Which Country will be the dominant Space Power in the year 2

[christine16]

Which Country will be the dominant Space Power in the year 2025-2049 ? <br /> Cast your Vote!!!

 

[rfoshaug]

Russia. <img src="/images/icons/wink.gif" /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#ff9900">----------------------------------</font></p><p><font color="#ff9900">My minds have many opinions</font></p> </div>

 

[bpfeifer]

An interesting question!<br /><br />The Chinese have a long way to go, but at the rate their economy is expanding, they could be formidable. Anyone who watches international politics/economics views China as the next 500 lb gorilla. Of course China also has a number of handicaps and could stumble if faced with significant social change.<br /><br />Russia has as much experience, if not more than the US. Today, they are successfully selling both satellite launch and manned spaceflight services around the world. They are certainly the most commercial of thee national programs. Unfortunately, Russia is still in financially troubled waters. They just can’t seem to gather the funding necessary to develop their next generation Kliper spacecraft.<br /><br />I’d love to see the EU do more, but their structure makes it difficult for them to fund any truly large projects. They are modifying one of their launch complexes to handle the Russian Soyuz/Proton, but this will not be enough to get them into the lead.<br /><br />Japan and India both have interesting plans, but they are too far behind, and won’t commit the resources needed to catch up.<br /><br />The US is the only nation with both the financial resources and the operational experience to be the near-term leader in space. NASA’s development plans are fairly flat without a significant increase in funding, and someone else like China could overtake them. NASA is plagued by chronic budget battles in Congress, and it’s future is always in doubt. If you look at the history of the organization, its value has been questioned from the very beginning.<br /><br />So what’s the point of all of this long-winded analysis? I believe that in the next fifty years, private companies may actually take the lead in spaceflight. Not a single nation, but companies located in the US, Russia, and Canada. Multinational corporations will also make use of construction costs in one nation and favorable launch licensing in another. Private launch complexes are <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> Brian J. Pfeifer http://sabletower.wordpress.com<br /> The Dogsoldier Codex http://www.lulu.com/sabletower<br /> </div>

 

[pioneer0333]

When I run for president, I'll triple the NASA budget. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>

 

[moonmadness]

Year 2 huh.<br /><br />I believe china had an emporer or such launch himself into space(probably LEO) on his rocket throne.<br /><br />Though they were surpassed just 30 years later by some guy in the middle east who made it to deep space.<br /><br /><img src="/images/icons/smile.gif" /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p>I'm not a rocket scientist, but I do play one on the TV in my mind.</p> </div>

 

[MeteorWayne]

Don't laugh at her, welcome to SDC.<br /><br />The only reason it says 2 is bacause the othet digits got cut off because of a limit to the number of charachters in the title.<br /><br />I would like to know what the other three numbers were, though <img src="/images/icons/smile.gif" /> <br /><br />Edit to correct gender-MW <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>

 

[skyone]

<br />"I believe china had an emporer or such launch himself into space(probably LEO) on his rocket throne."<br />I think...there was an episode of MythBusters centered around "experimental archaeology" with the rocket throne. Demonstrating, very conclusively, wih fireballs and a lot of wreckage that it had no hope working then or now.

 

[christine16]

yah I saw it <img src="/images/icons/wink.gif" /> rocket throne was a highway to the world of the dead for that guy

 

[MeteorWayne]

Aha, 2025-2049<br />thanks.<br /><br />That's a long way in the future <img src="/images/icons/smile.gif" /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>

 

[christine16]

2025-2049

 

[christine16]

yah not in the past <img src="/images/icons/wink.gif" />

 

[halman]

Christine16,<br /><br />Can one hope that there will be no dominant space power in the quarter century between 2025 and 2049? That perhaps an era of true international co-operation will come about, allowing the financial power of China to be coupled with the launch expertise of Russia and the technology of the United States? If such sharing of resources were to happen, progress in off planet exploration and development would eclipse anything seen so far. Realization that this adventure is not about national pride, but survival of the species would help. <br /><br />Finite resources, a limited capacity for the ecosystem to cleanse itself of the waste that we dump into it, and desire for higher standards of living by billions of people is a recipe for disaster. Imagine if all the world lived as the United States does. Can't imagine it? Probably because it could never happen, given the way that the United States squanders energy, ignores the consequences of greed, and demands the incredible luxury of personal transportation for every trip.<br /><br />But there is a way for everyone on this planet to enjoy the benefits of technology, such as living indoors, eating, and traveling further than 5 miles from the place of ones birth over the course of a lifetime. By utilizing the resources of the Solar System, outside of the Earth's ecosystem, we can mine metals, smelt them down, cast them into lightweight foams, and send to Earth products which can never be produced economically here.<br /><br />Much of the wealth that the United States enjoyed in the last century came from extracting resources that no one else claimed, and turning those resources into goods which other countries could not produce themselves for a comparble price. The frontier on the other side of the sky offers the promise of wealth many, many times what the United States breifly enjoyed. Making that wealth a reality will come much sooner if we work together, rather than treating each other with suspicion <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> The secret to peace of mind is a short attention span. </div>

 

[christine16]

you can see one

 

[brandbll]

Actually, Vegas is giving me 1,000,000 to 1 odds on Tunisia as the biggest space power in 2025. So i put one hundred dollars on it and am gonna keep my fingers crossed. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font size="3">You wanna talk some jive? I'll talk some jive. I'll talk some jive like you've never heard!</font></p> </div>

 

[j05h]

No single country will have space launch capability by 2025. All launches, development and exploitation will be done by profit-seeking international corporations. The nation-state will only matter in terms of how much taxes they pay on the home world. Why are you so obsessed with "Nations"??<br /><br />Josh <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <div align="center"><em>We need a first generation of pioneers.</em><br /></div> </div>

 

[halman]

Christine16,<br /><br />I am sorry, but I do not understand. I can see one what? <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> The secret to peace of mind is a short attention span. </div>

 

[5stone10]

US.<br /><br />With Russia a distant second.

 

[christine16]

you can vote for Multinational Corporations

 

[halman]

Is there a listing for Consolidated-Amalgamated? I figure Con-Am will probably be the real power in space. (As long as the sheriff doesn't mess with them.) <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> The secret to peace of mind is a short attention span. </div>

 

[alokmohan]

I dont think any body can say.We dont know global situation of that time.However asrologers may try and the present post is more of astrology.

 

[christine16]

but no one thinks so <img src="/images/icons/wink.gif" />

 

[alokmohan]

China will prosper.

 

[docm]

Lots of interesting things going on with China, especially socially.<br /><br />Soon they may be leading the world in S02 and particulate pollution and health costs from same. Saw some pic's of Beijing the other day and it looked like Gary, Indiana USA back when it was a steel town. Ick. No wonder they're pushing nuclear generation.<br /><br />With the youth coming of age I also doubt that the Communist Party will be as repressive as it can be now. How this will evolve is up for grabs, but we can hope.<br /><br />Then came the piece that floored me: there are at least 80 million Chinese Christians, and most are in the intellectual, artistic and scientific classes. They also tend to be evangelistic. <br /><br />David Aikman, former TIME Beijing bureau chief and foreign policy consultant, has researched this and based on the current growth rate he estimates that by 2033 China will have 400 million Christians and that they will eventually be the majority of the population. They already outnumber the membership of the Communist Party.<br /><br />Wow...just wow. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>

 

[themanwithoutapast]

Then came the piece that floored me: there are at least 80 million Chinese Christians, and most are in the intellectual, artistic and scientific classes. They also tend to be evangelistic.<br /><br />David Aikman, former TIME Beijing bureau chief and foreign policy consultant, has researched this and based on the current growth rate he estimates that by 2033 China will have 400 million Christians and that they will eventually be the majority of the population. They already outnumber the membership of the Communist Party. <br />-----------------<br />So you are saying none of the Chinese Christians are members of the Communist Party as they are "already outnumbering them"? <br /><br />I somehow fail to see how being a Christian or not is related to living under a supressive regime. There have been and still are countless examples of predominantly Christian population that have a supressive regime.

 

[mithridates]

China's not as repressive as a lot of people would like to believe. The only difference is that when they make progress they do it in baby steps, because they know what happens when you try to do too much too fast. Paying attention to the news shows changes to the death penalty for example a few weeks back - local courts are no longer able to issue the death penalty without the supreme court going over the case, which will reduce a lot of local judicial mismanagement.<br />China now also has 1,000 troops in the UN forces in Lebanon in their efforts to gain a stronger peacekeeping role along with other countries, etc. China's not perfect (nor is it even impressive on a per capita basis in the smaller cities - I've been there a few times) but it's not the scariest country by far. Russia's scarier. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p>----- </p><p>http://mithridates.blogspot.com</p> </div>