New Poll: Moon Yes, Mars No

mental_avenger · Dec 2, 2004

Dan, You have obviously put a lot of thought into this. I do have a few comments. (surprise) You have not differentiated between the Moon and Mars. They are not the same,and each has unique qualities that will require their own equipment and supplies. You list 3 blacksmiths per group/community. I understand that you consider this to be frontier territory, but blacksmiths will not be requied. We have progressed a lot since then. Believe me, I understand blacksmithing, my father was a blacksmith in a coal mine before he became a machinist. But there will be very little call for a blacksmith. I notice that you don't have a Bessemer Converter on you list, so you don't intend to make steel. However, the ability to make steel is worth the weight of the BC, or a BC can be fabricated on site, with iron and local clay. Virtually everything that must be made of iron/steel also must be machined to inteface with the rest of the technologically advanced equipment. Therefore, I would replace your blacksmiths with machinists, and include basic machine tools such as a vertical mill, engine lathe, turret lathe, radial drill, and surface grinder. Those tools, along with a spot welder, wire welder, and plasma torch should allow you do repair or fabricate anything you need. You advocate 1 bar atmosphere, with earth-like composition. This composition has no advantages, but does have several disadvantages. For instance: Surface suits on Mars can be light and flexible, if they are pressurized to about 3.5psi. At 6psi, they are still flexible and allow fine dexterity. At 14.7psi, they become balloons that are difficult to work in, and subject to damage. The point is, if the habitat air is at 14.7 psi, then anyone going to the surface will have to spend 3 hours in 90% O2 pre-breathing in order to go outside. Not very practical. If the habitat pressure was lowered to about 6psi, with a higher% O2, that time is <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> Our Solar System must be passing through a Non Sequitur area of space. </div>

mental_avenger · Dec 2, 2004

Do you have any idea of how much infrastructure one industrial 'machine' needs on Earth? Good point. By necessity, these will not be conventional machines. A bulldozer will consist of a six or eight DC electric traction motors, direct drive to the tracks. They will be powered by an nuclear power generator. That means that the highest maintenance components will be hydraulic systems, which can be replaced easily. All vehicles on Mars (or the Moon) will have the exact same drive moters and power systems. Simplicity and redundancy will play a big role in reducing maintenance. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> Our Solar System must be passing through a Non Sequitur area of space. </div>

mental_avenger · Dec 2, 2004

Yes the technology level of any colony will drop an 1800's level. I don't buy that. Not at all. I have a small drill/mill, and it is amazing what I can produce with that relatively simple machine. I also have access to my brothers' 14' engine lathe, turret lathe, vertical mills, and other machine equipment. Some of the things we turn out look as if they came from a major factory. The right tools can bring you from 1800 to the present in one step. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> Our Solar System must be passing through a Non Sequitur area of space. </div>

mental_avenger · Dec 2, 2004

It would take several thousand people to maintain a low tech 1800's colony. I believe you are waaaaaay off base on that one, as described above. Some technology does indeed require a lot of infrastructure, such as IC's, electronics, etc. But basic mechanical technology requires only the right machines, and the right operators. BTW, a great deal of technologically sophistocated parts can be (and are) made from aluminum and brass, which are very easy to machine. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> Our Solar System must be passing through a Non Sequitur area of space. </div>

dan_casale · Dec 2, 2004

Eldensmith: Before the SPACE.COM crash, I tried so summarize all the previous discussions on colonization in that one post. I tried to limit myself only to solutions that were at least into the initial prototype stage. Anything that was commercially available I listed prices. Almost everything has several independent supporting links. Spayss: Glad we found some common ground. If you have any suggestions, fire away. Mental: To this point I have tried to put no distinction on the colony location. Currently this colony could be anywhere, Moon, Mars, Orbital Habitat, or an Asteroid. Mining equipment for the Moon or Mars might have very small differences, perhaps only the power source. Mining equipment for an asteroid will require a zero gravity adaptation, and none is required for an orbital habitat. The real difference is the available resources and the ease of which those resources can be used. I support the blacksmith level of technology because I know that it is possible for a blacksmith to make their own tools, and it is almost impossible for an anvil/hammer to breakdown. The machinist equipment you mentioned should be included in the list. I would be happiest if the machinists had a blacksmithing hobby. Using your equipment can you build a duplicate? If the machinist level is going to be the basis of you colony, they must be able to rebuild any piece of their own equipment. Bessemer Converter, you bet I want to take one. On Mars it might be a good way to remove carbon from atmosphere and thus produce Oxygen as a byproduct. Atmosphere: This is a biggy. I believe you have hit almost all of the pros and cons. I stuck with the Earth normal mix for the plants. But ideally plants would be in a high CO2 atmosphere. I believe they use 5psi of pure O2 in spacesuits and that might work well for the human/animal habitats. But that would require that the gardeners suit up before going to work or

dan_casale · Dec 2, 2004

Why leave Earth? I would like to take a quick post and review why we are moving out into space, and why we would want to build colonies on Moon/Mars/Asteroids. Sounding Rockets: Suborbital rockets that provide a few seconds (to minutes) of weightlessness. Typically used for low budget research projects or projects that can be completed with the allotted time. With the successful flight of SpaceShip-1, tourism may be on the verge of breaking into this market. The response to tourist sub-orbital flight has been overwhelming. I can't think of any other resources that are available to this market. Low Earth Orbit (LEO): Currently populated by ISS, earth observing satellites, and GPS satellites. I believe the major players are millitary, NASA and research. The resources available are: Vacuum, radiation a good view of Earth, a good view of the stars, access to the Earth's magnetic field, access to the Van Allen radiation belts, protected by Earth magnetic field and over 20 hrs of sunshine per day. There is a lot of talk about tourists for this market, but at ~$10,000/lb the market might be very limited. As launch costs drop, this market will grow. This market will also be fed by the success of the sub-orbital tourism market, as tourists seek greater and greater thrills. Geosych Orbit (GEO): The prize winner here is communication satellites. I can't invision much of a tourist market here. The Earth view wouldn't be as good as LEO and there isn't much new to see. However as communication satellites get larger and more complicated, repairing communication satellites might become a good business. The resources here are about the same as LEO. One major difference is that GEO is beyond the protection of the Earth's magnetic field. Moon: Consistently at three days travel time (with current technology), the moon represents the closest source of mineral resources. As pointed out by Frodo in an earlier post, the

eldensmith · Dec 2, 2004

Given the relative abundance of CO2 and H20 on Mars combined with ready access (no smelting of rocks needed) I believe Mars would be an easier place to establish a largely self sustaining colony. You can even sequester nitrogen from the Mars atmosphere - - impossible on the Moon.

mental_avenger · Dec 3, 2004

To this point I have tried to put no distinction on the colony location. The differences between the two locations dictate that the requirements will be significantly different. The relative distance to the two locations dictate significant differences in the way they are set up. I am not sure why you are attempting to make them appears similar, unless it is an attempt to make the Moon appear to be more reasonable to the Mars crowd. Whatever it is, it really cannot work. As for creating ten identical separate colonies, I don't see how that is practical. As Mars is colonized, the people who will be needed at different stages will vary dramatically. The only practical way to set up a viable colony is to design each mission separately, including those personnel that will be most useful at that stage. For instance, initially, the greatest need will be for electricians, mechanics, engineers, and geologists. Paramedics, doctors, cooks etc. will be included as needed. Building a colony will have to be a team effort, and splitting up personnel and supplies will duplicate efforts in some areas, and create shortages in other areas. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> Our Solar System must be passing through a Non Sequitur area of space. </div>

halman · Dec 3, 2004

Dan_Casale, In your post regording 'Why leave Earth', under the 'Moon' section you say that the Moon is the first place that a self-supporting colony can be built. While this is true, I have to wonder if it will work out that way. I think that we are going to discover that the decision to start a colony is a convuluted, complex process, which may take decades to reach fruition. On the other hand, the Moon is likely to see the establishment of numerous bases, which are kept staffed constantly with rotating crews. These bases will be in support of mining and resource collection, power generation, mass launching, scientific research, and prospecting, among others. Just as the year round presence at McMurdo Station does not qualify as a colony, so the early bases on the Moon will not be considered colonies, even though they will be learning to be self-sufficient. At some point, people might elect to take back-to-back rotations, and establish a more permanent life style. But it will not be a colony until family units decide to emigrate for life. On the other hand, Mars will have much less commercial activity at first, and the decision of establishing a colony is likely to be much more straight forward, yes/no, go/no-go. The decision to begin a colony is likely to be tabled until such time as the financial, logistical, and staffing situation will allow a sustained prgram of importing personnel, equipment, and energy, to allow a colony to go from an initial landing site to dug in, growing food, and producing tools in a span of a few years. After the first push, which could introduce several hundred people to the colony, a more relaxed process of importing more people and equipment can be carried out over the next 20 to 30 years, allowing the colony to grow at the rate that it can develop new habitat, food supplies, oxygen, and energy. So we will probably never see a colony established on the Moon, just bases which become more and <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> The secret to peace of mind is a short attention span. </div>

mental_avenger · Dec 3, 2004

Mars Mission 1st team 1st Mission Colonists: 60 (30/30 - male/female under 35) 1 - Doctor/vet 1 - Dentist 1 - Optomotrist 1 - Chemist 1 - Biologist 1 - Astronomer 2 - Environmental Engineer 3 - Paramedics/Firemen 10 - Farmer/rancher 3 - Mechanical Engineers 1- Structural Engineer 2 - Machinists 2 - Electricians 2 - Computer Programmers/network engineers 1 - Journalist/Recorder 15 - Miners/Geologists 3 - Cooks 10 - Mechanics/Welders All personnel will also be trained as EMT's and as firefighters. In addition, all colonists will be cross trained in agriculture and will help with tending the gardens. Equipment launched before colonists: Big Al Mining equipment: Trucks Bulldozers Backhoe Skid-steer (Bobcat) Smelter Welding equipment Tunnel Boring Machine Habitat Human/animal Compressors Solar panels Electrolysis machine - for spliting water. Spectral analizer Spare parts Habitats will be pre-wired, pre-plumed robotic cargo vessels. Once the supplies are removed (possibly to storage tents), the habitats will be ready for colonists to move into. They could be connected together in a prearranged formation to construct the basis for the colony. Mining Goals: Oxygen Hydrogen Water Carbon Nitrogen Silicon Aluminum Helium-3/Helium Platinum group metals Iron Habitat goals: 72º F. .6 Bar atmosphere with necessary composition. 100 sq ft personal space per colonist 1000 sq ft open space per colonist CELSS type recycling system after 3 years Room for 10,000 colonists within 20 years Economic goals: Electronic/Information Trade with Earth/Moon/Mars Self sufficient within 20 years Population goals: Year/#/comments 1 - 120 - 2 launches from Earth <</safety_wrapper> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> Our Solar System must be passing through a Non Sequitur area of space. </div>

crossovermaniac · Dec 3, 2004

Mental_Avenger wrote: I don't buy that. Not at all. I have a small drill/mill, and it is amazing what I can produce with that relatively simple machine. I also have access to my brothers' 14' engine lathe, turret lathe, vertical mills, and other machine equipment. Some of the things we turn out look as if they came from a major factory. The right tools can bring you from 1800 to the present in one step. I'm thinking about starting my own personal machine shop...someday...in the far future...when I have money to spare. How much did all of that cost?

dan_casale · Dec 3, 2004

Mental: You will need to point out the differences in the equipment between Moon/Mars colonies, because I can't see it. A loader on the moon will look/work just like the one on Mars. The difference will be that the one on the moon won't be able to dig as fast because of the lesser gravity. Which should also mean that it will be longer between repairs. The loader on the asteroid will need some way to attach itsself to the asteroid so it can dig. I can see where you would take additional equipment to Mars. For example, an air compressor could supplement the CO2 in your greenhouses from the Martian atmosphere. But the scrubbing system to remove CO2 from the habitat is still the same. The water recycling systems are the same. As there is more water on Mars than the Moon, it will be easier to supplement the original supplies. I have tried to review sub-system by sub-system and the only thing that seems to change is the power generation system. The only substitution being nuclear for solar. I like your changes to the personnel list. But I wonder if it would be possible to combine the Dentist, Astronomer, and Optomotrist with someone else, that could free up two or three positions. Your comments about the shipping containers is right on the mark. Everything that goes should be able to do double duty. Your colonist exchange policy is much stricter than mine but I don't have a problem with it. I am a little supprized that you didn't pick up the challenge of listing the Martian resources. It is still open for anyone to complete. EldenSmith: Good points and quite true, Mars has more resources or resources that are easier to get to than the moon. Halman: Your description of how the moon will be colonized is probably quite close to what the reality will be. But if we were to go with the intent to colonize, what would you take? Everyone: What order are things launched from Eart

halman · Dec 3, 2004

Dan_Casale, As far as what to take on a colonizing trip to the Moon, I haven't given it much thought. For one thing, the store is right around the corner, so to speak, so rather than taking everything imaginable, we can get by with bare essentials, such as inflatable habitats, a bulldozer, Solar generating system, self contained sick bay, a couple of tractors for surface travel... I could list all kinds of things which might be useful, but I would have to sit down and do the same kind of analysis that you have done, because I have been more concerned with seeing people get back to the Moon than I have been on figuring out what will be needed to live there. All of this speculation concerning how to colonize is going to be worth diddlysquat if we can't come up with the means to get back to the Moon, at least. If we cannot come up with the gumption to get to the Moon, then anywhere beyond that is going to be a very difficult proposition. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> The secret to peace of mind is a short attention span. </div>

mental_avenger · Dec 3, 2004

I'm thinking about starting my own personal machine shop...someday...in the far future...when I have money to spare. How much did all of that cost? If you look around, you can get some good deals. I bought the Drill/Mill from my brother for $800, which was a deal. I also bought a lot of collets, milling cutters, DRO, and other accessories from eBay pretty cheap. He bought the Jet 14” Lathe for about $5000, the Hardinge turret lathe for about $2000, the Bridgeport Vertical Mill for about $4000, and the Supermax for $2500. eBay is a great place to shop for small tooling, but freight will eat your lunch on big machines. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> Our Solar System must be passing through a Non Sequitur area of space. </div>

mental_avenger · Dec 3, 2004

You will need to point out the differences in the equipment between Moon/Mars colonies, because I can't see it. Moon: Surface vehicles will require significant heating/cooling systems to cope with the -315º /+230º temperatures. This will be difficult without a significant atmosphere to aid in heat disipation. They will also require heavy radiation shielding. The deep powder covering hard rock, combined with 1/6th gravity will mean a very specific type of vehicle. It will need all that weight from the heavy shielding for traction, but will also have to deal with the disproportionate inertia. Mars: Surface vehicles will require no more heating/cooling systems than an vehicle on Earth, probably just an ordinary car heater. They will require less than half the radiation shielding of a moon vehicle. The relatively soft soil type, combined with the .38 gravity, will allow a vehicle that is more similar to standard Earth vehicles. In fact, I expect Mars vehicles to look a lot like Earth counterparts, but with all electric drive. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> Our Solar System must be passing through a Non Sequitur area of space. </div>

mental_avenger · Dec 3, 2004

As far as what to take on a colonizing trip to the Moon, I haven't given it much thought. ....................can get by with bare essentials, such as inflatable habitats, Because of the extreme heat/cold, and especially because of the hard radiation, inflatable habitats will not do, not even for the short term. It is either burrow underground, or die. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> Our Solar System must be passing through a Non Sequitur area of space. </div>

dan_casale · Dec 3, 2004

The sun/shade temperature differential. Good point. Mostly it is a matter of moving the heat around and dissipating 1kwatt/sq meter of sunlight. I'm sure that if we thought about it we could come up with some bolt-on application that would resolve the problem. Might be as easy as putting a reflective tinting on the windows. I think you might be over estimating the effectiveness of the Martian atmosphere. At 1% of Earth's, I would suspect that your cooling problems would be about 75% that of vacuum. As for dealing with the inertia, it will be something the driver will have to adapt to. I would think that Martian soil would be twice as compact as Lunar soil due to gravity differences. I suspect the rovers leave tracks so easily because of a process simular to frost heave. Just a guess on my part.

eldensmith · Dec 3, 2004

What about LOX / methane internal combustion for Mars rovers. Nothing like a 4x4 powered by Detroit iron for getting out of a tight fix.

mental_avenger · Dec 4, 2004

I think you might be over estimating the effectiveness of the Martian atmosphere. At 1% of Earth's, I would suspect that your cooling problems would be about 75% that of vacuum. A simple misunderstanding. My comment about heat dissipation was only in regards to the Moon, no reference to Mars was intended. While the Moon will require significant heat dissipation in the daytime, vehicles on Mars will probably never require it. For reference, check how much of the Moon suit was dedicated to heat dissipation. As for dealing with the inertia, it will be something the driver will have to adapt to. It is more than adaptation. 6 times the interia/weight ratio will require specialized designs. I would think that Martian soil would be twice as compact as Lunar soil due to gravity differences. AFAIK, the difference is more than that. As I understand it, the Moon is mostly hard rock covered by a fine powder, whereas Mars has actual “soil” in many areas, covered with powder. More testing will have to be done to determine the ordinary structure of each place. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> Our Solar System must be passing through a Non Sequitur area of space. </div>

mental_avenger · Dec 4, 2004

What about LOX / methane internal combustion for Mars rovers. Nothing like a 4x4 powered by Detroit iron for getting out of a tight fix. Too many moving parts, and too many reciprocating parts. Electic traction motors will power all Lunar and Martian vehicles. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> Our Solar System must be passing through a Non Sequitur area of space. </div>

dan_casale · Dec 4, 2004

EldenSmith: I have to agree with Mental on this one. Internal Combustion Engines are much to maintenance intensive and fuel inefficient for applications off Earth. Additionally the process to create fuel will be too energy intensive. There are several easier paths, Fuel Cells and batteries would be easier ones. Mental: I don't see the heat management on equipment being as big of a deal as for the astronauts. Luckly we have some experience in both locations (Car sized Lunar rovers and several robotic Mars rovers), I'll see what I can find out. I'll see if Shuttle_Guy has any references that might help. If you have some links to the suits I would like to review them.

mental_avenger · Dec 4, 2004

And the one thing that Mars mission folks will need that you can't train for on the Earth or an orbital station, and that's Vacuum Discipline. We have heard that argument too often, and it is totally invalid. There is no need to “train” people in one dangerous environment so they will be “aware” in another dangerous environment. That kind of training unnecessairily risks lives, and is thousands of times more expensive than the same training on Earth. In addition, the notion that people have to be “scared” into doing it right by placing them in mortal danger is proven wrong by our current training for astronauts. The Moon is NOT required as a “testing ground” for anywhere else. Such testing can be done on Earth, faster, easier, MUCH more safely, and thousands of time cheaper. Over the near term (20-50 years), a base on the Moon is far more likely, and far more useful to Earth, than an expedition to Mars. Notice how you conveniently compare a “base” on the Moon with an “expedition” to Mars. Turn that around and you have; Over the near term (20-50 years), a base on Mars is far more likely, and far more useful to Earth, than an expedition to the Moon. For this reason it seems to make more sense to try to figure out how the Moon can be useful in preparation for future mission to Mars, rather than how it can be avoided. And there's the defect. Still trying to figure out how to make the Moon useful in preparing for Mars, when it is so obvious that Mars Direct makes more sense. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> Our Solar System must be passing through a Non Sequitur area of space. </div>

eldensmith · Dec 5, 2004

No, no, and no again. Cislunar space offers far more in the way of useful technologies and directly Earth-beneficial economic opportunities than Mars. Neither location will offer any economic benefit remotely close to what it will cost to go to either the Moon or Mars. It will boil down to which destination people think is more "cool" But why engage in the same-old same-old tired Moon versus Mars? I like Rick Tumlinson's approach" "MoonMars" is one word, not two.

halman · Dec 5, 2004

Mental_Avenger, I had not considered the radiation problem when I mentioned inflatable habitats. That said, I think that we are ignoring the incredible ingenuity which usually results with humans being faced with a necessity. Because there have been no serious plans to return to the Moon until just recently, (if there are indeed such plans,) no one has applied an all-out solution search to dealing with radiation on the Moon's surface. It may well be that nothing will work except several meters of regolith. But I would not be unduly surprised if a totally unexpected solution were to pop up. Finding materials which are reflective to certain bands of radiation has never been of any great worth, when a few tons of lead would do the trick. Portable sucperconducting magnetic shields may be perfected, or a rigid cassion which is dropped into a hole made by explosives, a habitat inflated inside, and more explosives used to bury the cassion. I will freely admit that I am using unlikely solutions, but I wish to illustrate how we find ways to work around problems. Certainly, some form of radiation sheilding which does not depend on shear mass will have to be found if we are to have any success in using space. Not the planets, but space. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> The secret to peace of mind is a short attention span. </div>

eldensmith · Dec 5, 2004

Boron doped polyethylene makes a dandy radiation shield. That and keep your water supply in bags hung from the ceiling. Curious note. Land a re-launchable rocket on Mars, make fuel with Zubrin's Sabatiers and load Martian water melted from the permafrost as payload. Delta V to the Moon is far less than from Earth. What does Mars export? Water to Luna. Or polyethylene made from Martian CO2 & H2O with the process powered by a nuclear reactor. Make the rocket fuel on Mars as well. = = = Send two Earth Return Vehicles as part of the MarsDirect mission architecture and two nuclear reactors. Crew comes back to Earth and one ERV full of water heads for lunar orbit. Add the cost of the 2nd ERV and nuke. Subtract the launch cost for lifting that much water to Luna. Are we ahead? I dunno, but its a fun idea, at least IMHO. MoonMars - - say it as ONE word, not two.

New Poll: Moon Yes, Mars No

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