What is going happen to the US space program now

[kelvinzero]

Im getting really worried about this now.

It really does look like they are not just halving the funding to Commercial, they are actually setting about assuring it is delayed while HLV is fast tracked (even without a mission), and then hamstringing it with rules. Starting now and two years of extra cargo flights is what would give us safety and confidence! And this summary says that the exploration technologies budget will be reduced by 90%!

http://blog.nss.org/?p=1882
http://www.nasa.gov/directorates/esmd/a ... y_dev.html
http://www.parabolicarc.com/2010/07/13/ ... more-15367

I would say this is horrific, but I guess it describes the last thirty years. Huge money for massive launchers, chicken feed for life-support, ISRU, radiation protection, ISS research.

There was one major commonality between VSE and FY2011: that HSF was not about exploration or "because it is there". It is about going there to stay. To live and work there. This was explicit in the philosophy for VSE, and FY2011 put real money into the technologies that would actually allow this.

It looks like that dream will just be a blip in the legacy of the shuttle.

I realize Im probably getting a bit melodramatic.. maybe I will feel better in the morning

 

[nimbus]

All thanks to public indifference.

 

[rockett]

Im getting really worried about this now.

It really does look like they are not just halving the funding to Commercial, they are actually setting about assuring it is delayed while HLV is fast tracked (even without a mission), and then hamstringing it with rules.

Not to worry.

THE MOST OPTIMISTIC ESTIMATE FOR COMMERCIAL CREW VEHICLE IS IT WON"T EVEN BE READY UNTIL 2013. (did I say it loud enough?) That particular estimate comes from Elon Musk, with his usual sunny optimism. Nobody else is even putting an estimate out there, not even Boeing. Therefore, there is little in the way of crew launches to be funded at this point.

As for HLV (correct designation would be SHLV) it's NOT REALLY COMPETING WITH COMMERCIAL. It is a whole different class in magnitude of tonnage.

There. Feel better?

 

[EarthlingX]

Im getting really worried about this now.

It really does look like they are not just halving the funding to Commercial, they are actually setting about assuring it is delayed while HLV is fast tracked (even without a mission), and then hamstringing it with rules. Starting now and two years of extra cargo flights is what would give us safety and confidence! And this summary says that the exploration technologies budget will be reduced by 90%!

http://blog.nss.org/?p=1882
http://www.nasa.gov/directorates/esmd/a ... y_dev.html
http://www.parabolicarc.com/2010/07/13/ ... more-15367

I would say this is horrific, but I guess it describes the last thirty years. Huge money for massive launchers, chicken feed for life-support, ISRU, radiation protection, ISS research.

There was one major commonality between VSE and FY2011: that HSF was not about exploration or "because it is there". It is about going there to stay. To live and work there. This was explicit in the philosophy for VSE, and FY2011 put real money into the technologies that would actually allow this.

It looks like that dream will just be a blip in the legacy of the shuttle.

I realize Im probably getting a bit melodramatic.. maybe I will feel better in the morning

I doubt it, i don't feel any better, just more bitter, and i agree with the rest. I go practice my Russian ..

 

[kelvinzero]

Hi rockett,

What you are suggesting, that these requirements only have to be satisfied before crew are actually flown (around or after 2013) is entirely sensible.
Unfortunately my understanding is that they must be met before any contract is entered in to. The only money available for cargo (not crew) is 144m in 2011, so they cannot even keep working on cargo in the meantime.

However Im not sure. This is just based on other people's summaries floating around the internet, such as those links I provided above. We shall see.

SHLV can and almost must compete with commercial. A SHLV can lift people and sandwiches. Given that the SHLV fixed costs must be payed anyway, an SHLV appears cheaper. There is no project I am aware of to create something large enough that it could not be lifted by existing launchers. If we do, to make sense this should cost at least as much as the SHLV launch including fixed costs to make sense. This is a lot of additional money that must come from some other project. And also it is not a good thing to manufacture missions to not be compatible with Commercial launchers.

However what really worried me was the 90% reduction in the exploration technology budget, life support, ISRU and so on, and about a three-fold reduction in robotic precursor missions which presumably will wipe out the one mission that was actually still going to the moon.

This last section (exploration technology and precursor) is to my mind the very last thing that NASA should drop. To my mind this was the core of the breakthrough of common sense made by VSE and continued by FY2011, that the purpose of HSF was not just humans flying through space, but mastering what we needed to know to actually live there.

The justification for a SHLV program should be to stimulate this technology, not eat up its budget. But this is exactly what keeps happening, with the shuttle, with constellation and now this.

 

[rockett]

Hi rockett,

What you are suggesting, that these requirements only have to be satisfied before crew are actually flown (around or after 2013) is entirely sensible.
Unfortunately my understanding is that they must be met before any contract is entered in to. The only money available for cargo (not crew) is 144m in 2011, so they cannot even keep working on cargo in the meantime.

However Im not sure. This is just based on other people's summaries floating around the internet, such as those links I provided above. We shall see.

It's too long to post, but rather than rely on summaries, read the draft and decide for yourself. For Commercial Crew, read "TITLE IV— DEVELOPMENT AND USE OF COMMERCIAL CREW AND CARGO TRANSPORTATION CAPABILITIES", page 36.
http://blogs.chron.com/sciguy/archives/NASA Rockefeller1.pdf

SHLV can and almost must compete with commercial. A SHLV can lift people and sandwiches. Given that the SHLV fixed costs must be payed anyway, an SHLV appears cheaper. There is no project I am aware of to create something large enough that it could not be lifted by existing launchers. If we do, to make sense this should cost at least as much as the SHLV launch including fixed costs to make sense. This is a lot of additional money that must come from some other project. And also it is not a good thing to manufacture missions to not be compatible with Commercial launchers.

However what really worried me was the 90% reduction in the exploration technology budget, life support, ISRU and so on, and about a three-fold reduction in robotic precursor missions which presumably will wipe out the one mission that was actually still going to the moon.

This last section (exploration technology and precursor) is to my mind the very last thing that NASA should drop. To my mind this was the core of the breakthrough of common sense made by VSE and continued by FY2011, that the purpose of HSF was not just humans flying through space, but mastering what we needed to know to actually live there.

The justification for a SHLV program should be to stimulate this technology, not eat up its budget. But this is exactly what keeps happening, with the shuttle, with constellation and now this.

Actually, there are a lot of things you could launch with a Super-Heavy, that nothing else can do. I see it as more of a specialty function launcher for things like reactors, fuel depots, large structures for BEO expeditions, and so on. I wouldn't expect it to be used more than 2-4 times per year depending on the mission. Six at most. Anything else, Commercial launchers are just much more cost effective to use. Besides, if I was on the ISS. I would want my pizza still hot
For more info in the Senate Bill, read "TITLE III—EXPANSION OF HUMAN SPACE FLIGHT BEYOND THE INTERNATIONAL SPACE STATION AND LOW-EARTH ORBIT", "Sec. 302. Space Launch System as follow-on launch vehicle to the Space Shuttle.", page 22.

 

[kelvinzero]

Actually you have to read the document and the interpretations. Laypeople like us probably will not spot the gotchas hidden in a document like that.

SHLV can do a lot of things, but they all require a lot of additional money from somewhere, and I havent seen any plans or budget to do them.