather (with reasonable accuracy) for 5-7 days in the future, with the thousands of variables, why can't Nasa do a decent rocket simulation? <br />Posted by kyle_baron</DIV></p><p>They do use computer simulations, that is part of the point. The simulations require software and computing power that NASA and/or the professionals working for their contractors have, but that you don't. Moreover, even if one has access to the necessary professional models, the simulations are done iteritavely and require refinement in design details to be accurate. Knowing mass of the vehicle, Isp, theoretical drag, etc. within a few percentage points is not good enough. This is the difference between how the professionals operate and how amateurs make big mistakes. The Ares vehicles cannot afford Space-X style fiascos. Reliance on simple computer models for aerodynamics, with no wind tunnel data, is one reason for the failure of the first flight of the Pegasus XL. Computer models need some real data to be accurate. You can't do it all with nothing but software. You need very sophisticated models, real data from hardware, and a good deal of education and experience to put it all together. Amateurs lack all of the above. The pros can still make mistakes even with heavy-duty computing capability and with a lot of additional data.</p><p>The design effort is not one big simulation. It is an enterprise that requires many disciplines, each with its own concerns and models plus a lot of communication and feedback among those disciplines. It requires some compromises among the disciplines so that all requirements are identified and met. </p><p>This kind of design work takes time. Demanding final answers right now, like some little kid, simply demonstrates ignorance of what is involved in the design effort. </p><p>And I don't know where you are, but I can assure you 5-7 day weather forecasts around here are not always that good. The local weatherman is on the tube as I type this, and he doesn't really know what is going to happen in a couple of hours. People who rely solely on long-range weather forecasts in the nearby mountains or desert to determine the conditions for which they must be prepared tend to die. One death and a couple of near misses in the last three days. We demand better sense from rocket designers.</p> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>