The Death of Gallium: Asteroid mining?

[aaron38]

<p>I just came across this article detailing how several industrial elements, gallium, indium, tantalum, hafnium and zinc will be exhausted within a few decades, with supplies of gallium predicted to last only "a few more years".</p><p>http://www.asimovs.com/_issue_0806/ref.shtml</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>These are elements that are vital to the electronics industry.&nbsp; My designs have been hit hard by tantalum shortages.&nbsp; We have work arounds, but GaAs transistors have specific properties that Si can't match.&nbsp; I don't think there are work arounds.&nbsp; So what is the industry going to do when the gallium runs out?</p><p>We know that asteroids are very rich sources of rare earth elements and metals in general.&nbsp; Will the shortages of these metals on Earth finally be the necessity that drives asteroid mining?&nbsp; It doesn't seem like we're going to have much choice, if this article is correct.</p>

 

[baulten]

Huh, interesting.&nbsp; It certainly could force us to start into space mining.&nbsp; It'd be kind of nice if we had to, ignoring the obvious negative effects it would have on society.&nbsp;

 

[MeteorWayne]

<p><BR/>Replying to:<BR/><DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>I just came across this article detailing how several industrial elements, gallium, indium, tantalum, hafnium and zinc will be exhausted within a few decades, with supplies of gallium predicted to last only "a few more years".http://www.asimovs.com/_issue_0806/ref.shtmlThese are elements that are vital to the electronics industry.&nbsp; My designs have been hit hard by tantalum shortages.&nbsp; We have work arounds, but GaAs transistors have specific properties that Si can't match.&nbsp; I don't think there are work arounds.&nbsp; So what is the industry going to do when the gallium runs out?We know that asteroids are very rich sources of rare earth elements and metals in general.&nbsp; Will the shortages of these metals on Earth finally be the necessity that drives asteroid mining?&nbsp; It doesn't seem like we're going to have much choice, if this article is correct. <br />Posted by aaron38</DIV><br /><br />Of course, there's no real evidence that most of these elements exist in any significant amount on any accessable asteroids. In fact, the mineral (especially rare ones) composition of most asteroids is known in little detail. Dawn will help clarify that for 2 large asteroids (neither very accessable BTW, which is why the first mission is now). A few others have some spectrographic or other data that to my knowledge (which I aadmit is not great on this subject) have not shown any of these elements.</p><p>We need a lot more data before anyone is going to invest the billions required for mining infrastructure without such evidence.</p> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>

 

[Boris_Badenov]

<p><font size="2">gallium, indium, tantalum, hafnium and zinc, these are very important elements, but they are not the only ones that are in short supply. A while back I read that 50% of all the mine-able copper was already out of the ground & in use or in garbage dumps, & the rate of mining&nbsp;more&nbsp;is speeding up. Platinum could be used in inexpensive power cells that operate with alcohol if there was more of it available.</font></p><p><font size="2">Recycling will only get us so far. We need to start asteroid mining now.</font></p> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <font color="#993300"><span class="body"><font size="2" color="#3366ff"><div align="center">. </div><div align="center">Never roll in the mud with a pig. You'll both get dirty & the pig likes it.</div></font></span></font> </div>

 

[aaron38]

<p><BR/>Replying to:<BR/><DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>Of course, there's no real evidence that most of these elements exist in any significant amount on any accessable asteroids.&nbsp;<br />Posted by MeteorWayne</DIV><br /><br />Agreed.&nbsp; But my point is, the resource demands are real and aren't going away.&nbsp; And with Earth&nbsp;pretty well mapped out, it's time to go prospecting again.</p><p>And that needs to be a key NASA focus.&nbsp; I'd be in favor of actually shelving all lunar plans to focus on&nbsp;asteroids.&nbsp; We know what's on the moon and it's pretty boring.&nbsp; It'll be there when we need He3.&nbsp; Having the industrial capacity to mine asteroids (and move them if necessary) is a far more important than more flag planting.</p><p>This morning in the paper there was an article that catalytic converters are being stolen at an alarming rate to get the precious metals, with Rhodium prices now over $10,000 an ounce.&nbsp; Yeah it's a huge investment, but whoever first lasos a precious metal asteroid will be able to build the next Dubai.</p>

 

[MeteorWayne]

<p><BR/>Replying to:<BR/><DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>gallium, indium, tantalum, hafnium and zinc, these are very important elements, but they are not the only ones that are in short supply. A while back I read that 50% of all the mine-able copper was already out of the ground & in use or in garbage dumps, & the rate of mining&nbsp;more&nbsp;is speeding up. Platinum could be used in inexpensive power cells that operate with alcohol if there was more of it available.Recycling will only get us so far. We need to start asteroid mining now. <br />Posted by boris1961</DIV><br /><br />Still, there is no evidence that any of these elements can be reached at less expense than they could be obtained from the low concentrations on the earth's surface. "Running out" does not usually mean there's none left, it means it's no longer economically worth it at the present time. If the price goes high enough, even low grade ores will be worth it, while mining mission to asteroids might cost 10 or 100 or 1000 times as much, with (so far) no guarantee of success, and no indications the elemental recovery would cost less than working our surface harder. </p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Let's remember, so far we have visited a half dozen asteroids close up. Most provided little elemental composition data. The mission to visit the largest ones (Dawn) won't be conpleted for another 7 years.</p><p>Who's going to shell out more than NASA's annual budget (~ 17 $billion a year) to plan such a mission with not even a hint of a profitable payoff at the end?</p><p>I know, having a pragmatist is a pain, but it's my job, apparently... <img src="http://sitelife.space.com/ver1.0/content/scripts/tinymce/plugins/emotions/images/smiley-smile.gif" border="0" alt="Smile" title="Smile" /></p><p>&nbsp;</p> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>

 

[aphh]

<p><BR/>Replying to:<BR/><DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>I'd be in favor of actually shelving all lunar plans to focus on&nbsp;asteroids.&nbsp; We know what's on the moon and it's pretty boring.&nbsp; It'll be there when we need He3.&nbsp; Having the industrial capacity to mine asteroids (and move them if necessary) is a far more important than more flag planting.<br /> Posted by aaron38</DIV></p><p>There is plenty of oxygen on the Moon in the form of regolith. It's also less demanding to launch from the moon than from the earth velocity wise.</p><p>We should be on the Moon already setting up facilities to produce oxygen and learning how to do mining in space. We should be working a lot faster, but the interest in doing this is not there.</p><p>Humans are not very good at planning 20 - 30 years ahead.&nbsp;</p>

 

[BrianSlee]

<p>The Rossetta mission might provide some interesting data to chew on in this regard.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>http://www.space.com/imageoftheday/image_of_day_040312.html</p> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p> </p><p>"I am therefore I think" </p><p>"The only thing "I HAVE TO DO!!" is die, in everything else I have freewill" Brian P. Slee</p> </div>

 

[spacy600]

<p><BR/>Replying to:<BR/><DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>I just came across this article detailing how several industrial elements, gallium, indium, tantalum, hafnium and zinc will be exhausted within a few decades, with supplies of gallium predicted to last only "a few more years".http://www.asimovs.com/_issue_0806/ref.shtmlThese are elements that are vital to the electronics industry.&nbsp; My designs have been hit hard by tantalum shortages.&nbsp; We have work arounds, but GaAs transistors have specific properties that Si can't match.&nbsp; I don't think there are work arounds.&nbsp; So what is the industry going to do when the gallium runs out?We know that asteroids are very rich sources of rare earth elements and metals in general.&nbsp; Will the shortages of these metals on Earth finally be the necessity that drives asteroid mining?&nbsp; It doesn't seem like we're going to have much choice, if this article is correct. <br /> Posted by aaron38</DIV></p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Here is another article with neat graphics, and maps!</p>http://www.newscientist.com/article.ns?id=mg19426051.200

 

[DrRocket]

<p><BR/>Replying to:<BR/><DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>I just came across this article detailing how several industrial elements, gallium, indium, tantalum, hafnium and zinc will be exhausted within a few decades, with supplies of gallium predicted to last only "a few more years".http://www.asimovs.com/_issue_0806/ref.shtmlThese are elements that are vital to the electronics industry.&nbsp; My designs have been hit hard by tantalum shortages.&nbsp; We have work arounds, but GaAs transistors have specific properties that Si can't match.&nbsp; I don't think there are work arounds.&nbsp; So what is the industry going to do when the gallium runs out?We know that asteroids are very rich sources of rare earth elements and metals in general.&nbsp; Will the shortages of these metals on Earth finally be the necessity that drives asteroid mining?&nbsp; It doesn't seem like we're going to have much choice, if this article is correct. <br />Posted by aaron38</DIV></p><p>But these are elements, unlike oil which is a mixture of relatively complex molecules.&nbsp; Why cannot these elements be recovered from the products in which they are presently incorporated, which will presumably become obsolete ?&nbsp; At the very worst one might have to recover them from&nbsp;their oxides or salts. &nbsp;Maybe we should be mining garbage dumps.&nbsp; <br /></p> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>

 

[aaron38]

<p><BR/>Replying to:<BR/><DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>Maybe we should be mining garbage dumps.&nbsp; Posted by DrRocket</DIV></p><p>&nbsp;Oh we will be, it's only a matter of time.&nbsp; And if the gallium shortage hits, then electronics recycling will quickly become mandatory.&nbsp; Likely, your old stuff will have a trade-in value when it's time to upgrade, based on the recoverable raw materials.<br /></p>

 

[webtaz99]

Seems to me that way more than 99.99% of the metals we have mined and purified are still around in one form or another. They don't just dissappear. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>

 

[tampaDreamer]

Replying to:<BR/><DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>&nbsp;Oh we will be, it's only a matter of time.&nbsp; And if the gallium shortage hits, then electronics recycling will quickly become mandatory.&nbsp; Likely, your old stuff will have a trade-in value when it's time to upgrade, based on the recoverable raw materials. <br />Posted by aaron38</DIV><br /><br />I think I'm one of the few that recycles all electronics already.&nbsp; Everything from coffee maker with a timer to old vcr's, monitors, etc. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>

 

[spacy600]

<p>The wars begin.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>" According to a report by activist site Toward Freedom, for the past decade the search for a rare metal necessary in the manufacturing of Sony's Playstation 2 game console has fueled a brutal conflict in the Democratic Republic of Congo.</p><p>At the center of the conflict is the unrefined metallic ore, coltan. After processing, coltan turns into a powder called tantalum, which is used extensively in a wealth of western electronic devices including cell phones, computers and, of course, game consoles."</p>http://videogames.yahoo.com/feature/playstation-2-component-incites-african-war/1231745

 

[Carrickagh]

<p>I read about this also. </p><p>I like the point about asteroid mining, but there would need to be a great deal of prospecting first. Perhaps the first phase might be a fleet of tiny probes (think soda pop cans) that are launched on 2-20 year trajectories to some given target. Each soda pop can is "tuned" to scan for&nbsp;one to a&nbsp;half dozen specific minerals. If it sees say, mineral X, it signals back home on frequency X. Just a long, continuous chirp, like an updated Sputnik. If not, it remains silent.</p><p>This approach might allow low launch costs due to the probe's mass as well as lower costs for signal monitoring. Of course there wouldn't be much data in that signal, but a prospector map could be developed with dozens or hundreds of such probes. Then, more advanced robot scouts could be sent out to explore the "hits."&nbsp;Then, when some larger company wants to go mining, you might be in a position to at least&nbsp;sell them a map with possible "hits."&nbsp;</p><p>****<br /></p> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>

 

[MeteorWayne]

Replying to:<BR/><DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>I read about this also. I like the point about asteroid mining, but there would need to be a great deal of prospecting first. Perhaps the first phase might be a fleet of tiny probes (think soda pop cans) that are launched on 2-20 year trajectories to some given target. Each soda pop can is "tuned" to scan for&nbsp;one to a&nbsp;half dozen specific minerals. If it sees say, mineral X, it signals back home on frequency X. Just a long, continuous chirp, like an updated Sputnik. If not, it remains silent.This approach might allow low launch costs due to the probe's mass as well as lower costs for signal monitoring. Of course there wouldn't be much data in that signal, but a prospector map could be developed with dozens or hundreds of such probes. Then, more advanced robot scouts could be sent out to explore the "hits."&nbsp;Then, when some larger company wants to go mining, you might be in a position to at least&nbsp;sell them a map with possible "hits."&nbsp;**** <br />Posted by Carrickagh</DIV><br /><br />The problem is (being pragmatic) is that soda can sized objects cannot contain the instruments, power, and maneuvering capabilities you imagine at this time. Maybe in a few decades, it would be possible, but right now, it's beyond dreaming. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>

 

[Carrickagh]

<p>The instruments are almost there....the power...perhaps tiny nuke batteries....the propulsion....it might be like threading a needle without the ability to course correct.</p><p>Perhaps this is an opportunity for some type of X-Prize.</p><p>(Think small)<br /></p> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>

 

[JonClarke]

<p>We are not going to run out of any metallic minerals in the near future.&nbsp; In real terms, the cost of most metallic has decreased.&nbsp; Statements likely "We will run out of X in 15 years!" are misleading, that assumes there is no exploration.&nbsp; in relatity exploration has kept up with demand and in some cases exceeded it.</p><p>Much of the world remains unexplored in detail for minerals.&nbsp; Even brownfields areas, those with extensive histories of mining, are turning up new deposits and new reserves.&nbsp; New technology allows lower grades to be mined, metals to be extracted from formerly uneconomic minerals, and deeper deposits to be found and mined.</p><p>Nor are mined minerals completely&nbsp;lost, although there is a wastage.&nbsp; If shortages drive prices up then recycling andm ining of waste dumps becomes more economic.</p><p>Asteroids the solution.&nbsp; Most metals of interest occur in higher abundances in the Earth's crust than in asteroids.&nbsp; there are advantages to living on a highly evolved planet.&nbsp; Remember that ore is not a geologic term, it is an economic one.&nbsp; And typical asteroids are no different to many terrestrial mafic and ultramafic rocks.&nbsp; if we could economically mine asteroids, we could&nbsp;extractthe same elments from terrestrial rocks, at far less cost, because they are here, not out there.&nbsp;</p><p>It's worth noting that you could prove up a world class ore body in almost any metallic commodity for the cost of only one major unmanned asteroid mission.</p><p>Jon</p> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><em>Whether we become a multi-planet species with unlimited horizons, or are forever confined to Earth will be decided in the twenty-first century amid the vast plains, rugged canyons and lofty mountains of Mars</em>  Arthur Clarke</p> </div>