edkyle99":2v64sod1 said:
Commercial crew launch is going to take years to enter service, assuming the effort is successful [1]. During those years, the United States will not have a crew launch capability.
That would be true with or without Constellation, aka WfL or Welfare for Lockheed, aka Moon Someday and Mars Someday Even Later. Under WfL, we might get a shuttle replacement by 2017, until which time we would be paying the Russians. Also under WfL, we still wait until 2015 or 2020 for heavy lift, and even later to go to the Moon. So, what is your point?
At least with Commercial Crew there is competition.
Either way, the "Merchant 7" will still go into orbit, with non-NASA people. Tourism first, perhaps eventual orbital industry. We may as well accelerate their efforts, and use them to launch NASA people. They will likely have people in orbit long before the WfL program would have.
[1] (U.S. aerospace hasn't had a very good record of success on big projects like this in recent years. When they've been able to get the technology to work the costs have ballooned or the schedules have slipped by many years. When they've tried to cut costs, the technology has failed. See Boeing 787 and Lockheed Martin F-35 for examples.)
Those are the big companies. Small companies like Bigelow Aerospace and SpaceX have enjoyed success. Like they said about IBM when Microsoft was becoming a bigger player in the PC industry, "elephants can't dance". Boeing and Lockheed are elephants, SpaceX is the mouse. Elephants are afraid of mice.
(they confirmed that on mythbusters, btw. elephants really are afraid of mice! :-O )
The main problem is that Boeing et al are used to government contracts where they get more and more money for doing less and less. We need fixed contracts: $1 billion to do X by time Y. If mission is not fulfilled, you don't get the money. If you spend more than the budget, it is your private loss. Boeing doesn't like that, but that is how business normally works, and that is how it works with SpaceX.
SpaceX is a U.S. company working on a cargo, not crew, hauling contract for NASA.
They have the option to do crew transport once they are proven on cargo.
It may or may not bid on the commercial crew launch project. If it bids, it may not win.
I don't know why they wouldn't bid on it. If they don't win it, someone else will, who also makes their products in the USA, with American workers. Thus, regardless of who wins said contract, it will still be a US space program.
No company, SpaceX included, has announced plans to launch humans into orbit on non-NASA missions.
Bigelow Aerospace comes to mind. Virgin Galactic also (eventually).
By ending Shuttle without a contracted crew-carrying replacement, NASA
I do not see a better idea from your camp. Your idea is to do Moon Someday, Mars Someday Even Later, which would take until 2017 to have a US crew launch. The Merchant 7 will have commercial crew long before then.
--Brian