Russians worried about space prestige (lunar landing)?

[tohaki]

<b>Russian Space Official Urges Government to Support Moon Landing Project</b><br /><i>24.11.2005 16:16 MSK (GMT +3)<br />MosNews</i><br /><br />Russian cosmonauts could land on the Moon in less than a decade, Nikolai Sevastianov, head of the Russian Rocket and Space Corporation Energiya, told Vedomosti business daily on Thursday.<br /><br />http://www.mosnews.com/news/2005/11/24/moon.shtml

 

[tohaki]

I have a question to the experts here. I gather that the Russians could do circumlunar flight and lunar orbit with a Soyuz-Proton double launch. But, would they be able to do a landing without using the Energia?<br /><br />I assume they could resuse the lunar suit and lander from the L3 programme as both seem to have been successful.

 

[shoogerbrugge]

technical possible? well maybe, energia is gone, but engines are still there.<br /><br /><br />but in reality they got a snowballs chance in hell.....<br /><br /><br />I only see Russia going to moon for a little bit of cash on a commercial flight, which would be extremly cool. And maybe a moon probe is a possibility, but other then that. Nah, ain't happening.<br /><br />

 

[tohaki]

I agree that it is extremely unlikely, but it is interesting to speculate nevertheless.

 

[krrr]

It would be very helpful for the Russians to have a cryogenic upper stage to serve as a trans-lunar insertion stage. Actually, the KVRB has flown on Indian launchers and an adaption for Proton (and/or Angara) is planned to be ready in 2011.<br /><br />Given the KVRB's availability, one back-of-the-envelope scenario goes like this:<br /><br />A KVRB would be launched by Proton or Angara-5. In LEO, it would dock with another, possibly Fregat-derived stage (around 7 tonnes), and a manned Soyuz. The KVRB would do the TLI and the Fregat would be responsible for LOI and TEI (possibly with a little help from the Soyuz' own propulsion).<br /><br />So one Proton and two Soyuz launches would enable a lunar orbital flight.<br /><br />The (small, ~9 tonnes) lunar lander could be delivered into lunar orbit in a similar fashion. There it would rendezvous with the manned Soyuz for an Apollo-style landing.<br /><br />Altogether two Proton and four Soyuz launches for a minimal lunar mission.<br />

 

[tohaki]

Here is a new article regarding the circumlunar tourist proposal:<br /><br />http://www.mosnews.com/news/2005/11/29/moonvoyage.shtml<br /><br />One paragraph caught my eye:<br /><br /><blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr /><p>“A project for flights around the Moon really exists and we are currently studying it,” said Alexei Krasnov, head of the agency’s department of piloted programs. “This flight may cost about $100 million for a tourist.”<p><hr /></p></p></blockquote>How much should we read into that?

 

[arezn99]

krrr:<br />It would be very helpful for the Russians to have a cryogenic upper stage to serve as a trans-lunar insertion stage. Actually, the KVRB has flown on Indian launchers and an adaption for Proton (and/or Angara) is planned to be ready in 2011. <br /><br />Given the KVRB's availability, one back-of-the-envelope scenario goes like this: <br /><br />A KVRB would be launched by Proton or Angara-5. In LEO, it would dock with another, possibly Fregat-derived stage (around 7 tonnes), and a manned Soyuz. The KVRB would do the TLI and the Fregat would be responsible for LOI and TEI (possibly with a little help from the Soyuz' own propulsion). <br /><br />So one Proton and two Soyuz launches would enable a lunar orbital flight. <br /><br />The (small, ~9 tonnes) lunar lander could be delivered into lunar orbit in a similar fashion. There it would rendezvous with the manned Soyuz for an Apollo-style landing. <br /><br />Altogether two Proton and four Soyuz launches for a minimal lunar mission. <br /><br />I think a more simple scenario is possible. <br />A KVRB + Fregat (on top of KVRB) would be launched by Proton M. A Soyuz spacecraft launched by Souz rocket will dock with<br />Fregat. KVRB will do TLI and undock from Fregat + Souz spacecraft. Then Fregat will do LOI and TEI (in part). <br />So one Proton M and one Soyuz launches would enable a lunar orbital flight. <br /><br /><br />

 

[tohaki]

<blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr /><p>A KVRB + Fregat (on top of KVRB) would be launched by Proton M.<p><hr /></p></p></blockquote>Won't that be a too heavy payload?<br /><br />By the way, how much spacecraft in lunar orbit (in kilograms) will a KVRB/Fregat combination give you? Will you be able to keep the orbital module, for example?

 

[krrr]

<font color="yellow">Won't that be a too heavy payload?</font><br /><br />Yes indeed. The KVRB would have to be only partially filled or would have to burn a few tons before reaching LEO. The combined delta-v of that plus Fregat plus Soyuz wouldn't be sufficient for a low lunar orbit.<br /><br />In my calculations I used:<br /><br />KVRB: dry = 3700 kg, wet = 21600 kg, Isp = 461 s<br />Fregat: dry = 1400 kg, wet = 6835 kg, Isp = 327 s<br />Soyuz: mass = 7220 kg, spacecraft delta-v = 390 m/s<br /><br />KVRB data is estimated, includes 200 kg for docking infrastructure. Fregat dry mass includes 300 kg for docking infrastructure.<br /><br />That gives a delta-v of 3150 m/s for KVRB+Fregat+Soyuz, just right for TLI. Fregat+Soyuz delta-v is 1568 m/s, which is not quite sufficient for LOI and TEI, so the Soyuz would have to help a little.<br />

 

[tohaki]

<blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr /><p>Soyuz: mass = 7220 kg<p><hr /></p></p></blockquote>That answers my question. You could get a complete Soyuz into lunar orbit. That is a fascinating thought with only three launches.<br /><br /><blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr /><p>Fregat+Soyuz delta-v is 1568 m/s, which is not quite sufficient for LOI and TEI, so the Soyuz would have to help a little.<p><hr /></p></p></blockquote>How much is lacking?

 

[tohaki]

<blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr /><p>The (small, ~9 tonnes) lunar lander could be delivered into lunar orbit in a similar fashion. There it would rendezvous with the manned Soyuz for an Apollo-style landing.<br /><br />Altogether two Proton and four Soyuz launches for a minimal lunar mission.<p><hr /></p></p></blockquote>I think it would make sense to use the LK as it was tested successfully several times. I looked it up and the mass is only 5,560kg. Obviously it doesn't have to leave lunar orbit again, so perhaps we could get away with one less launch?

 

[krrr]

I have a piece of software named LTO Calculator by JAQAR which allows you to calculate optimal earth-moon trajectories. Recommend! There's a commercial versions which has many additional options.<br /><br />For instance, in December 2005 the best opportunity (from a 51.5 degrees 200 km orbit to a 100 km polar lunar orbit) occurs on December 8, 13:00 UTC.<br /><br />Delta-v for TLI is 3131 m/s, delta-v for LOI is 795 m/s. Travel time is 4.6 days.<br /><br />The free version of the LTO calculator doesn't allow you to calculate earth-return trajectories, but I have reason to believe that the delta-v is similar to LOI, probably even a bit lower.<br /><br />So the total delta-v for LOI+TEI for a 100 km lunar orbit would be ~1600 m/s under optimal circumstances. No margins included.

 

[krrr]

<font color="yellow">I think it would make sense to use the LK as it was tested successfully several times. I looked it up and the mass is only 5,560kg. Obviously it doesn't have to leave lunar orbit again, so perhaps we could get away with one less launch?</font><br /><br />The LK was lowered to the lunar surface by a Block-D lunar "crasher stage". Only the very last part of the landing was done by the LK's own propulsoin. Therefore, an LK which would do both descent and ascent by itself would be heavier.<br />

 

[tohaki]

<blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr /><p>I have a piece of software named LTO Calculator by JAQAR which allows you to calculate optimal earth-moon trajectories. Recommend!<p><hr /></p></p></blockquote>Thanks for the tip... <img src="/images/icons/smile.gif" /><br /><br /><blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr /><p>So the total delta-v for LOI+TEI for a 100 km lunar orbit would be ~1600 m/s under optimal circumstances. No margins included.<p><hr /></p></p></blockquote>That is very close, so it shouldn't require a long burn from the Soyuz (TMA-LOK? <img src="/images/icons/smile.gif" />).<br /><br /><blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr /><p>The LK was lowered to the lunar surface by a Block-D lunar "crasher stage". Only the very last part of the landing was done by the LK's own propulsoin. Therefore, an LK which would do both descent and ascent by itself would be heavier.<p><hr /></p></p></blockquote>I see, so it would need the Fregat stage even though it wouldn't return to earth.<br /><br />By the way, how did the Soyuz 7K-LOK get out of lunar orbit if the Block-D crashed on the surface?

 

[arezn99]

Won't that be a too heavy payload? <br /><br />Yes indeed. The KVRB would have to be only partially filled or would have to burn a few tons before reaching LEO. <br />The combined delta-v of that plus Fregat plus Soyuz wouldn't be sufficient for a low lunar orbit. <br /><br /><br />A low lunar orbit is not necessary for a (only) lunar (for example, commercial) orbital flight!<br /><br />So, if one Proton M (with KVRB and Fregat) and one Soyuz launches are used, <br />what lunar orbit (100 km - N? km) can be reached for Soyuz spacecraft? <br />

 

[krrr]

If you want to manage with only one Proton and one Soyuz launch, why not use only a fully loaded KVRB (with its superior Isp) instead of a partially loaded KVRB plus Fregat combo?<br /><br />Assuming a KVRB with 21600 kg wet mass and 3700 kg dry mass, delta-v would be 4388 m/s with a 7220 kg Soyuz as payload.<br /><br />That would be sufficient for an elliptical 4-hour lunar orbit of 100x2300 km (TLI 3140 m/s, LOI 510 m/s, TEI ~500 m/s) with some margin for course corrections and gravity losses.<br /><br />Only problem is the boil-off that occurs with LOX/LH2 stages. Today's cryogenic stages are not designed to last longer than a few days (hours?). I believe extending their lifetime would mean an increase in dry mass for insulation and/or a sophisticated boil-off control scheme. <br />

 

[arezn99]

Krrr, THANK YOU very much for calculations.<br /><br />If you want to manage with only one Proton and one Soyuz launch, <br />why not use only a fully loaded KVRB (with its superior Isp) instead of a partially loaded KVRB plus Fregat combo? <br /><br />YOU YOURSELF answered:<br /><br />Only problem is the boil-off that occurs with LOX/LH2 stages. Today's cryogenic stages are not designed to last longer than a few days (hours?). <br /><br />1. KVRB doesn’t still exist. DM-3 is latest modification of venerable DM. So, <br /><br />what lunar orbit (100 km - N? km) can be reached for Soyuz spacecraft?<br /><br />

 

[themanwithoutapast]

Does anybody think the cost estimate of 2 billion is realistic?<br /><br />very rough estimate:<br /><br />1. circumlunar mission<br />1 x Proton launch <br />1 x Soyuz<br />$250million (this is derived from the announcement that if 2 tourists would pay 100 million each, they would be able to fund solely this mission)<br /><br />2. lunar orbit launch + test of lunar lander<br />2 x Proton<br />3 x Soyuz <br />this is basically doubling the procedures followed under 1. - /> 500 million PLUS<br />+ development of a lunar lander<br />+ 1 more Soyuz launch carrying a Fregat propulsion stage<br />estimate of additional costs: 250 million <br />total: 750 million<br /><br />3. lunar landing<br />2 x Proton<br />3 x Soyuz<br />hardware: same as under 2., plus equipment for landing (the lunar lander used under 2. could be integrated into mission 3 - meaning that equipment or scientific instruments will be put into the first lander and the second one would be just carrying crew and supplys, while this would help to reduce lunar lander mass, it would complicate the rather simple mission outline)<br />total: 800 million<br /><br />overall total: 1.8 billion + 20% margin = 2.16 billion <br /><br />Any suggestions where it would be most likely to incur budget overruns?

 

[arezn99]

1. KVRB doesn’t still exist. DM-3 is latest modification of venerable DM. So, <br />if one Proton M (with DM-3 and Fregat) and one Soyuz launches are used,<br />what lunar orbit (100 km - N? km) can be reached for Soyuz spacecraft?<br /><br /><br />I think a new modification of Soyuz spacecraft would be very helpful in the future Russian and international manned missions to the Moon.<br /><br />That new modification of Soyuz spacecraft will have a delta-v of 1000 m/s. <br />So, I estimate (can’t calculate L), the wet mass of the spacecraft is about 8700 kg, including fuel about 2300 kg. Right?<br /><br />Let name the spacecraft Soyuz TMA1000.<br /><br />Soyuz TMA1000 cab be launched from Kourou by Soyuz 2-1b rocket into the LEO with inclination 28 (right?) <br />and it can dock there with LSAM/EDS! <br />So, in some cases (for example, joint missions of ESA, Roscosmos, NASA) Soyuz TMA1000/Soyuz 2-1b would replace CEV/CLV.<br /><br />But Soyuz TMA1000 can be used as well in Russian and commercial flights to the Moon.<br /><br />Above krrr calculated that Proton+KVRB deliver Soyuz TMA to the lunar orbit 100x2300 km.<br /><br />2. So, if one Proton M (with KVRB) and one Soyuz 2-1b launches are used,<br />what low lunar orbit can be reached for Soyuz TMA1000 spacecraft? <br />In this case, Soyuz TMA1000 itself can do TEI. <br /><br /><br /> <br />

 

[krrr]

<font color="yellow">overall total: 1.8 billion + 20% margin = 2.16 billion<br /><br />Any suggestions where it would be most likely to incur budget overruns?</font><br /><br />I think your post is a good summary of what Sevastianov probably had in mind when he issued the statements that started this thread.<br /><br />It's amazing how little the Russians have to spend in comparision with western entities. One could almost say 1 spaceflight ruble = 1 spaceflight US dollar (while the exchange rate is 28 rubles ~ 1 USD).<br /><br />Of course, developing a lunar lander would be the hardest part and the most likely cause of cost overruns and delays. I don't think they can just revive the 1960's LK.

 

[krrr]

<font color="yellow">Soyuz TMA1000 cab be launched from Kourou by Soyuz 2-1b rocket into the LEO with inclination 28 (right?) </font><br /><br />I've heard that the Soyuz 2-1B is going to have a payload of 8350 kg from Baikonur. Of course this would be a bit more from Kourou to low-inclination orbits. However, other Russian launchers (e.g. Proton) can't reach a low-inclination (e.g. 28 degrees) orbit.<br /><br />Still, a Soyuz TMA850 (with 1100 kg of additional propellants) would have a delta-v of ~850 m/s which is about what is required for TEI. Of course, the additional tanks would also add some dry mass.<br /><br />So maybe with some other mass savings your scheme would be feasible.<br /><br />By the way, calculating delta-v is not very hard. It's<br /><br />deltaV = Isp*9.81*ln(wetMass/dryMass)<br /><br />(ln = natural logarithm)

 

[tohaki]

<blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr /><p>Of course, developing a lunar lander would be the hardest part and the most likely cause of cost overruns and delays. I don't think they can just revive the 1960's LK.<p><hr /></p></p></blockquote>Why not? It was tested successfully in orbit three times and they have kept flight-worthy examples that can be studied in addition to the drawings. It doesn't seem like a too complex design, so building some new ones shouldn't be too difficult.

 

[tohaki]

<b>Russian Technologies Can Put Cosmonauts On Moon</b><br /><i>Moscow, Russia (SPX) Dec 02, 2005<br />By Andrei Kislyakov<br />RIA Novosti</i><br /><br />Despite Russia's 30-fold disadvantage in financing its space effort as compared with America's, it has greater chances of being the first in reaching the Moon this time, or perhaps the Mars.<br /><br />http://www.spacedaily.com/news/lunar-05zzz.html

 

[tohaki]

<blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr /><p>I think your post is a good summary of what Sevastianov probably had in mind when he issued the statements that started this thread.<p><hr /></p></p></blockquote>After reading this second article it is clear that themanwithoutapast was spot on.

 

[tohaki]

<blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr /><p>...energia is gone, but engines are still there.<p><hr /></p></p></blockquote>While you are probably correct I just discovered that Roskosmos still lists Energia as one of their available launchers on the official website:<br /><br />http://www.federalspace.ru/RoketsMain.asp