POLL: Will NASA Ever Go to Mars?

[clay_modeling]

I'd say that Obama's plan can work, but there's the problem of successive administrations that likely will have other ideas. For something like his plan to work, it needs to be established as a long term goal that is protected by law. It literally would take an act of Congress.

Exactly! The space program has long been a pissing contest of Presidents. Each one can't stand to have the last one's plans stay intact, and pretend to be visionary like Kennedy, and change it to put their "mark" on it. Like dogs on a fire hydrant. Meanwhile, NASA gets jerked around in this political badminton and wastes money by having to abandon expensive research, reassign engineers to some new fiddly stuff because some politician "wants jobs" or some such crap that should have nothing to do with space exploration. We're doomed by this process.

 

[Physics_Not_Metaphysics]

I've become convinced that, with or without government aid (or should I say in spite of government aid), the private sector will colonize the LaGrange points, moon, asteroids, mars, and beyond long before the government plans come out of committee.

 

[RVHM]

I've become convinced that, with or without government aid (or should I say in spite of government aid), the private sector will colonize the LaGrange points, moon, asteroids, mars, and beyond long before the government plans come out of committee.

A colony at the Lagrange points is insustainable. The only resource up there is sunlight.

 

[LKD]

A colony at the Lagrange points is insustainable. The only resource up there is sunlight.

You forget... That is the point of being there. (http://www.space.com/businesstechnology ... aming.html) Solar power to send to various locations is a very expensive prospect that will surely be under construction for a long time requiring a constant presence to repair, build, maintain... Add add the deployment of satellite systems, telescopes, communication systems, and this will likely be the first money making location for commercial industry.

If you have a large enough power plant at a Lagrange point, a community will build up around it to utilize it to the fullest.

 

[nschomer]

Not gonna happen if the Republicans get back in the oval office, and that's not a slight on republicans, Obama getting in the first thing he did was kill Bush's plan. Why bother to do the hard work of funding Bush's vision when all it would get him was recognition of the genius visionary leadership of a man he clearly despises. So Obama killed Bush's plan so that he could announce the beginning of his own vision, which will in turn be killed by the next Republican in office, and so the cycle of partisanship slowly kills this country and its future.

 

[LKD]

If these politicians had any brains, they would find 50 billion out of a 3 trillion budget, and just get it done before they leave office. Yeah I know, won't happen, but if they were really interested in doing SOMETHING....

 

[Gravity_Ray]

Not gonna happen if the Republicans get back in the oval office, and that's not a slight on republicans, Obama getting in the first thing he did was kill Bush's plan. Why bother to do the hard work of funding Bush's vision when all it would get him was recognition of the genius visionary leadership of a man he clearly despises. So Obama killed Bush's plan so that he could announce the beginning of his own vision, which will in turn be killed by the next Republican in office, and so the cycle of partisanship slowly kills this country and its future.

^^^^ What he said. Down with Democrates and Republicans.

 

[ellayararwhy]

When I was a pre-teenager in the heady days of Apollo, I built models of spacecraft that were going to get us to mars in 1996! I was jazzed to become the next generation of astronauts journeying to places much farther than the moon. There was boisterous talk of keeping up the momentum all the way to the gas giants in 20 years (does that number sound familiar?). But then I watched Congress and the public turn away from the space program shortly after the moon drives (been there, done that...). By 1974 we abandoned Skylab and were helplessly (and hopelessly) watching it fall out of the sky in '79. My dreams of becoming an astronaut and continuing astro/aeronautical engineering after my technical high school training went down in flames as well.

I'm an example of what can happen when youth aren't empowered to reach for the stars. I'll probably live out the rest of my days with the teeming masses stuck on this rock together, still looking heavenward at too-faint unseen stars dimmed by our pollutions of light, air, land and water.

 

[danhezee]

Do I think NASA will go to mars? Doubt it.

Do I think Obama's plan will work? Yes, since it is much larger than going to boring ole Mars.

Do I think China or Russia will beat the USA to Mars? NO, read this post from selenian boondocks.
http://selenianboondocks.com/2010/04/su ... -in-space/

First off, where are the Chinese and Russian space programs today, compared with ours?

China:

* Has barely started flying its first manned spacecraft in the past five years
* Flies only occasionally, with some years having no flights
* Is five years off from even having the same lift capacity as our EELVs
* Is thinking about launching a small space station sometime this decade
* Is at least semi-competitive on the international launch market, but still not a big player
* Does occasional robotic science missions beyond LEO

Russia:

* Has a good, fairly reliable human launcher they’ve been running for decades
* But can’t afford to fly that vehicle very much except when NASA is footing the bill
* Is operating a portion of a space station that is dependent on NASA for its continued survival
* Is doing fairly well on the international commercial satellite launch market
* Does occasional robotic science missions beyond LEO

Do I think the USA will be the first to Mars? I am 100% positive, COTS and the other programs like it will act like a catalyst spurring an industry which doesn't need or rely on the NASA platform. COTS which started during the last president administration will have its required flight demos completed during the current's administration. I have recently become very pro-Venus, so personally I would like to see a manned orbital missions to Venus first or at least within the timeframe of a few years after the Mars manned orbital mission.

 

[voyager4d]

It is sad to see so much negativity. Why is the glass always half empty?
We need to have faith in what the future will bring in space travel.
It seems a lot of people don’t want to give up the dream that was Constellation. It was a dream not because of its goal, but because of the technology chosen. Technology that would have made any realistic exploration impossible, because it would have been too expensive to operate. And even if it had gotten funding enough to operate, there wouldn’t have been any funding left for any real advances in space tech.

The Constellation program was just about the most expensive way possible to go nowhere slowly.

Instead of this dream, we now have a program that heavily invests in lowering the price of access to space, so we can have an economically reliable space exploration.

I believe that in the next 10 years we will see a huge increase in rocket taking off from US soil. Most of these extra rockets will go to ISS and to the coming Bigelow stations (yes more that 1).
This extra activity alone will help lowering the price of access to space.

Is NASA going to Mars anytime soon, I don’t know, and frankly don’t care.
I said yes, because I prefer the plan, compared to Constellation.
But I’m really more focused on the shorter time goals, to lower the price of access to space, so we can go there more frequently and get more things done.

 

[Eman_3]

Alll one has to do is observe trends. The US was second into space, but since the moon adventure, public, and thus political support has steadily waned. These days, most people, and kids (the future of space travel) are more interested in facebook or some scandal, or playing their Xbox.

Next year, the US austronauts will have to beg a ride on Russian rockets, just to access space. Let's face it, the US space program is so tied up in short-term politics that it has become a tangled mess of grand goals, and failed plans. As long as this mess continues, very little will be accomplished.

Although some dismiss Russia or China from getting to the planets first, this obvious gap in US determination will prompt them to dedicate the required resources to get to Mars. Without a doubt, if it becomes a space race, it will be between Russia and China, with the USA sitting on the sidelines watching history being made, when a human steps foot on a planet.

As far as wishing that somehow private industry will somehow step up and is a fool. The private sector has been engaged in space exploration from the beginning, and all they have accomplished is to be providers for space access. There is a profit to be made in low earth orbit, or launching telecommunication satellites into geosynchronous orbit. But to go to the Moon or Mars to mine minerlas or set up a tourist spot? It would require billions of dollars, and as a stockholder myself, I will never approve a business plan where pretty well every penny is sunk into the venture with the prospect of maybe some profit occuring after twenty years. And that's a best case scenario. No, private industry will go after where there is money to be made, such as low earth orbit or geosynchronous orbit.

To go to Mars or any planet will require strong political will, and the dedication of resources for at least ten years. Most likely twenty. This something the USA is in short supply, and it just won't happen. The day a US citizen steps foot on Mars will be as a passenger on a rocket made in China or Russia. And then again, whoever is the nation that reaches mars first, they will probably shut out the USA, and deny them any experience or access to deep space. The USA shut out the Chinese from access to the space station, don't be surprised if they return the favor.

 

[FictionBecomesFact]

The only way NASA will make it to Mars, despite ever-increasing economic woes due to retiring baby boomers, is if NASA offers Mars prizes for private teams to win. Notice how Google gets its stuff done in space? Not with bureaucracy and winner-picking, but by offering competitive prizes for actual results:

http://www.GoogleLunarXprize.org

NASA has such a program, too:

http://www.centennialchallenges.nasa.gov

But why does that competitive prizes program get well under 1/2 of 1% of NASA's annual bloated, pork-laden $20 billion budget? And we wonder why we keep going in circles instead of to Mars? :roll:

 

[neutrino78x]

Hey, it comes back to what I have said several times on this board. The majority of any space program should be private enterprise, just as the majority of our seafaring program is private enterprise.

Does anyone say "the United States is not a seafaring country" because the majority of ships which fly the US Flag are not US Navy vessels??? If not, why should anyone say we are not a spacefaring country if the majority of rockets and astronauts in space, flying the US Flag, are not NASA vessels???

The ships that went to Jamestown, the first British colony in what is now the United States, while they flew the UK Flag, were not in His Majesty's Royal Navy. But no one would suggest that it was not a British mission because private ships were used.

Some of you need to realize that it is not 1969 anymore. We went to the moon in 1969 because we were concerned that the Soviet Union would get there first, and use it as a nuclear weapons platform. While we have not destroyed our nuclear arsenals (we should, in my opinion, and I am a Trident submarines vet), the Cold War, as such, is over.

Absolutely, the United States of America will be the first to reach Mars. It may not be NASA, but it will be the USA.

It will either be NASA, or it will be a US company, using rockets made in the USA, with US citizen crews. SpaceX is such a company.

--Brian

 

[invisible_ghost]

Of course the USA will get to Mars. I think it is a stupid question really. It is just a matter of time. If the poll asked in what time frame will NASA finally reach Mars, that would have made more sense. So NASA will get to MArs, just later rather then sooner. It might even be possible that another country reaches Mars 1st using conventional propulsion technologies while NASA spends the next decade or two fast tracking the new and up coming technologies. That will allow them to reach Mars sooner and stay longer? At that point NASA will once again leap frog everyone else and take the technology lead again.

 

[FrankT]

Look, they are not even going to make a decision on a heavy lift vehicle until maybe 2015, after which it will take another ten years or so to develop. We won't even have the basic capability in 2030 to go to Mars with Obama's plan. This is a major disaster to our technology base, our space leadership, and our prestige as a nation. Not to say, sure death for our space industrial base, with the layoffs and aging of the technology leaders and engineers, the shutting down of large solid rocket booster manufacture, and the loss of manufacturing sites. Commercial space will get us to LEO, but no single company or consortium will develop the required heavy lift on its own.

 

[Will_T]

To Boldly Go....Nowhere!

Let's face it, American leadership in space is a thing of the past. Simply, we cannot afford it under this current economy.

Our stimulus was wasted on things that did nothing to our economy and mortgaged our nation's future. At the very least the stimulus could have been used to at least stimulate NASA which would have done more than pay for the resurfacing of sidewalks and highway. That's not a matter of politics but a matter of fact.

Next, until our economy turns around we cannot afford to launch or truly develop anything. Without a strong economy and a government budget that can live within its means, we cannot have a robust space program. An historical example of this is during the last seventies, bad economy equals bad space program.

As far as our current president's vision I have several concerns with this stated plans, those mostly arise from my trust of his motives. Why does a president who believes that governmental control is superior to free enterprise does the exact opposite to when it comes to space? Our government has taken over banks, car companies, health care and other financial institutions, yet when it comes to space he is suddenly a big believer in free enterprise. It is the only area I am aware of where he has demonstrated any support for the American free enterprise system, so I am left wondering why here, why space?

However, regardless of any perceived motives, I believe that this idea will prove to be the salvation of the American space program. How many starts and stops have we witnessed with countless number of programs since the founding of NASA? How much effort and capital has been wasted on the continued floundering of a governmental vision of space. If having our space program free from the chaos of the government then that is a good think. However, for the short term the space companies like Space X will depend on the government to help get them going, here's the weakness of this idea.

The government and this administration can free itself of advancing any notable space vision and then blame the private sector when systems or programs are not delivered. In addition, they still maintain the budget strings through the governmental subsidies yet are free to point the finger at their failures.

I also have misgivings about pumping millions of dollars into Russia to taxi our astronauts to IIS. Do we charge them for the power that our solar panels produce? Do we charge them when the touch foot into our modules of the IIS? It makes me sick to see us having to hitchhike to get to a space station that was mostly subsidized by us. We have turned over the keys to space and to ISS to the Russians. It also seems that we have turned the keys to capitalism to them also.

 

[HiGh_GuY]

I can guarantee HUMANS will go to mars...not so sure if it will be nasa... or any other national space agency for that matter.

I like the fact that obama's new plan is for the most part killing constellation, because that deffinately wouldn't have gotten us to mars. But i'm not happy with the timeline set so far. Waiting until 2015 just to CHOOSE a HLV design is ludacris. We need to be choosing and starting to build by 2012, and then starting to test the fully functional HLV followed by missions starting in 2015

Also, I don't like the idea of going to an asteroid first, and what I like even less is going all the way to mars, and either just orbiting in LMO, or setting foot on a martian moon then leaving. when we go, We should do it with a worthy cause and land on the surface.

 

[none12345]

Will nasa go to mars? Interesting question isnt it.

Could nasa go to mars, theoretically speaking. I think the answer is yes.

Can nasa go to mars under its current political mandate? I think the answer is a firm no. And this has nothing to do with obama. The past 40 years have shown us that nasa's mandate is flawed. Every administration that comes into office guts the previous effort. Or worse promises big and funds nothing.

So, will NASA go to mars as things stand now? Very unlikely, in the next 30 years. (baring a breakthrough in inertial engineering that is, if thats even physically possible)

We could have been on mars 30 years ago for less cost then the ISS. The technology is there, the will is NOT. The funding is NOT.

At this point im hoping that china does a big FU to us and goes to mars first, alone, or better with russia and excludes the US from the mission. That is the ONLY thing that will light a fire under america's desire to be in space.

If i was china. Thats what i would do. Partner with russia for their technology/experience, and go to mars within the decade. Completely doable, and china can easily easily fund it if they desire. They have the manpower and the resources, they just need to buy some of the technology to do it faster and im sure russia would hop on board for a few seats.

 

[xavalex]

We shall go to Mars, but NASA is unlikely to help. They are plagued with :

-Not big enough interest from a greater, older public.
-Pervasive aversion which permeates everything these days.

Rather, maybe a few tycoons will eventually team up to do it themselves, with just 2 astronauts ready to risk it like in the Apollo days. Fortune favors the brave. Forget about big government for this one.

 

[vladdrac]

The human race cannot afford to NOT build a ship that can reach an asteroid. Its existence depends upon it.

 

[SteveCNC]

I have no doubt in my mind whatsoever that we will get to mars eventually. Will NASA be the driving force behind it ? not sure . Administrations come and go around here and directions change with the wind sometimes so it's hard to say what will happen 15 years from now . Hell I remember being told in 1965 that I had to learn the metric system cause everyone would be on it in 10 years LOL . So to be told that we will or won't be where-ever in 15 years is only laughable to me .

The way I see how things are from a realist point of view is this . You need a direction to go , in order to get anywhere . You may not end up where you thought you were going years before , but at least you got somewhere . That's the best way I can describe our government and how it really works . I honestly believe our only saving grace will be the private sector and inovations from that will drive us in new directions not even concieved as of yet .

 

[fnsgreen]

NASA? Maybe, but most likely some other institution. Or maybe NASA will be a player in a broader organization. I don't think it will be the major player it was in the International Space Station. I believe it's roll will be more subdued. Humanity WILL go to Mars, sometime.

If the commercialization of space works - which I am optimistic that it will - then OUR, as a species, prospects will be much greater. I'm excited about the private industries entrance into low earth orbit. SpaceX and Orbital Sciences partnership is not a setback for NASA, it's a step up for all of us. Elon Musk talks of reaching Mars as part of HIS future aspirations, I don't believe he is thinking of going as a NASA subcontractor. I see NASA becoming what it's predecessor NACA was. - A smaller organization as Regulator and Research. Bigelow, Virgin, Linx, they all are set to fire up our imaginations. If Bigelow succeeds and we have 'Hotels' in space, leaving Low Earth Orbit will not be far behind.


In spite of Mr Obama's "It's been done", we will be on the moon again before Mars, anyway. China's entry, not to mention India's will soon have us in a new space race to have a base on the moon. Private Industry will not be far behind, and maybe, in our kid's lifetimes, Bigelow will have Hotels on the moon.

But before the moon hotels, we will be on Mr. Obama's asteroid, and it will not just be another step in our exploration. It will be the beginning of a new industry where, water, fuel and raw materials will be found already in space and much easier and cheaper to access than pulling them from earth's gravity well.

When we first set foot on Mars, all these players, I believe, will go in cooperation. We will need to go for a long time, and we will be using the resources around us, ALL around us.

I'm hopefull!

 

[neutrino78x]

Look, they are not even going to make a decision on a heavy lift vehicle until maybe 2015, after which it will take another ten years or so to develop. We won't even have the basic capability in 2030 to go to Mars with Obama's plan.

Mars for Less can get you to Mars without heavy lift. The only thing heavy lift does is eliminate the need for orbital assembly. You can still send men to Mars by sending modules with commercial rockets and assembling them in space, then sending the humans separately.

This is a major disaster to our technology base, our space leadership, and our prestige as a nation. Not to say, sure death for our space industrial base,

Contracts for commercial crew and cargo delivery to ISS is death for our space industrial base? If anything, it would be a scaling back of the government rocket manufacturing.

Again, most of the rocket launches, space stations, and spaceships should be commercial, if we want a future like Star Wars. Most of our ships in the Sea are merchants, not Navy.

--Brian

 

[neutrino78x]

From the Universe Today article, Check out Augustine's comments regarding the speech on April 16:

Speaking after the President, Norm Augustine – who headed the Augustine Commission review of NASA's future, said that the new program is very close to one of the options his panel offered (option 5-B) and this path would be "worthy of a great nation, and be able to transform NASA from transportation to exploration." Augustine also pointed out that we [people against Obama's plan] seem more eager to accept current Russian technology than to encourage future of our own private industry.

The CEO of SpaceX liked the speech and the policy, according to his press release.

--Brian

 

[SciFi2010]

Going to the (moon,) asteroids and mars? All for the price of one: a VASIMR space vehicle with a nuclear fission (or fusion) reactor? A VASIMR space vehicle would not only decrease the travel time to mars to only 40 days, but could also provide artificial gravity and electro magnetic shielding. In the short-term VASIMR engines fueled by solar panels will be used to keep the ISS space station in LEO orbit, while in the middle and long term VASIMR space vehicles fueled by compact fission reactors could provide ferry services first to the moon and the asteroids and then finally mars.